Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Rapids, MI

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FXUS63 KGRR 191929

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
329 PM EDT Fri Apr 19 2019


Issued at 330 PM EDT Fri Apr 19 2019

- Several chances for rain through the 7 day forecast

- Temperatures fairly seasonable, to slightly above normal

- Chance for some thunderstorms Monday into Tuesday


.DISCUSSION...(This evening through next Friday)
Issued at 330 PM EDT Fri Apr 19 2019

Several chances for rain will occur over the course of the next 7
days. The first is associated with an upper low that is located
off to our south this afternoon over the deep south. The low will
move north tonight and bring a band of rain back into the area
late tonight and on Saturday.

The low will ease away to the east Sunday into Monday. On Monday a
warm front will set up across Central Lower Michigan with a low
off to our west. The front will be a focus for showers and storms
Monday into Monday night before the low moves through on Tuesday.
850mb LIs become negative Monday into Tuesday, so thunderstorms
are certainly possible. At this point it does not look like
anything close to severe, but some locally heavy rain would
certainly be possible.

The next chance for rain would come on Thursday night into Friday
with a potent looking clipper system diving southeast through the
area. Models are hinting at some locally heavy rain with this

Temperatures through the 7 day forecast look fairly spring like
with readings in the 60s to even around 70. Tomorrow may be the
coolest day in the next 7 with some clouds and rain showers


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 200 PM EDT Fri Apr 19 2019

Southwest Lower Michigan will be on the edge of the clouds over
the course of the next 24 hours. MVFR ceilings are in place at the
TAF sites with clearing just west of MKG. A clearing trend will
continue this afternoon and evening with most ceilings lifting to
VFR. The southeast towards JXN will hang on to the clouds through
the night. The clouds will try to back up into the area Saturday
morning with rain redeveloping at JXN.

Winds will be strong from the north-northeast the next 24 hours at
12-25 knots.


Issued at 330 PM EDT Fri Apr 19 2019

At this time planning on keeping the status quo with the Small
Craft Advisory. Waves will generally peak in the 4 to 8 foot range
tonight and only slowly come down on Saturday. Late tonight we
may be able to update and drop the northern zones, while
continuing the zones from Holland south into Saturday evening. It
will be close however with waves near 4 feet close to the 5 mile
mark off shore (the edge of our nearshore forecast zone). Waves
will be much more tame, 2 feet or less Sunday into Sunday night.


Issued at 330 PM EDT Fri Apr 19 2019

Where we have had recent snowmelt and heavier rains, across
Central Lower Michigan streamflow is elevated. In fact, we have
river flood warnings out at Bridgeton and Newaygo on the Muskegon.
Most other river forecast points are showing elevated flows as
well, north of the Grand River basin. Even in the Grand Basin,
some sites are out of bank, but not yet to flood stage including
Ionia and Maple Rapids. It will likely take another 1 to 3 days
before we see river levels falling once again.

Rain will back up into Lower Michigan once again late tonight and
into Saturday. Model data suggests a half to one inch may be
possible in the far southeast towards Jackson. This should not
affect river levels too much.

Additional rainfall is expected from Monday into Tuesday as a warm
front will be situated near the area and finally a low moving
through. Another round of rain is possible towards the end of the
upcoming work week. The bottom line is we remain in a somewhat
active pattern with additional chances for rain. Significant river
flooding is not expected in the next 5-7 days, but elevated flows
will likely continue as we receive additional rain in spots.


LM...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Saturday for LMZ844>849.



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