Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 012320
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
620 PM CDT Mon Jun 1 2020

.Discussion...
Issued at 238 PM CDT MON JUN 1 2020

Message of the Day: Our first wave of summer temperatures
arrives tomorrow. Multiple days of temperatures in the upper 80s to
low 90s with heat indices in the low to mid 90s are expected. Given
the cooler spring, extra precaution needs to be taken when outdoors
this week. Make sure to drink plenty of water and take frequent
breaks to remain safe.

Happy Meteorological Summer! And the summer weather is showing up
right on time, with a rather large upper level ridge has taken
shape over the central part of the country, and southwesterly
flow tapping into the Gulf of Mexico. These features will help
warm and humid air advect into our area. Today will be a stepping
stone, with highs in the low to mid 80s and really no heat index.
Tomorrow is the beginning of the upper 80 to low 90 degree
temperatures with heat indices in the low to mid 90s. These
temperatures and heat indices are expected to last at least
through the end of the weekend. No heat products are expected to
be issued at this time, since we are forecast to stay well below
thresholds. However, caution must be taken when outside this week
given this is the first time we will see these warm temperatures
and the warm temperatures will stick around for a prolonged period
of time. If you do spend some time outside this week, make sure
you drink plenty of water and take frequent breaks inside or in
the shade.

We will see a slight break down of the upper level ridge on
Wednesday and Thursday as a shortwave trough moves through the
Midwest. At the surface, a cold front will move into northern MO,
eventually stalling across MO (at least right now). This will be
the focus point for storm chances Wednesday into Thursday. Some
storms could become strong to severe Wednesday afternoon and
evening with ample instability (~3000 J/kg) across the area. Shear
won`t be as impressive though (~25 kts), so widespread severe
weather is not expected right now. Main concerns are strong winds
and hail. Moderate to heavy rainfall is also possible with PWATs
well above normal, so we may have some flooding concerns as well.
Storm chances, albeit smaller chances, will linger into Thursday
and Friday as well as additional shortwave troughs run the upper
level ridge. These rain chances and cloud cover may limit some
temperatures, mainly across northern MO, but above normal
temperatures are still expected.

Warm temperatures will continue for the weekend as the upper level
ridge moves back over the central U.S.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday Evening)
Issued at 619 PM CDT MON JUN 1 2020

VFR conditions will prevail through the period. Gusty south and
southwest winds will relax through sunset. Winds will remain out
of the southwest through the period.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...Atkins
Aviation...Kurtz


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