Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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FXUS61 KCTP 251749
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
149 PM EDT Thu Apr 25 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
Rainy weather is expected in central Pennsylvania through the
end of the week. Periods of heavy rain and a few strong
thunderstorms are possible on Friday. Windy and colder
conditions for the start the weekend, with a chance of showers
returning to the area on Sunday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Radar trends favor areas south of I-80 with periods of light
rain showers through midday. Hires models show rain showers
gradually spreading northward through the afternoon and into
tonight. Adjusted max temps downward across parts of south
central PA due to solid cloud cover and light rain. Mild temps
tonight (low-mid 50s) with periods of light rain showers.
Heaviest rain is projected across the northwest part of the
CWA between 00 and 12Z Friday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/...
The storm will continue to deepen as it moves through western
NY, dragging a cold front through the CWA during the daylight
hours. There are minor timing differences with the front, but
all the near term deterministic models are hinting at some sort
of wave forming on the front down over VA moving up over ERN PA.
It pretty much assures a wet day with a widespread .25" - .75"
of rain across the region.

Highs in the 50s and 60s will still be pretty close to normal.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Sat will bring a new shot of cooler air and breezy conditions
followed by another shortwave/surface low tracking across the
state on Sunday.

The GFS is weaker and further south with its storm, while the
EC and Canadian models take a respectable surface low through
central PA during the day Sunday. Blended MOS POPs favored the
northern half of the region with the best chance for rain, but
confidence isn`t the best. The difference between the EC and the
GFS could mean the difference between a chilly rain and a
milder solution with the possibility of some convection.

After a dry Monday, the active pattern will continue with a new
weak wave for Tuesday. From there, the trailing front could
stall near PA keeping the mention of showers in the forecast
through the end of the week.

Latest guidance shows the cool shot behind the Sunday storm will
be quite chilly. The growing season has started over the SERN
1/2 of the CWA and we could be dealing with some frost issues
Monday morning. Temperatures will moderate slowly for the rest
of the week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Radar shows some returns across the southern airspace this
afternoon, but sfc obs indicate that only very light rain is
reaching the surface. For the most part, VFR will continue
until evening, although JST, AOO and UNV could occasionally dip
to MVFR. A light southeasterly breeze will persist into
tonight.

Lower ceilings, light rain and patchy fog will overspread the
terminal sites this evening into tonight, with conditions
lowering to MVFR/IFR. Low-level wind shear could develop
overnight as well, as southerly flow is expected to increase
just off the surface.

Showers and even a few thunderstorms are expected on Friday, as
a cold front crosses the commonwealth. Conditions will improve
behind the front for Saturday, although a blustery NW wind will
develop.

.Outlook...

Sat...Mainly VFR, with a blustery NW wind.
Sun...Potential showers and restrictions, especially N/W.
Mon...Mainly VFR.
Mon night...Potential showers and restrictions.
Tues...Becoming VFR.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Steinbugl
NEAR TERM...La Corte/Steinbugl
SHORT TERM...La Corte
LONG TERM...La Corte
AVIATION...Steinbugl/Evanego


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