


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO
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533 FXUS63 KEAX 152342 AFDEAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 642 PM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025 ...Updated 00z Aviation... .KEY MESSAGES... - Multiple chances for strong to severe storms Wednesday AM and PM. Strong to damaging winds and heavy rainfall will be the main threats. - Hotter, more humid conditions anticipated Wednesday, this weekend, and into early next week. Heat indices potentially ranging from 100- 107 F. - Unsettled pattern with daily chances for storms this weekend into early next week. No severe weather anticipated at this time. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 209 PM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025 A weak H500 shortwave moving through southeastern MO has produced just enough lift in combination with differential daytime heating to develop a few isolated to scattered thunderstorms this afternoon in southern MO. There is a chance a few pop-up storms will develop in the southern portions of our area. The most favorable area, with the least amount of convective inhibition, appears to be south of I-70. Any storms that develop are anticipated to mostly be diurnally driven so they will gradually dissipate with the loss of daytime heating. No severe is expected, but a few isolated wind gusts and brief downpours are possible. Later tonight into early Wednesday, a surface cyclone and accompanying cold front over the South Dakota/Nebraska border will initiate a line of storms that track to the southeast into northwest MO. As these storms move into our area, they are expected to be weakening with diurnal cooling causing storms to become elevated. However, there is a slim chance for a few strong to severe wind gusts with inverted-v soundings, dry air aloft, and DCAPE values exceeding 1,000 J/kg as the line makes its initial approach. PWATs ranging from 1.5-1.8 inches suggest the potential for some efficient rain-producing storms. If storms begin to train, there could be some isolated flooding concerns. MBE velocity vectors ranging from 15-20 kts suggest that storms will be on the more progressive side. As we progress towards max cooling, the severe threat will continue to dwindle. The severe threat is anticipated to drop off Wednesday night, however storms may linger with a 30-40 knot H850 low-level jet intensifying over areas near northeastern Kansas, and northwestern Missouri. The H850 low-level jet could aid in increasing moisture transport and instability to keep the environment somewhat favorable for storms after midnight despite diurnal cooling. SPC has issued a marginal risk (1/5) for severe weather for the northwestern corner of our CWA (areas near Maryville and to the northwest). Going into Wednesday afternoon, persistent southerly winds due to a weak surface high over the Gulf will increase theta-e advection allowing hot and humid conditions. Heat indices will likely range in upper 90s to lower 100s across the area. There is a chance for a few areas to see heat indices as high as 105 degrees. However, this is highly dependent on how much clearing takes place after convection as additional cloud coverage could hinder solar heating. Areas along and south of I-70 have the best chances of seeing triple digit heat indices as they will likely be farther away from the morning convection. This is also dependent on how far south the surface cyclone and associated cold front move through the area before stalling out with the weak flow. For now, heat headlines seem less likely as heat advisory criteria will not be widespread. As the H925 front pushes through the area late Wednesday afternoon into the night, there will be another round of thunderstorms. Widespread CAPE values exceeding 2,000 J/kg suggest the potential for a few strong updrafts. However, limited shear point to brief, short-lived storms with limited organization. The main threat will again be isolated damaging wind gusts with DCAPE values exceeding 1,000 J/kg. SPC has issued a marginal risk (1/5) for severe weather for our whole CWA. Efficient rain-producing storms will also be a possibility with PWATs around 2 inches and potentially strong updrafts. The potential for multiple rounds of storms from Wednesday morning into the night could result in flooding concerns especially for northern MO. WPC has issued a slight risk (at least 25%) for excessive rainfall for areas north of a line from the KC Metro to Macon. There is some uncertainty with storms late Wednesday afternoon into Thursday. How well the environment will be able to destabilize with multiple rounds of storms will be one uncertainty. Extensive cloud coverage could hinder the available instability. Also, timing and location of features such as the surface cold front or outflow boundaries will also be critical moving forward with our forecast. The cold front is anticipated to stall out somewhere over central MO. If the cold front stalls to the south of our area, better severe chances could reside in southern MO. Outflow boundaries could also play a role in where convection develops. For Thursday afternoon, cooler, drier conditions are anticipated on the backside of the surface cold front giving some areas relief from the hot and humid conditions. This will depend on where the cold front stalls out. As of now, guidance suggests somewhere near I-70. If this is the case, areas north of I-70 will range in the mid to upper 70s and areas south of I-70 will range in the low to mid 80s. An unsettled pattern with daily storm chances comes into play for the second half of this week into early next week as multiple weak shortwaves move through the flow. Speaking to temperatures, hotter and more humid conditions (heat indices of 100-107 F) are likely heading into the weekend as mid to upper level ridging over the western U.S. shifts farther to the east. The previously mentioned surface high will also gradually push to the east reorienting our winds out of the south increasing theta-e advection. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 638 PM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025 Expecting VFR conditions through the evening hours. Increasing cloud cover expected overnight with decaying thunderstorms moving out of Nebraska. Northern Missouri will likely see some activity overnight, with more uncertainty with how far south storms or showers will continue. Have placed precipitation activity into PROB30 groups for STJ and the KC Metro terminals, and will adjust as needed. && .EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. KS...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...CDB AVIATION...Krull