Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Billings, MT

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FXUS65 KBYZ 300825
AFDBYZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Billings MT
225 AM MDT Fri Jul 30 2021

.DISCUSSION...
Today through Saturday...

Disturbance drops south into the northern plains and pushes
monsoonal moisture south and west of the area for the next few
days. This leaves dry easterly low level flow over the area as low
level plains moisture is also suppressed to the south. So, with
moisture diminishing looking at dry and sunny conditions today
with a few more clouds on Saturday. Temperatures will be in the 85
to 95 degree range each day. Overall pretty typical mid summer
weather for the area.

Air Quality...The low level flow from the northeast today will
advect in smoke from a new area, south central Canada. Smoke from
western wildfires will get blocked for today as ridge to the west
shunts it northward, but it will push over the ridge and back into
the area from the north by Saturday. That said, concentrations
should improve some compared to the past several days. Chambers

Sunday through Thursday...

An upper ridge axis will be oriented from MT to CO on Sunday, with
dry conditions over most of the forecast area. Scattered showers
and thunderstorms are expected over the mountains and adjacent
foothills.

Monday into Wednesday, the upper ridge will slide eastward, and
an upper shortwave trough will slowly move eastward over the
Northern Rockies which will facilitate the area of scattered
showers and thunderstorms to expand eastward to more of the
forecast area, including Billings. Precipitable water values look
to increase to over one inch, indicating that showers/storms could
produce localized heavy rain. Wind shear is looking weak, so not
expecting severe thunderstorms...but storms could produce strong,
gusty winds and heavy rainfall.

Late next week, the Northern Rockies will be under the periphery
of the upper ridge, with isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms expected in the afternoon and early
evening...greatest chance over the mountains and adjacent
foothills. Precipitable water values are progged to decrease to
less than one inch during this time, so showers/storms won`t be
capable of dropping as much rainfall as with the trough early in
the week...but some localized light rainfall would be possible
especially in the mountains and adjacent foothills.

High temperatures will generally be in the 90s Sunday, then 80s
and 90s Monday through Thursday. Low temperatures will generally
be in the 50s and 60s Sunday night through Wednesday night. RMS

&&

.AVIATION...

Showers and thunderstorms will exit southeast MT by 15z this
morning. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are expected over the
mountains and adjacent foothills this afternoon into early
evening and could cause areas of obscuration. VFR will prevail,
though wildfire smoke will still be over the area with reduced
slant range visibility, and surface visibility can lower to MVFR
in some locations. RMS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    Tdy Sat     Sun     Mon     Tue     Wed     Thu
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 094 067/094 066/095 066/094 066/091 061/093 061/091
    1/H 11/H    01/B    13/W    44/W    22/W    22/T
LVM 091 058/092 057/092 059/088 056/084 052/090 052/087
    2/W 11/H    12/T    36/T    64/T    22/T    22/T
HDN 096 064/095 061/098 063/096 063/093 058/093 057/092
    0/H 11/H    00/B    12/W    34/W    22/W    22/W
MLS 093 066/092 063/094 064/096 067/092 064/093 062/093
    0/H 10/H    00/U    01/B    12/W    32/W    22/W
4BQ 091 064/091 062/092 064/094 064/088 063/091 061/092
    1/H 00/H    00/U    01/B    13/W    32/W    22/W
BHK 090 061/090 057/091 059/093 061/091 061/093 060/092
    1/H 00/H    00/U    01/B    12/W    32/W    22/T
SHR 090 058/089 056/092 059/093 059/088 055/090 054/088
    2/T 22/T    11/U    13/T    35/T    32/T    22/T

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
WY...None.

&&

$$
weather.gov/billings


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