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000
FXUS63 KDLH 270528
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
1228 AM CDT Tue Jul 27 2021

.DISCUSSION...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 426 PM CDT Mon Jul 26 2021

Summary...The main concern this forecast is this evening`s
convection with the Enhanced risk of severe storms we have. After
that, we have warm weather continuing with chance for more showers
and thunderstorms on Wednesday, and again on Friday.

The convection this evening is an unusual Enhanced risk for this
area, which we do not typically see more than a couple of days a
summer around here. There is a low pressure system over central
North Dakota this afternoon, with a warm front draped east into
our area, generally from the Brainerd Lakes region east into
northwest Wisconsin. Along and south of this boundary the airmass
is strongly unstable, with surface based CAPE values already over
2k j/Kg, with models indicating it may get up over 3k j/Kg at some
point this evening. Sounding from this morning show an Elevated
Mixed Layer that should be over our area this evening that is also
showing as a drier area on satellite imagery. This EML will
produce steep lapse rates in the mid levels, even as it also
produces the capping that we are seeing at the lower levels this
afternoon. Model soundings show that we should have a long
hodograph this evening with moderate to strong winds aloft to help
lengthen it, despite the weaker winds in the boundary layer. This
all shows that if we can get convection to fire, severe storms
are likely, with very large hail and strong winds, as already
depicted in the SPC day one severe outlook. We may have a very
weak shortwave moving along the North Dakota/Manitoba line this
afternoon which has been generating an area of accas and -tsra
over northwest Minnesota this afternoon. This is likely based in
the 700-600mb Warm air advection region, and we do not expect this
area to grow significantly or become rooted in the surface based
instability, at least in part due to its position relative to the
surface boundary. However, ahead of the surface low over eastern
North Dakota we have some decent pressure falls over northwest
Minnesota and would expect some new development in this area
sometime in the next few hours. Models have been wildly
inconsistent in depicting this event, with the NAMNest and FV3SAR
showing development over NW MN and eastern ND by 01Z, then
sliding southeast across the forecast area, but the HRRR not
developing anything until after 03Z, and with much less coverage
than either of the other models. Uncertainty in timing and
evolution is still pretty high, even as of late afternoon.
Unfortunately, we are in the wait and see mode, and we will have
to see how things evolve this evening. There may be some lingering
showers into early Tuesday morning, but otherwise expect the bulk
of the convection to be out of the forecast area shortly after
midnight.

Tuesday should be relatively quiet with the boundary having
shifted south of the forecast area and weak ridging over the area.
Highs to get back into the 80s for the day, though slightly
cooler than today.

We have another chance for showers and thunderstorms on
Wednesday, and while we have a small threat for severe weather, am
not as concerned about it as I am for this evening. Should it
shift a little later in the day and allow instability to build
before the convection moves into the area, that would be a
different story. Highs to creep back up into the low 90s for the
Brainerd Lakes region.

After another quiet day on Thursday, another shortwave should
bring another chance for showers and thunderstorms Friday night
and early Saturday, but it is too soon to determine the severe
weather potential with this. This should usher in a bubble of
cooler temperatures aloft with cooler high temperatures through
the weekend, with highs back in the 70s to low 80s for both days.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1224 AM CDT Tue Jul 27 2021

VFR conditions initially for all terminals. As the showers and
thunderstorms exit the region, MVFR ceiling and visibilities will
develop around 09Z mixing out after 14Z leading to VFR conditions
through the remainder of the period.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 955 PM CDT Mon Jul 26 2021

Showers and thunderstorms will affect the nearshore waters
through the night, gradually diminishing toward sunrise. Gusty
winds, heavy rain and frequent lightning will accompany the
storms. Higher waves may also accompany the storms. Quiet weather
Tuesday and Tuesday night as high pressure is nearby. Another
round of showers and storms is forecast for Wednesday. Winds will
be northeast at 5 to 10 knots, with some gusts to 20 knots near
the western arm of the lake, and waves less than 3 feet.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  61  78  60  82 /  90  10  40  60
INL  56  85  62  85 /  20  10  60  70
BRD  63  86  66  92 /  50  10  30  50
HYR  61  84  61  86 /  50  10  30  60
ASX  61  79  59  87 /  70  10  40  60

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
LS...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...LE
AVIATION...KSE
MARINE...GSF