Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000
FXUS61 KBTV 181139
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Burlington VT
639 AM EST Mon Feb 18 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
Light snow will overspread the North Country through the morning
hours today and continue through at least midday before tapering off
during the afternoon. Snow accumulations will range from around an
inch near the Canadian border to around three inches across southern
Vermont. High pressure builds into the region tonight for colder and
drier weather with temperatures dropping into the single digits
above and below zero. Sunny and dry weather is expected on Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 635 AM EST Monday...Light snow is spreading over the
forecast area this morning on the nose of an upper jet ahead of
the approaching shortwave. The steadiest snow is a bit further
north than anticipated, from the northern Greens westward into
the northern Adirondacks, with south central Vermont under the
influence of a dry slot, seen on satellite water vapor.
Meanwhile, south central Vermont is seeing spottier activity
owing to a dry slot, seen on satellite water vapor. The steadier
snow is pretty light, as evidenced by regional webcams and
surface observations. It will become more widespread through the
morning hours and will also gradually shift toward the southeast
as the shortwave pushes into New England. Have made some
adjustments to PoPs and snow amounts to match the latest radar
trends, but overall forecast is in good shape.

Previous discussion...High pressure is shifting eastward away
from the region this morning as weak low pressure is developing off
the Delmarva coast. This low will move east very near the 40N/70W
benchmark through about daybreak and then out to sea as a quick
moving upper shortwave scoots across the Great Lakes and through
northern New England. Snow currently stretching through the eastern
Great Lakes into southern New England has been slow to make much of
a northward push as anticipated, due to the dry air associated with
the aforementioned high. However, we are now seeing reports of snow
across our southern areas, and this will continue to spread north
and east through the morning hours. The best dynamics and moisture
will remain to our south, with only modest lift associated with the
weakening 850mb low moving across the forecast area. Therefore still
anticipate just light snow, steadiest during the mid to late morning
hours. The snow will then quickly come to an end this afternoon,
once the mid/upper shortwave exits to our east and drier air begins
to work back into the area. Snowfall amounts will be 1 to 3 inches,
with the highest totals across the southern Greens. Highs will be in
the upper teens to upper 20s. High pressure becomes reestablished
tonight, and any lingering snow shower activity over the northern
mountains will end overnight. A cold night is expected with lows
-10F to +5F.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 248 AM EST Monday...High pressure will continue to build over
the North Country on Tuesday, leading to a cool day under partly to
mostly sunny skies. Highs will only be in the mid teens to lower
20s, and a little bit of a west-northwest breeze will make it feel
even a little chillier. Tuesday night will be cold as well with the
high cresting right overhead; lows in the single digits above and
below zero are expected. The high will move east on Wednesday,
making way for low pressure approaching from the Midwest states.
South to southwest flow between these two systems will result in
highs in the mid and upper 20s, along with increasing clouds.
Daylight hours will remain dry with any precipitation holding off
until mid to late evening.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 248 AM EST Monday...Little overall change in GFS/ECMWF
with the 00Z NWP guidance suite. Still anticipating a quick
moving low pressure system translating from the srn Great Lakes
at 00Z Thursday to the Ottawa Valley by 12Z Thursday, and
eventually redeveloping east of Cape Cod by early Thursday
afternoon. The late ewd development of the secondary low implies
that overall QPF will be limited across the North Country,
generally averaging 0.20-0.30" of liquid equivalent.
Additionally, appears 875-775mb above freezing layer will work
across nrn NY into VT Thursday morning, as flow fields in this
layer remain swly at 40- 50kts. This will result in stratiform
snow changing to sleet, with some pockets of freezing rain also
possible Thursday AM. Lastly, mid- level dry slot remains quite
pronounced, and will bring a rather rapid end to any steady
precipitation by mid-morning Thursday. In terms of sensible
weather, anticipate a period of warm advection snowfall
developing 04-06Z Thursday from SW-NE, and then mixing with or
changing over to sleet and localized ZR toward 10-12Z.
Precipitation is generally ending by 15Z or so, with 0.20-0.30"
total QPF and snow/sleet totals of 2-4" in most locations, with
localized 5" totals possible in eastern VT. Main impact would be
areas of slow travel for the Thursday AM commute, as any spotty
ZR is not expected to be sufficient to cause an issue for
trees/powerlines. Temperatures Wednesday night start out in the
teens to lower 20s, but will generally be rising to the upper
20s to lower 30s toward daybreak from the Champlain Valley wwd.
Highs on Thursday should be above freezing areawide, resulting
in improving road conditions as the day progresses. Highs
Thursday generally 38- 42F. Other than a few lingering -SW
Thursday night across n- central/nern VT, should see a return to
high pressure and tranquil weather conditions Friday through
early Saturday night. Highs Friday and Saturday are generally
expected in the mid 30s with at least partly sunny conditions.
Next potential low pressure system arrives late Saturday night
into Sunday. Early indications are that this system may have
better moisture availability, but a track to our west will bring
a wintry mix to possible rain during the day Sunday with breezy
S-SW winds. Indicated high temps in the upr 30s for Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Through 12Z Tuesday...Low pressure across north-central PA and
an associated warm front will spread light snow across the North
Country through 18Z today, with prevailing MVFR conditions, and
intervals of IFR in periods of 1-2SM -SN thru 18Z. The greatest
frequency of IFR vsby conditions are expected at SLK/MPV/RUT
between 12-17Z. Minor impact to aviation ground ops expected
this morning through early afternoon. Winds will generally be
north at 5-10 kts, except locally NE at KMSS and KSLK at 8-12
kts. Winds tonight will trend N-NW around 5kts.

Outlook...

Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR and IFR possible.
Definite SN.
Thursday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance RA, Likely
FZRA, Slight chance SHRA, Slight chance SHSN.
Thursday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight
chance SHSN.
Friday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Hastings
NEAR TERM...Hastings
SHORT TERM...Hastings
LONG TERM...Banacos
AVIATION...Banacos



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