Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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FXUS61 KBTV 301441
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
1041 AM EDT Fri Jul 30 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front crossing the region will bring showers and a few
rumbles of thunder to the North Country this morning. As this
front moves out of the area, cool temperatures and breezy winds
will follow in its wake. High temperatures today and Saturday
will remain below normal in the 60s to low 70s. Drier weather is
expected on Saturday before precipitation chances increase once
again on Sunday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 1039 AM EDT Friday...No big changes for the 1030 am
update this morning. Have updated pops based on current radar
trends. We still have some scattered rain showers with embedded
heavier rain moving across parts of Northern and Southern
Vermont. Temperatures may rise just a degree or 2 this afternoon
if we`re able to get a bit of sun. Otherwise, going forecast
was in really good shape and I didn`t make any big changes.
Previous discussion follow.

Previous Discussion...Water vapor imagery shows pronounced
upper level shortwave moving into the region. This feature along
with a surface front is responsible for the area of showers
with embedded thunderstorms currently moving across
north/central New York and into Vermont. This area of
precipitation will move through the next couple hours before
exiting east into NH by mid-morning. Generally light
precipitation is expected with rainfall amounts ~0.25", however
locally higher amounts up to 0.75" are possible within embedded
convective elements.

Behind this front, winds have already turned out of the NW
across the St Lawrence Valley. This will usher in a much cooler
airmass behind it. This front feels very fall-like so have held
onto clouds a little bit longer than guidance suggests given
daytime driven instability as cold pool moves in aloft. This
will help limit amount of warming today with high temperatures
only reaching the low to mid 60s. Despite sounding profiles
showing small area of daytime instability due to upper level
trough overhead, not expecting much lingering precipitation
since depth of moisture really shrinks to less than 5000ft after
18z. Winds will pick up in the afternoon hours as mixing
potential increases. Winds this morning will be generally less
than 10 mph out of the NW increasing to 10 to 15 mph with gusts
in the 20 mph range this afternoon.

Clouds should begin to dissipate by late evening with a fairly
chilly night on tap. Overnight lows will be largely in the low
to mid 40s, with low 50s for the Champlain Valley, especially
within the vicinity of Lake Champlain. Below normal temperatures
will remain on Saturday with high temperatures in the low to
mid 60s for the mountains (summits will be in the low to mid
50s) and low to mid 70s for the broader valleys. Despite this
cooler temperatures, sunny skies are expected under light NW
winds less than 10 mph.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 521 AM EDT Friday...Flow aloft begins to back to the west
and southwest Saturday night into Sunday as a shortwave trough
moves down from Canada. Dynamic support will be increasing
through the period as a result. This will lead to increasing
chances for rain showers Saturday night with precipitation
becoming widespread across the area on Sunday. All data during
this period has this same idea and WSUP NBM Viewer probabilities
of rainfall amounts greater than a tenth, quarter, and half
inch all higher than this time last night. So have upped
precipitation chances on Sunday into the categorical range for
most of the area. Since system is coming down from Canada and
precipitable water values are essentially normal values not
expecting heavy rain at this time. Rainfall amounts at this time
look to be in the third to three quarters inch range. With all
the clouds and precipitation on Sunday high temperatures will
continue to be below normal with readings in the mid 60s to
lower 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 521 AM EDT Friday...Shortwave trough moves across the
area Sunday night and then exits to the east on Monday. The
precipitation will be slow to clear as a result and below normal
temperatures are expected once again with highs on Monday in
the upper 60s to mid 70s. Drier weather is expected on Tuesday
as weak high pressure builds into the region. A front will try
to move into the region on Wednesday thus looking at a chance
for some showers. Flow aloft becomes more southwest on Thursday
and Friday and cannot rule out the possibility of some showers,
but areal coverage looks to be limited. Will keep precipitation
chance mainly in the slight chance category for now. There will
be a gradual warming trend beginning on Tuesday and continuing
throughout the week with highs returning to seasonal normals by
Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Through 12Z Saturday...Widespread IFR/MVFR across the airspace
this morning. Scattered showers have developed over northern New
York and Vermont and will continue throughout the morning hours
as a cold front crosses the region. Lingering low level
moisture will remain with IFR/MVFR ceilings through the morning
hours. Towards 18z, drier air will begin working into the
airspace which should lift any IFR/MVFR to VFR. VFR conditions
should then remain through the rest of the TAF period. Light and
variable winds across VT will begin to increase out of the NW
this morning behind departing surface front. Today, winds will
be around 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. After 00z, wind
gusts should taper off with light NW winds overnight.

Outlook...

Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Sunday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Likely SHRA, Slight
chance TSRA.
Sunday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Monday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Slight chance SHRA.
Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LaRocca
NEAR TERM...LaRocca/Neiles
SHORT TERM...Evenson
LONG TERM...Evenson
AVIATION...LaRocca


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