Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boise, ID

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FXUS65 KBOI 192122

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boise ID
322 PM MDT Sat Oct 19 2019

.SHORT TERM...Tonight through Monday...The current storm system
that has delivered severe thunderstorms and heavy mountain snow
will exit the region overnight. Gusty synoptic winds will
gradually diminish towards sunset though breezy conditions will
continue through the night. The threat for convective wind gusts
will cease as showers and thunderstorms diminish by early
evening. Snow will continue across the e-central Oregon and
w-central Idaho mountains overnight, though intensity and coverage
will decrease as the upper level support shifts east. The heavist
accumulation still looks to wrap up towards midnight tonight.
Otherwise drier conditions set in for tonight. Sunday will see
cloudy skies and another chance of precipitation as a warm front
pushes into the region. Amounts will be lighter with this event
with little measureable precipitation expected at lower
elevations. Snow levels will slope from 4k feet across the
w-central Idaho mountains to around 6k over southeast Oregon by
Sunday afternoon. An upper ridge noses into the Pacific NW for
Sunday night and Monday, pushing precipitation into e-central
Oregon and the w-central and northern Boise mountains. High
tempertures will run 10-15 degrees below normal through Monday.

.LONG TERM...Tuesday through Thursday...Unsettled northwest flow
aloft continues through  mid-week. A high pressure ridge centered
off the California coast expands inland on Tuesday, warming
temperatures to right around normal. On Wednesday, a trough from
the Gulf of Alaska drops to the east of the region, lowering
temperatures 3-5 degrees. Any chance of precipitation will be
limited to the West Central Idaho Mountains, with snow levels
dropping from 7000-8000 ft MSL on Tuesday to 4000-5000 ft on

Thursday night through Saturday night...Clear to partly cloudy
skies with slightly breezy winds are the conditions expected
across the region Thursday as drier zonal flow temporarily has
control. Look for conditions to deteriorate across the extreme
northeastern counties as moisture and instability associated with
an upper level trough begins to move down and drive southward into
the region. Snow is expected to dominate and persist across those
areas with chances for rain in the lowest valleys. High
temperatures are expected to reach normal levels with lows
dropping down to around 7 degrees below normal.


.AVIATION...Mostly VFR with areas of MVFR/IFR in rain and snow
showers and low ceilings. Widespread showers lingering through the
evening causing mountain obscuration. Isolated thunderstorm
activity through the afternoon. Patchy fog possible overnight.
Snow levels: roughly 4500-5500 ft MSL. Surface winds: W/NW 20-30
kts with gusts up to 40 kts. Winds aloft at 10k ft MSL: W to NW

Sunday outlook...Conditions improving to VFR from the west late
tonight with decreasing rain and snow showers. Local MVFR and
mountain obscuration in scattered showers through Sunday, mainly
north of the Snake Basin in ID. Surface winds: decreasing to 10-20
kts tonight and 10 kts Sunday. Winds aloft at 10k ft MSL: NW 30-40


ID...Wind Advisory until 8 PM MDT this evening IDZ015-030.
     Wind Advisory until 8 PM MDT this evening IDZ029.
     Winter Weather Advisory until midnight MDT tonight IDZ011.
OR...Wind Advisory until 8 PM MDT /7 PM PDT/ this evening ORZ061-063.



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