Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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FXUS65 KGJT 232313

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
513 PM MDT Tue Apr 23 2019

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Wednesday night)
Issued at 344 PM MDT Tue Apr 23 2019

Closed low east of the Gulf of California in the large SW CONUS
trough continues to feed moisture into southern Colorado this
afternoon. Instability is being released as temperatures warm
and showers are becoming a bit more aggressive which will
continue through sunset. As this low begins to finally swing
eastward late this evening the northerly flow will be increasing
and drying things out temporarily. The westerlies entering the
mainland will be dipping southward as the strongest energy
reorganized in the higher latitudes. This will be more proficient
in pulling Pacific moisture inland by late in the week. We get
just a bit of moisture feeding in on Wednesday afternoon. The
system moving through this flow will be well to the north leaving
minimal large scale ascent over our region. The shower activity
will be limited to the Colorado high country and orographics as
lapse rates will be moderating. Temperatures will be warming a few
degrees tomorrow as the cooler air in this trough is pushed

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 344 PM MDT Tue Apr 23 2019

The northern stream will remain the more dominant and active one
to end out the week. Thursday will be similar to Wednesday as far
as shower activity goes though with slightly more moisture moving
in...the coverage should be a bit more robust. A stronger wave
moves into the PacNW early Friday and will arrive to the Rockies
by the evening. Again the main dynamics stay to our north but the
small increase in ascent will be enough that instability showers
become a bit more widespread from north to south over the CWA by
the afternoon. By the weekend the NOAM pattern shows an amplified
ridge building back into the Gulf of AK which can only mean cooler
and more unsettled weather downstream. Can`t say the model
solutions in the extended leave much confidence as a southern
stream low moving into the SW will be merging with the dip in the
Polar Jet across the West by early next week. The biggest
infraction in agreement is outside this forecast so won`t worry to
much about that outcome as yet. For now the southern stream system
looks to impact our CWA by Monday...followed by the cooler
northern stream system later on Tuesday. If this trend remain
intact expect precipitation chances to be on the rise over the
next few days.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 502 PM MDT Tue Apr 23 2019

VFR conditions are expected at most sites through the taf period.
There are some lingering showers that could impact KTEX and KASE
in the next few hours and potentially lower cig/vis for a brief
period. Otherwise the remaining clouds should clear out tonight
with a return to terrain-driven winds tomorrow. Showers may
develop in the vicinity of KHDN tomorrow afternoon and evening.
There is low confidence that the recent rain across southern
Colorado will result in low stratus development late tonight, but
it can`t be ruled out.




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