Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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FXUS65 KGJT 131939

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
139 PM MDT Sun Oct 13 2019

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Monday night)
Issued at 139 PM MDT Sun Oct 13 2019

The upper level ridge over the region will slide east tonight but
give us another night of clear and calm conditions good for valley
min temps below guidance. An upper level trough over the West
Coast today will move overhead late Monday with no more than some
increase in high clouds and mixing of gusty winds to the surface
Monday afternoon and early evening. High temps Monday will be
slightly above normal.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 139 PM MDT Sun Oct 13 2019

The mid week will be dry and warmer than normal dominated by an
upper level ridge. A transition to southwesterly flow on the
backside of aforementioned ridge will occur on Thursday. Breezy
conditions will likely develop again under the southwesterly flow
aloft. There does seem to be agreement among deterministic and
ensemble solutions that enough moisture will stream east off the
Pacific in advance of this trough to yield a few showers over the
mountains Thursday night and Friday. Based on the ensemble means
of both the GFS and European models, confidence continues to be
high that an upper level trough pattern will set up over the
western U.S. next weekend, with a colder than normal and wet
pattern. Details of timing and amounts of precipitation are yet to
be determined, but it does appear likely that the mountains of at
least central and northern CO could see more accumulating snow.
Temperatures will remain above normal through Thursday, then back
to near normal Friday, and below normal next weekend with the
trough overhead.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1126 AM MDT Sun Oct 13 2019

Persistance forecast contiues this TAF period with VFR conditions
and typical light diurnal wind patterns. Some low end afternoon
upvalley gustiness is likely at the typically breezier locations
like KEGE, KTEX, KGUC, and KASE.


Issued at 139 PM MDT Sun Oct 13 2019

A dry trough will move through the region late Monday and while
no precipitation is expected with this passage, gusty winds will
develop in the afternoon. Fuels remain critical and with dry
conditions in place, critical fire weather conditions will exist
across portions of northwest Colorado. Have upgraded the fire
weather watch to a Red Flag Warning and expanded it to include
zone 201. With snow on the ground above about 8500 feet, have
limited the Red Flag Warning to areas below 8500 feet.


CO...Red Flag Warning from noon to 7 PM MDT Monday for COZ200>202.



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