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000
FXUS61 KCTP 301424
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
1024 AM EDT Fri Jul 30 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
A refreshing pattern change will bring cooler than average
temperatures and pleasant/less humid conditions to close-out
July. Scattered thunderstorms are forecast for the first day of
August. For next week, Monday looks dry with an increasing
chance for diurnal showers and storms Tuesday through Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Really nice drying occurring from north to south this morning
with mid 50s dewpoints now over my northwest mountains.
Dewpoints in the lower to middle 60s across central and
southeast PA will similarly drop this afternoon through the 50s
bringing a refreshing end to the month. The afternoon will
feature a refreshing NW breeze along with a mix of sun and
clouds (horiz convective rolls) and highs ranging through the
70s to near 80 southeast.

The dry/low PW airmass will set the stage for a rather cool and
crisp night with fcst MinTs ~10F below climo and not too far
from daily record lows. Lows will range from the mid 40s over
the NW Alleghenies to the mid 50s across the southeast valleys
(good sleeping weather!). See the climate section for more info
on record low temps.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Look forward to a mostly sunny and beautiful start to the
weekend and last day of July 2021.

A mid/upper trough and sfc cold front are fcst to move through
the area on Sunday. NBM PPIs signal the highest probs for rain
over the NW mtns and southeast zones. Max/min temps Sunday will
trend warmer on the margin or slightly closer to average for
early August.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Much of Monday should remain dry, outside of a few lingering
early day showers across the northern tier. Another upper low
looks to dig into the western Great Lakes/Midwest into Tuesday,
which will once again lead to increasing moisture and subsequent
shower/storm chances into midweek. Below normal temperatures
look to remain the rule, with highs generally in the low 70s
north to low 80s south and lows spanning the 50s with low 60s in
the lower Susquehanna Valley.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Low end MVFR or IFR cigs will continue into the mid morning Fri
for BFD and JST, where NW upslope flow is ongoing. Elsewhere,
conditions will generally remain VFR except for some local
restrictions in patchy FG/BR.

Improving conditions expected during the daylight hours Fri, as
drier air works into the area. Expect NW flow with gusts to 25
kts Fri afternoon.

Outlook...

Sat...No sig wx expected.

Sun...Chance of a shower or thunderstorm.

Mon... Mostly VFR.

Tue...A chance of showers.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Through July 29th, the monthly precipitation at Harrisburg is
8.00 inches which currently ranks 2021 as the 9th wettest July
on record.

Daily record low temperatures for 7/31:

MDT 53 in 1895
IPT 47 in 1936
AOO 47 in 1966
BFD 41 in 1966
STC 46 in 1895

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DeVoir/Steinbugl
NEAR TERM...DeVoir/Steinbugl
SHORT TERM...Steinbugl
LONG TERM...DeVoir/RXR
AVIATION...Martin/Colbert
CLIMATE...