Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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FXUS61 KBTV 221436

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
1036 AM EDT Thu Aug 22 2019

A cold front will track eastward across the North Country this
morning, bringing isolated rain showers and a westerly wind
shift. In the wake of the front, developing west to
northwesterly winds will allow cooler and drier conditions to
move into the region for Friday and Saturday, with highs mainly
in the low to mid 70s. The next significant chance of
precipitation isn`t expected until the middle of next week.


As of 1030 AM EDT Thursday...Some isolated showers are just
exiting for the forecast area moving northeastward out of Essex
County Vermont. Otherwise, dry weather in place. Analyzing a
surface cold front approaching the area from the northwest,
currently just poised to enter the Saint Lawrence Valley. Ahead
of the boundary, some low and mid-level clouds are still in
place...but expect increasingly sunny skies as the boundary
moves through and scours out a good bit of the lingering
moisture. Still thinking we may see some additional isolated
light showers develop as the front moves through, so
maintaining some PoPs in the 5-25% range today, but all in all
the frontal passage will be relatively uneventful.

Previous Discussion...Surface cold front across the Ottawa
Valley swwd across Lake Ontario will track eastward across nrn
NY and VT early this morning. Anticipate sufficient frontal
coverage to maintain at least isolated coverage of showers as
the front translates ewd. That said, very weak instability and
low/relatively warm EL levels suggest potential for lightning
will be minimal, and kept as 20-30 PoPs for rain showers. In
advance of the front, air mass is humid and combined with near-
saturated soil conditions, leading to widespread stratus and
patchy dense fog. Some of these low stratus will mix out toward
daybreak in advance of the frontal boundary owing to increased
south winds and increased low- level mixing. Will see skies
trend partly to mostly sunny late this morning into the
afternoon hours with a westerly wind shift following FROPA.
Daytime highs will range from the upper 70s to lower 80s across
VT, and generally in the mid 70s across the northern Adirondacks
and St. Lawrence Valley given earlier arrival of low-level CAA.

Looking at generally quiet conditions tonight into Friday,
though trailing mid-level trough will maintain variable mid-
level cloudiness and an isold shower or sprinkle across the nrn
mtns. Low temperatures tonight generally fall into the 50s,
followed by highs Friday in the low-mid 70s. Also, NW winds
around 10 mph on Friday will continue to advect in lower PBL
dewpoints. Should feel noticeably drier with Friday`s 2-m
dewpoints falling into the lower 50s, and even the upper 40s
across the northern Adirondack region.


As of 254 AM EDT Thursday...Nothing really of note for the short term
period through Saturday. High pressure remains at the surface and
mid levels despite a weak vort moving south through 500mb flow.
Moisture with this wave is very limited therefore expecting only
increase in cloudiness. Otherwise, dry forecast in place with highs
in the upper 60s to low 70s with light north/northeasterly winds.


As of 254 AM EDT Thursday...Subtle model differences for the
immediate long term, Sunday through Sunday night, with development
of closed low through the mid-levels and moisture advecting eastward
off the maritimes. Mainly nuisance implications for forecast with a
likelihood of increased cloudiness and possibly some drizzle/light
rain showers during the early morning into daytime hours. Continued
below normal temperatures expected with highs in the low to mid 70s.
Dry weather expected Monday and Tuesday with high pressure in
control ahead of deep upper level trough arriving towards midweek.
Temperatures through the remainder of the period will warm back
towards seasonable norms in the mid/upper 70s to around 80 during
the day and low to mid 50s at night.


Through 12Z Friday...Areas of LIFR stratus and FG at MPV will
dissipate by 13-14Z with increase in low-level S-SW winds.
Otherwise, anticipate just isolated shower activity through 14Z,
mainly affecting PBG/BTV/MPV before shifting east of the TAF
locations later this morning. Not expecting any significant
impacts and lightning potential appears minimal. Should see a
trend toward VFR conditions during the late morning following
frontal passage. Winds at BTV begin southerly at 7-10kts, but
will shift into the west at 10G18kt by early afternoon
following frontal passage. Winds areawide generally diminishing
below 5 kts for tonight.


Friday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX.




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