Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boise, ID

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FXUS65 KBOI 210849

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boise ID
249 AM MDT Sun Apr 21 2019

.SHORT TERM...Today through Wednesday...The upper level trough
will move south and east today, and precipitation will be confined
to the Idaho side of the forecast area. By this evening, showers
will be further confined to the western Magic Valley and
surrounding area, and by Monday it will be completely out of the
area. Before it goes, it will help create a breezy day across the
Upper Treasure Valley and western Magic Valley, with sustained
winds 15 to 25 mph and gusts to 40 mph this afternoon. A ridge
will build in aloft and bring dry and warmer weather Monday
through Tuesday. Late Tuesday afternoon, a little moisture will
move into the higher terrain of our northern zones, and a slight
chance of showers was warranted there. A few showers may linger in
the West-Central Mountains Tue night, but otherwise it will be
dry through Wednesday. Temps will warm Monday and Tuesday to 5-10
degrees above normal and hold there Wednesday. Some rivers
continue to run high due to recent warm weather and rainfall, but
no flooding is expected.

.LONG TERM...Wednesday night through Saturday...Well amplified
ridge starts off this period bringing well above normal
temperatures and dry weather to all locations. Confidence for the
end of the week is low as models continue to struggle in resolving
whether the northern jetstream or southern dominates. The
GFS/Canadian keep the southern jet more active and therefore
better threat of showers and thunderstorms for Friday as moisture
moves into the region. The ECM on the other hand keeps the
northern branch more active and breaks down the upper ridge as a
weak front slides into the region. The forecast for Friday is
therefore a blend of models including ensemble forecasts along
with climo bringing generally a chance of showers and slight
chance of thunderstorms...mainly over the higher terrain across
the forecast area. Saturday and Sunday models do show a better
consensus as the flow becomes more consolidated over the region as
an upper trough slides down from the Canada/Gulf of AK bringing
cooler conditions to the region with showers possible over the


.AVIATION...Mostly VFR. Showers and thunderstorms (and periods of
MVFR/IFR conditions) are expected through tonight for generally
the KJER/KTWF region northward toward KSUN. Surface wind northwest
15 to 25 kts with gusts to 30 kts, decreasing aft 22/06z. Winds
aloft near 10KFT, north 15 to 30 kts, decreasing to 15 kts aft





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