Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Detroit/Pontiac, MI

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FXUS63 KDTX 162301
AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
701 PM EDT Sun Jun 16 2019


.AVIATION...

IFR conditions will persist KPTK south into the evening with brief
periods of LIFR in -dz/br. Drier low level air will very slowly work
south through the area overnight into Monday with cigs edging up to
MVFR and lower VFR with time. This will occur faster at KMBS/KFNT
where MVFR/lower VFR should be the rule for the forecast. NE winds
will continue around 5 kts (strong KMBS with flow off bay during
the evening).

For DTW...IFR to occasional LIFR cigs in -dz/br will hold into the
evening, but gradually lift to MVFR overnight and lower VFR Monday.
However, cigs above 5kft will wait until Monday evening. Winds will
remain NE generally 5 knots (or less overnight).

.DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* High for ceilings aob 5kft through Monday morning, medium into
  Monday afternoon.

* Very low for ceilings aob 200 feet and visibility of 1/2 mile or
  less early this evening.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
Issued at 325 PM EDT Sun Jun 16 2019

DISCUSSION...

Band of light rain associated with the back edge of the passing MCV
will exit the CWA this evening giving way to a mid-level shortwave
ridge and expanding high pressure at the surface. Associated
northeast flow will help maintain an inversion and ensure clouds and
temperatures in the 50s stick around through tonight. Another well-
defined MCV is spinning over central Oklahoma at press time and is
contributing to convective development over the southern Plains.
Convective debris will funnel over the area during the day Monday
muting any recovery possible by eventual burnoff of the resident
stratus deck. Current forecast in the low 70s/upper 60s in the Thumb
is in line with the 12z guidance and appears reasonable. Virtually
no change heading into Tuesday as troughing remains upstream and the
area remains favorably located to be at least partially overspread
by convective debris once again. Pervasive low chance of pops at the
MI/OH border near the ever-present baroclinic zone but otherwise
precipitation-free.

Not much has changed from yesterday in the models in regards to the
system that will move into SE MI Wednesday evening. Models are still
in agreement that the peak rainfall band in this system will drop
between 1 to 2 inches of rain. However the location of that band as
well as the low center is uncertain. The Canadian model is taking a
more northerly track across the I-69 and Thumb region, the ECMWF is
taking a central track across the Metro Detroit area, and the GFS is
taking a southerly track across IN/OH which is keeping the highest
precip south of the CWA. There`s still the chance of scattered light
showers into early Friday.

The warm front from a surface low developing in the central plains
will move into SE MI Saturday morning bringing showers and storms
along with summer heat. This low will approach/cross the central
Great Lakes over the course of the weekend keeping precip in the
forecast.

MARINE...

Light east to northeast flow through the remainder of today on the
north side of a east to west oriented boundary across Lower Michigan
and northern IN. Low pressure riding this front along with upper
level disturbances will bring scattered showers across the local
marine waters through this afternoon. Shower coverage will decrease
into the late evening hours. Winds remain light and out of the
northeast into tomorrow as favorable marine conditions begin to take
over to start the work week. High pressure builds into the region
Monday with some linger cloud cover, which will eventually make way
for a cloud clearing trend for Tuesday as light winds and low waves
persist into mid-week.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...Lakeshore Flood Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for MIZ048.

Lake Huron...NONE.
Lake St Clair...NONE.
Michigan waters of Lake Erie...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION.....DG
DISCUSSION...JVC/KDK
MARINE.......AA


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at www.weather.gov/detroit.



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