Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Rapids, MI

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FXUS63 KGRR 151656
AFDGRR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
1156 AM EST Fri Feb 15 2019

LATEST UPDATE...
Aviation

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 300 AM EST Fri Feb 15 2019

- Windy and much colder today with light snow showers

- Tranquil weather Saturday through Tuesday

- Impactful system possible Wednesday with accumulating snow

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1031 AM EST Fri Feb 15 2019

Shallow snow showers will continue for a few more hours as the DGZ
remains moist before gradually winding down this afternoon.
Those, combined with the blowing winds of 20 to 30 mph, will lead
to local impacts. Temperatures will remain nearly steady through
the day. The forecast update reflects some more snow and local
accumulations, generally and inch or less for today.

&&

.DISCUSSION...(Today through next Thursday)
Issued at 300 AM EST Fri Feb 15 2019

It will be windy this morning into the afternoon with falling
temperatures. Scattered light lake effect snow showers are
forecast as h8 temps fall to -11 to -12 C by this afternoon.
However deep moisture is lacking with relatively better moisture
confined to our northern fcst area. In addition inversion heights
will be very low today at only 2-3 kft agl. So overall this is not
a favorable lake effect setup and snow accumulations of an inch or
less are forecast today.

Tranquil wx returns tonight through Saturday night as a high
pressure ridge builds in. An upper level system will bring
potential for a little light snow Sunday through Sunday night with
accumulations of less than an inch.  Another high pressure ridge
will bring fair wx with seasonably cold temps Monday through
Tuesday.

A low pressure system will move northeast into the Ohio Valley
region Wednesday and bring potential for snow to our area. This
could be an impactful system for our area with several inches of
snow possible Wednesday into Wednesday night. Tranquil wx will
return late in the week as that system departs and high pressure
builds in from the west.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1151 AM EST Fri Feb 15 2019

MVFR conditions will prevail through the afternoon as Lake
Michigan continues to supply moisture to the atmosphere leading to
the cloud coverage we have. Locally IFR looks possible for a few
more hours as the snow showers slowly diminish. Some guidance
actually keeps the MVFR clouds around well into Saturday. For now
will continue to feature an improving trend to the TAFS as the
winds weaken and actually may become offshore later tonight
pushing any lake moisture away from the region.



&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 325 PM EST Thu Feb 14 2019

Nearly all rivers in our area have now crested after responding to
the volatile weather of the last 2 weeks. Many streams have now
fallen below bankfull levels, but parts of the Grand River (Ionia,
Lowell), Looking Glass River (Eagle), Maple River (Maple Rapids),
and Pere Marquette River (Scottville) remain above bankfull but have
been gradually falling.

There continues to be a major ice jam causing ongoing flooding in
the City of Portland. Water levels there will continue to fluctuate
up and down in response to shifting and changing ice conditions.

There is another ice jam that we are monitoring near Eastmanville,
near the 68th Avenue bridge. This ice jam is currently fairly small,
and is not currently resulting in additional flooding. There are no
ice jams in the Grand Rapids area, but we are still monitoring that
potential as the water will remain high for at least several more
days.

A combination of light rain and snow late Thursday through Friday
followed by cold temperatures will maintain the river ice and the
water contained in the snowpack. Precipitation amounts from the
weekend through the middle of next week also look light. No
significant warmups are expected to cause any appreciable melting of
snow.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MJS
SYNOPSIS...Laurens
DISCUSSION...Laurens
AVIATION...MJS
HYDROLOGY...AMD/CAS


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