Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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380
FXUS61 KCTP 191849
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
249 PM EDT Sat Oct 19 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure moves east of the region tonight. Increasing
moisture and clouds associated with remnants of Tropical Storm
Nestor will clip southern parts of the region on Sunday as the
storm center passes well to our south. The best chance for a
more widespread rain looks like it will not be until Monday
night and Tuesday when a cold front will move through.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Early afternoon vis imagery shows high clouds on northern
periphery of Nestor over the southwest half of PA, These will
continue to ride northeast and thicken late this afternoon and
evening. Model guidance similar to recent runs in taking
Nestor`s low center well to our south, tracking close to VA
Beach and offshore. This will brush my south and southeast with
generally light QPF, although NAM continues to depict some
moderate amounts not far away. Far southern York and Lancaster
Counties stand the best chance of seeing more than 0.25" of
rain, otherwise we`re looking at a general one to two tenths
from the SC Mountains to Schuylkill Counties, and then <.10 to
T amounts farther north and west. Mins will be held much warmer
than Sat AM, with u30s in the nrn mtns and m40s in the S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/...
Steadiest rain will fall over the southeast tomorrow morning
into midday before decreasing in the afternoon. The clouds will
keep temps in the u50s southeast, with higher numbers in the
lower 60s over the NW where the clouds will not be too thick.
Increasing sunshine is expected to work across central areas
during the afternoon but the southeast should remain cloudy
all day.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Building high pressure will provide clearing skies Sunday night,
as low pressure off the Mid-Atlantic coast pulls out to sea.

High pressure will remain in control of our weather into Monday
before a strong area of low pressure crosses the upper Great
Lakes and pulls a ribbon of anomalously high PWATs /+1 to +2SD/
across the area. This will result in a period of rain for
central PA, and models seem to have come into better agreement
in having this round of wet weather develop from west to east
Monday night and continue into Tuesday.

Much of the second half of next week will be dominated by high
pressure, before the next weather-maker lifts out of the
Mississippi Valley and brings our next chance for rain later
next Friday or Saturday.

Temperature-wise, next week will begin with above-normal
temperatures before a brief cool down midweek. An upper-level
ridge will reestablish itself over the eastern U.S. late next
week, allowing temperatures to rebound back to above-normal
readings.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Satellite loop clear skies being overtaken by increasing high
clouds from the south and west. VFR and light wind will prevail
the rest of the day and into tonight before lowing cigs and
restrictions arrive Sunday morning with light rain south and
southeast.

.Outlook...

Sun...Light rain/low cigs possible southeast Pa.

Mon...AM valley fog.

Tue...Rain/low cigs possible.

Wed...No sig wx expected.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DeVoir
NEAR TERM...DeVoir
SHORT TERM...DeVoir
LONG TERM...Evanego
AVIATION...DeVoir



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