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000
FXUS63 KEAX 230945
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
345 AM CST Sat Feb 23 2019

.Discussion...
Issued at 345 AM CST SAT FEB 23 2019

A very busy next 24 hours as four hazards are currently in effect
for this period. The first of these of these hazards is ongoing this
morning in the form of a dense fog advisory. This advisory is
covering areas south of the Missouri River as warm air is advecting
into the area over a snowpack. Visibilities will occasionally
improve in areas of showers however visibilities will mainly be
reduced to a quarter mile or less in these locations. Further north,
fog will be lighter where areas of showers and isolated thunderstorms
are more likely to persist. There may be a break in shower this
morning however drizzle will persist before a second round of
showers and some scattered thunderstorms moves into the area late
this morning into the afternoon.

The rest of our hazards will occur this evening through tonight as
a strong surface low moves through northwest Missouri into central
Iowa. As it does it will drag a strong cold front through the area.
Very strong CAA behind the front will quickly usher in cooler
temperatures and cause precipitation to transition to sleet and over
to snow. Accumulations of 1 to 4 inches will be possible across far
northwestern Missouri where a Winter Weather Advisory is in place.
In addition to the snow, there will also, be very strong northwest
winds sustained between 25 to 35 mph with gusts to 45 mph. The
strong winds coupled with the snow will cause issues with visibility
due to blowing snow and as such a blizzard warning has be issued for
Atchison County in Missouri. Areas in the surrounding advisory may
need to be upgraded to a blizzard warning as they will experience
the strong winds as well however, at this time accumulations are
expected to be too minimal to cause visibility issues. Although only
few will see accumulating snow, the entire CWA will experience the
aforementioned strong winds and as such a Wind Advisory has been
issued for the entire CWA. Snow will exit the area overnight tonight
with winds subsiding below advisory criteria by sunrise on Sunday.

Sunday through Tuesday will look to be much more tranquil but still
cool with below normal temperatures. Continued CAA on the back side
of the storm system on Sunday will keep highs in the upper 20s to
the lower 40s south. High pressure will move into the area on Monday
providing copious sunshine but weak mixing. Consequently,
temperatures will remain cool with highs in the upper 20s north to
the upper 40s south. Tuesday there will be the slight chance for a
passing shot of light snow across northern Missouri with highs again
in the upper 20s north to upper 40s south.

Wednesday and Thursday there will be chances for light snow as
models advertise quick moving disturbance moving through the region
on zonal flow aloft. The main limiting factor will be the lack of
moisture for these disturbances to work with. Friday, model
solutions are much different with the EC showing another weak
shortwave moving through the region on continued quasi-zonal flow
aloft while the GFS shows a much strong upper level trough moving
through the central Plains. As such, forecast confidence is low
beyond Thursday.


&&

.Aviation...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday Night)
Issued at 1135 PM CST FRI FEB 22 2019

LIFR/IFR conditions, with possible VLIFR, will prevail through
12Z before improving a bit. Rain is currently working through the
terminals with a few lightning strikes noted earlier across
eastern Kansas. With limited instability overnight, thunderstorm
is highly unlikely at the terminals, but cannot be completely
rules out. Instability will increase after 12Z, but is still
expected to remain pretty isolated. A cold front will move through
tomorrow around 00Z with northwesterly winds strengthening behind
the front. Sustained winds of 25 kts possible...gusting 35-40kts
by the end of the prevailing period. Rain showers will transition
to a wintry mix or all snow behind the front.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CST this morning for KSZ057-060-
     105.

     Wind Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 AM CST Sunday for
     KSZ025-057-060-102>105.

     Winter Weather Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 3 AM CST
     Sunday for KSZ025-102.

MO...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CST this morning for MOZ037>040-
     043>046-053-054.

     Wind Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 AM CST Sunday for
     MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-043>046-053-054.

     Winter Weather Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 3 AM CST
     Sunday for MOZ002>005-011-012.

     Blizzard Warning from 4 PM this afternoon to 3 AM CST Sunday for
     MOZ001.

&&

$$

Discussion...73
Aviation...Pietrycha