Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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FXUS63 KDLH 131739

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
1239 PM CDT Sun Oct 13 2019

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday)
Issued at 337 AM CDT Sun Oct 13 2019

The vertically stacked low pressure system was centered just north
of Isle Royale this morning and is forecast to move east/northeast
through Ontario today. There were areas of light snow or flurries
over the Northland...and that will continue today as a shortwave
moves through the area on the backside of the upper low. Coverage
is expected to increase this afternoon as the CAMs show scattered
snow showers becoming more numerous. There will also be some lake
enhancement across the Bayfield Peninsula today into tonight with
some possible downwind of the larger inland lakes like Red Lake,
Lake of the Woods, Leech Lake, and Mille Lacs Lake. The CAMs do
pick up on the lake effect over the Bayfield Peninsula and we have
increased both POPs and snowfall amounts there. Temperatures were
lowered a bit today but are expected to be a little warmer than
yesterday. The snow showers may mix with rain in spots but given
the convective nature that is expected this afternoon, many areas
will see just snow showers. Accumulation today into this evening
will be less than an inch for most areas but with 1 to possibly 3
inches over the higher terrain of the Bayfield Peninsula with the
majority of the accumulation over grassy and elevated surfaces.

Snow showers will end overnight for most areas but we expect
mostly cloudy skies for most areas. Light snow showers will remain
possible along portions of the South Shore. Lows will be from 25
to 30 but be a little warmer close to Lake Superior along the
South Shore.

Weak shortwave ridging will move into the Northland late Monday
into Monday night. Most areas will be dry on Monday, although some
flurries or some spotty light rain could occur as skies will
remain mostly cloudy. Highs will be from 38 to 43, still 10 to 15
degrees below normal.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 337 AM CDT Sun Oct 13 2019

The extended forecast period features a few rounds of precipitation
over the region, mainly in the form of rain showers, along with a
trend toward warmer temperatures closer to seasonal averages. No
significant weather systems are expected through Sunday.

Dry conditions are expected Monday evening as a ridge of high
pressure briefly builds before another system makes its way into the
region late Monday night into Tuesday. A mid-level shortwave impulse
will dive southeastward from Montana and amplify as it approaches,
leading to increasing large-scale forcing per the Thaler QG omega
progs. A decent plume of moisture will lift northward, which will
support precipitation. The timing of the system seems to support
more snow initially Tuesday morning, transitioning to more rain in
the afternoon. Snow accumulations look to be light, with no more
than an inch of accumulation possible Tuesday morning. We did
increase the QPF as the consensus blends seem to be under-doing the
QPF, especially given the amplifying wave and strengthening lift.
This wave will quickly move out Tuesday night, but there should be a
lingering rain/snow mix into Wednesday morning. High temperatures
Tuesday and Wednesday will warm up into the lower to middle 40s,
which is well below normal for this time of the year.

Drier conditions are expected for Wednesday afternoon through most
of Friday as a more pronounced high pressure system strengthens
Thursday. Southerly return flow will help temperatures warm into the
upper 40s and lower 50s Thursday and the lower to middle 50s Friday,
which is closer to seasonal. The next chances of precipitation come
on Friday night and Saturday morning. The deterministic models, like
the GFS and ECMWF, are showing better agreement than they did 24
hours ago, with mainly our eastern portions being impacted.
Precipitation type should be all rain as the thermal profiles are
just too warm to support any snow. Another system could move into
the Northland for Sunday, but there is quite a bit more uncertainty
with this particular system due to timing differences among the
guidance. For now, will lean on the consensus blends, with chance
PoPs across the region. Precipitation types look to be all rain.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1235 PM CDT Sun Oct 13 2019

Northwesterly flow behind a departing slow moving low pressure
system will cause snow/rain shower activity today and the
potential for IFR ceilings/vsbys, but the predominant flight
category will be MVFR. Eventually, ceilings may improve to high
end MVFR, but they will collapse again tonight for low end MVFR
or IFR conditions. Winds will slowly decrease through the period
as well though may be gusty at times this afternoon.


Issued at 1024 AM CDT Sun Oct 13 2019

A slow moving low pressure system will move eastward with winds
and waves slowly decreasing today and Monday. The next system to
keep an eye on arrives in Wisconsin on Tuesday and will likely
boost winds and waves again.


DLH  38  30  41  32 /  60  20   0  10
INL  39  30  40  33 /  60  30  10  30
BRD  37  30  42  34 /  50  10   0  20
HYR  37  28  41  32 /  60  20   0  20
ASX  40  31  45  33 /  60  40  10  10




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