


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN
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420 FXUS63 KDLH 150548 AFDDLH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Duluth MN 1248 AM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Rain chances increase tonight across northern areas. There is a 15 percent chance of a few storms tonight. A storm or two may be strong. - Rain spreads southward across the entire Northland tomorrow. Moderate to heavy rain is possible along with some strong to severe storms Tuesday afternoon and evening. - Turning cooler Wednesday with rain chances lingering. - Drier to end the week before rain chances and warmer temperatures return for the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 353 PM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025 A stationary boundary was draped across northern Wisconsin into central Minnesota and North Dakota this afternoon. A band of showers was located across northern Minnesota and was slowly moving eastward. Zonal flow aloft will bring a parade of shortwaves across the Northern Tier through Wednesday. This, coupled with a stationary boundary at the surface that will not move much during this time, will lead to multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms tonight into Wednesday. The first round will likely develop tonight on the nose of a low level jet across North Dakota and then push eastward during the early morning hours. These storms are expected to be elevated and may pose a low risk for some large hail across northeastern Minnesota tonight. As the stationary boundary remains in the area for Tuesday, additional showers and storms are expected to develop. Models build around 1500-2000 J/kg of CAPE during the afternoon hours with effective shear around 20 knots. Storm mode will likely be linear along the front with large hail and damaging winds at the primary threat. There will also be a localized tornado threat along the front where some low level turning is expected. SPC has upgraded northwest Wisconsin and the I-35 corridor to a slight risk for these threats. Additional showers and storms will linger for Tuesday night into Wednesday, but are not expected to be severe as the front shifts south of the region and cooler air fills in behind. Heavy rainfall from high PWATs over 1.5" and training storms will lead to some flooding concerns. The WPC has the Borderlands outlined in a marginal risk for excessive rainfall tonight with a slight over much of the region for tomorrow. This threat will be highest wherever the front sets up. Rainfall may linger into Wednesday with models disagreeing on how long it lingers with some continuing chances into Wednesday night. Again, this will be dependent on that stationary boundary dropping south of the region on Wednesday. After highs in the 70s and 80s Tuesday, 60s will be prevalent for Wednesday with 50s downwind of Lake Superior thanks to easterly winds. Dry conditions will then prevail for Thursday into Friday with highs in the 70s as high pressure moves through. Rain chances then return for the weekend as the upper flow turns zonal again and the shortwave train starts back up. Temperatures also warm back into the upper 70s and lower 80s, so some strong to severe storms will not be out of the question. Otherwise, model disagreement precludes and good timing estimates for weekend rainfall at this time. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1248 AM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025 An active period is expected as a stalling warm front develops showers and thunderstorms early this morning. While conditions will be VFR for much of this morning, areas of MVFR to IFR conditions will be possible as showers and thunderstorms move through. Hail is a potential concern early this morning, primarily for KINL. The stalling warm front this morning will begin to slowly move eastward as the cold front approaches on Tuesday afternoon. Multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms are anticipated to move through all terminals on Tuesday, leading to periods of reduced cigs and visibility. Thunderstorms may become strong to severe on Tuesday afternoon, especially over KDLH and KHYR. && .MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/... Issued at 353 PM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025 Winds will become easterly tonight and Tuesday around 10 knots or less before starting to increase Tuesday night to 10 to 20 knots with gusts to 25 knots, highest in the western arm and the Apostle Islands. These winds will also generate waves in these areas of 3 to 5 feet. Conditions hazardous to small craft will be likely during this time. Winds then diminish to 5 to 15 knots Wednesday night. Multiple rounds of thunderstorms will be possible tonight into Wednesday. A few stronger storms will be possible Tuesday afternoon and evening across western Lake Superior. Large hail and wind gusts to 50 knots will be possible in stronger storms along with cloud to water lightning and heavy rainfall. For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt. && .DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...None. WI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...BJH AVIATION...Unruh MARINE...BJH