Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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474
FXUS61 KBTV 152001
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
401 PM EDT Tue Oct 15 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure centered over the Mid Atlantic will keep dry,
quiet weather in place today. Wednesday will see increasing
winds as a low pressure system approaches from the west.
Widespread rainfall associated with the system is expected
Wednesday night through Thursday morning. Thursday and Friday
will be cooler with showers tapering off. High pressure returns
for the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
As of 400 PM EDT Tuesday...Surface high pressure will begin to
slide eastward overnight tonight ahead of the well advertised
system for Wednesday into Thursday. Tonight will see partly
cloudy skies and near seasonable temperatures in the upper 30s
to low 40s as warm air advection and increasing southerly winds
move over the area.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 400 PM EDT Tuesday...Consistent with previous trends,
models have continued to hold off on precipitation until late in
the afternoon on Wednesday for western St Lawrence Valley and
then quickly spreads eastward. Overall, thinking that Wednesday
should be a pretty decent day with increasing high clouds and
high temperatures warm into the low to mid 60s. Winds will
increase late Wednesday morning into the afternoon as a
southeasterly 40 kt 925mb jet moves across the area. At this
time, thinking wind speeds Wednesday will be between 15-20 kts
with gusts up to 35 knots possible for favorable downslope areas
along the western slopes of the Green Mountains.

The main forecast highlight of the period is the rapidly deepening
Nor`easter off the southern New England coast for Wednesday
night and during the day on Thursday. Overall, trends have not
budged too significantly with this system with low pressure
tracking out of the Great Lake weakening as the energy shifts to
the dominant low south of southern New England and rapidity
intensifying as it moves off towards the northeast.

Thursday will be a raw and almost winter like day (who prefers
snow to cold rain? *raises hand*) with temperatures maintaining
or dropping slightly throughout the day into the low to mid
40s. The track of the system inside the benchmark will position
the North Country in the favorable position for mesoscale ascent
associated with pretty decent 700mb f-gen late Wednesday night
into Thursday. This time frame between 00z and 12z Thursday will
see the heaviest rainfall with 1-2" inches of rainfall expected
with highest amounts across our southern zones. Chances for
flooding still remain low with rivers near or at base flow,
however sharp rises may be possible on quick responding rivers
such as the East Branch of the Ausable and Otter Creek at Center
Rutland. Localized accumulating snow may be possible for the
highest peaks of the Adirondacks where forecast high
temperatures barely climb above freezing.

Additionally at this time NE winds will strengthen on the
backside of the low Thursday morning and persist throughout the
day around 15- 20 knots, with locally higher amounts in the
channeled Champlain Valley between 20-25 knots with gusts up to
35 knots possible along the immediate lake shoreline. These
winds will slowly abate after 00z, but still remain around 10
knots.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 255 PM EDT Tuesday...Some wrap around moisture still over
the region on Friday so expect showers to continue through at
least the morning hours. Friday will be cool with maximum
temperatures only reaching the mid 40s to lower 30s. From Friday
afternoon through Sunday night drier weather is expected with
surface and upper level ridging taking over for the Northeastern
CONUS. A gradual warming trend takes over and by Sunday
temperatures will warm above seasonal normals once again. Some
overnight radiational fog is anticipated for Friday night and
Saturday night with clear skies, calm winds, and plenty of
moisture due to soaking rain on Wed and Thu. Another large scale
system will impact the region in the Monday night through
Tuesday timeframe, could be another system with a soaking rain.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Through 18Z Wednesday...VFR conditions expected through the TAF
period. Weak westerly/northwesterly flow just off the surface
will continue through the night, preventing any widespread fog
development. Surface winds will back from South to Southeast.
Precipitation will move into the region after 21z tomorrow.


Outlook...

Wednesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Definite
RA.
Thursday: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Windy with gusts
to 30 kt. Definite RA, Definite SHRA.
Thursday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance
SHRA.
Friday: Mainly MVFR, with local VFR possible. Slight chance SHRA.
Friday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
There is the possibility for urban and small stream flooding
Wednesday night through Thursday as moderate to heavy rainfall
will move through the North Country. Looking at the Meteorological
Model Ensemble River Forecasts (MMEFS), a few locations
including Center Rutland Ausable Forks could approach or exceed
minor flood stage with rainfall amounts ranging from 1.5 to 2.5
inches. Widespread river flooding is not anticipated with all
main stem rivers at base flow. Flashier rivers with quick
responses are most likely to approach bankful but the rainfall
will be spread out over a 30 hours period. Another fall concern
for heavy rain events is all the leaf debris as we are now
getting past peak color. Drainage may become less efficient as
storm trains may become partially obstructed. Stay tuned for
later forecasts to any updates to flooding concerns.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LaRocca
NEAR TERM...LaRocca
SHORT TERM...Clay/Duell/LaRocca
LONG TERM...Neiles
AVIATION...Neiles
HYDROLOGY...Clay



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