Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sioux Falls, SD

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FXUS63 KFSD 192056
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
356 PM CDT Sat Oct 19 2019

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday)
Issued at 355 PM CDT Sat Oct 19 2019

A quiet night ahead with increasing clouds out ahead of the next
system. Winds will be light with lows in the lower to mid 40s.

On Sunday, an upper level trough slides into the region as a surface
low pivots across our CWA. May not see much precipitation until
afternoon as the surface low moves out of central SD and low level
convergence increases across the area. Some model differences on
where this convergence/rainfall band initially sets up, but this
will lift eastward through the area on Sunday afternoon and evening,
with brief drying afterward as the center of the low tracks
eastward. Out ahead of the low, an increasing gradient will result
in strong southeasterly winds by afternoon. It will be another
relatively mild day however with highs into the lower 60s.


.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 355 PM CDT Sat Oct 19 2019

On Sunday night and Monday the wrap around precipitation on the
backside of the system works across the area, with increasing cold
air advection and gusty northwesterly winds. Monday will be a much
cooler day with highs only around 50. Models continue to indicate
wrap around precipitation lingering through Monday night, and while
this precipitation will primarily be rain, thermal profiles will
cool just enough by late at night that we could see a little snow
mix with the rain over the Buffalo Ridge area.

Brief drying on Tuesday as the system pulls away. It will again be
windy with highs in the upper 40s to lower 50s. Another weak
shortwave slides through the area on Wednesday, and models are in
decent agreement on this feature bringing mainly light rain focused
on east central SD/southwestern MN. Models continue to come closer
in consensus on the Thursday system, and it now appears that our
area may see little if any precipitation with better forcing pushed
into the Central Plains. It will be a cooler day however with highs
only in the 40s and lows on Thursday night dropping to near 30.

It appears to be dry with a gradual warming trend for the end of
next.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1152 AM CDT Sat Oct 19 2019

VFR conditions expected through the TAF period. Winds aloft will
increase later tonight, resulting in a period of low level wind
shear at KSUX on Sunday morning. Also, showers will develop over
central SD tonight, possibly affecting KHON by the morning hours
of Sunday.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...JM


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