Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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FXUS63 KDLH 240854
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
354 AM CDT Wed Apr 24 2019

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 354 AM CDT Wed Apr 24 2019

A warm front was moving through the western half of the forecast
area at 08Z/3am. Scattered showers were dotting the landscape ahead
of and along the front. A fairly dry atmosphere was in place and was
limiting the overall coverage of rain. These showers will continue
to percolate across the area through the morning, with the greatest
concentration along and north of U.S. Highway 2, with e showers
eventually reaching into northwest Wisconsin. A cold front follows
this afternoon with another round of scattered showers. A few
isolated thunderstorms are possible as MUCAPE values reach up to 500
J/kg.

The front moves into northwest Wisconsin this evening, and departs
overnight. Some weak instability is accompanying the front in the
evening with about 200 J/kg of MUCAPE. This instability quickly
erodes with sunset. A gradual clearing trend is expected overnight
as surface ridging works across the region. Cold air advection is on
tap tonight and will lead to comfortable min temps.

The surface ridging persists through Thursday morning. In the
afternoon, a vigorous upper short wave pushes toward the
international border by 00Z/7pm. A cold front will also move through
northeast Minnesota in the afternoon. However, moisture is sparse as
mean column RH is about 50 percent. Not expecting any rain to
accompany this front. Winds will be on the increase in the afternoon
behind the front and become gusty. Max temps will be cooler with the
frontal passage.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 354 AM CDT Wed Apr 24 2019

A few opportunities for precipitation will be possible this weekend
and into next week, with temperatures generally below average for
this time of the year.

Dry and quiet conditions will develop Thursday night through Friday
night as a surface high pressure ridge axis builds across the
region. We could approach near-critical fire weather conditions
Friday as relative humidities fall to between 20 to 30 percent, and
northwest winds could gust to between 15 to 25 mph. Otherwise,
mostly sunny skies with highs in the lower to middle 50s.

Attention then turns to a potent system that appears to just graze
the southern tier of counties in our forecast area Saturday. A
compact mid-level shortwave trough, with an associated surface low
that develops via lee cyclogenesis over eastern Wyoming, will
translate through the Corn Belt states. An inverted surface trough
and isentropic ascent should provide ample forcing to support
precipitation across our southern tier of counties. However, there
is quite a bit of uncertainty with this system as the suite of model
guidance shows some timing and spatial differences. The 24.00z GFS
has shifted the precipitation shield ever so slightly north compared
to the 23.12z and 23.18z runs. Moreover, the 24.00z NAM and CMC
models have precipitation missing our region entirely. At this time,
this system appears to have minimal impacts in our region, if it
does materialize, with the potential for mostly rain, possibly snow
mixing in early Saturday morning. Any snow accumulations at this
time appear to be light in nature. If this system is progged to
shift farther north in subsequent model runs, heavier precipitation
will be possible.

Sunday appears to be dry, with highs in the upper 40s to lower 50s.
Then, the models greatly diverge for Monday through Wednesday, with
the potential for a low-amplitude shortwave trough to translate
across the international border and bring chances of precipitation.
Both the GFS and GEM models show a large area of precip moving
through the region, while the ECMWF is nearly completely dry. For
now, leaned towards the consensus blend solution, which leans more
towards the GFS and GEM solutions. High temperatures for the first
half of next week will range from the middle 40s to the lower 50s in
most locations.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 1229 AM CDT Wed Apr 24 2019

VFR conditions will persist through the TAF period at all sites
across northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin. A weak warm
front moving east across northern Minnesota may bring a few light
rain showers into Wednesday morning. Winds out of the south at 5 to
10 knots overnight, increasing and becoming more southwesterly at 10
to 15 knots ahead of a cold front on Wednesday afternoon, gusting to
near 25 knots at DLH and HYR through Wednesday afternoon. Ahead of
the cold front early Wednesday morning there could be a period of
low level wind shear due to stronger southwest winds to 40-45 knots
aloft in northeast Minnesota around 09-12Z. Along and ahead of
the front there is a chance for scattered showers and a few
thunderstorms late Wed morning through the afternoon in northern
MN, tracking into northwest Wisconsin in the evening. Winds
diminish and become northwesterly Wednesday evening behind the
front as skies clear out.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 354 AM CDT Wed Apr 24 2019

Forecast appears to be on track, with a warm front moving through
the region early this morning, producing some drizzle or light rain
showers. Winds will be light and variable this morning before
becoming more southerly as the warm front passes through. Winds
could be a bit breezy along the South Shore, with sustained winds in
the 10 to 15 knot range. A cold front will then pass through the
region this evening, turning the winds from the northwest. Another
round of rain showers and perhaps a thunderstorm will be possible
this evening. Dry conditions return for Thursday, with west to
southwest winds 10 to 15 knots under mostly sunny skies. Northwest
winds Thursday night will build, possibly leading to hazardous
conditions for small craft into Friday, particularly along the North
Shore.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 354 AM CDT Wed Apr 24 2019

Widespread minor flooding across portions of Ashland and Iron
counties, including the Bad River, will continue this morning.
Please refer to the latest flood products for more detailed
information.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  67  43  64  36 /  30  50   0   0
INL  69  39  63  33 /  20   0   0  10
BRD  72  43  65  36 /  20  10   0   0
HYR  68  43  66  36 /  10  40   0   0
ASX  67  43  66  37 /  10  50   0   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
LS...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GSF
LONG TERM...JTS
AVIATION...JJM/JTS
HYDROLOGY...JTS
MARINE...JTS


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