Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Green Bay, WI

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000
FXUS63 KGRB 272232
AFDGRB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
432 PM CST Thu Feb 27 2020

Updated aviation portion for 00Z TAF issuance

.SHORT TERM...Tonight and Friday
Issued at 200 PM CST Thu Feb 27 2020

Northwest flow under an upper level trough will produce lake
effect snow showers across far north-central Wisconsin through
Friday morning with some scattered flurries across the rest of
northeast Wisconsin through the early evening hours. A dusting of
snow accumulation is possible, mainly across Vilas County.

Skies are expected to clear out across much of the area tonight,
allowing temperatures to plummet into the single digits above zero
across much of the area. The warmest temperatures will be near the
lakeshore where lows could stay around 10 degrees, with
temperatures near or even below zero possible across portions of
central and north-central Wisconsin. The main deciding factor in
temperatures tonight will be winds. If winds die off temperatures
could fall further, if they stay up temperatures could be a bit
warmer.

Dry air will advect in late tonight and early on Friday, which
should end the lake effect across far north-central Wisconsin.
Temperatures on Friday will still be rather cool, rising to around
20 across north-central Wisconsin with lower to middle 20s across
central and east-central Wisconsin.

.LONG TERM...Friday Night Through Thursday
Issued at 200 PM CST Thu Feb 27 2020

The latest ensemble means continue to indicate that a return to
split flow will occur this weekend.  Over the past 24 to 48 hours,
the ensemble means have been showing greater separation between the
northern and southern streams, which would lead to northern
Wisconsin being placed in the middle.  As a result, generally quiet
weather is anticipated over the next week.

Friday night through Saturday night...A surface ridge axis will be
slowly moving east across the region on Friday night into Saturday.
Lingering northwest flow could lead to a few flurries near the U.P.
border on Friday evening.  But backing flow with the approaching
ridge axis should end any flurry activity by overnight.  Temps will
have a brief opportunity to tank on late Friday night with the
mostly clear skies and light winds.  Some mid-level clouds will
likely return on Saturday as warm advection increases on the
backside of the ridge axis, but cloud layers look too shallow for
precip chances. Although temps will start a warming trend on
Saturday, highs will remain in the low to mid 30s.  Warm advection
will then strengthen on Saturday night with ample high clouds
leading to a mild night.

Rest of the forecast...A weak cold front will slide across the
region on Sunday into Sunday night.  Upper level support will pass
by north and south of the region, so the front is anticipated to
move through dry.  More substantial shortwave energy remains
expected to move into the central part of the country in the Tuesday
night and Wednesday time period.  Northeast WI will be on the
northern fringe of this system and the ensemble means continue to
show that the heaviest precip will fall over the Ohio Valley. Precip
chances will therefore remain low over this time.  Temperatures will
generally range from the mid 30s to mid 40s from Sunday through
Wednesday, then cool down on Thursday.
&&

.AVIATION...for 00Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 430 PM CST Thu Feb 27 2020

The cloud shield on the western flank of the large cyclone over
southeast Canada will gradually shift off to the northeast
tonight. Bases across the area were high enough for VFR conditions
over all but the extreme north, were MVFR ceilings were occurring.
Expect winds to diminish a bit this evening, then pick back up and
regain their gustiness on Friday.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....Kurimski
LONG TERM......MPC
AVIATION.......Skowronski



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