Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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FXUS61 KGYX 241425
AFDGYX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
1025 AM EDT Wed Apr 24 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure will move southeast through Maine today and into
the maritimes this evening. Weak high pressure will build in
from the west late tonight and Thursday. High pressure will
shift east Thursday night as and area of low pressure approaches
from the west. Low pressure will push into the region from the
southwest on Friday and will slowly push east through the region
Friday night and Saturday. A narrow ridge of high pressure will
build in from the west Saturday night and will shift east on
Sunday as low pressure moves in from the west. Low pressure will
move east through northern New England Sunday night and into the
maritimes on Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1025 AM Update...Some minor adjustments to the going forecast at
this hour, mainly for temperatures and sky cover going forward
this afternoon. Significant breaks in the cloud cover are
currently being observed across portions of southern NH which
should allow temperatures to get a decent boost there. However,
with cold temperatures aloft any clearing across the rest of the
region will probably be short-lived. Some drizzle may continue
at the coast along with sct showers across the north (maybe even
some snow showers at higher elevations) as a short wave trough
moves through.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
Clouds will gradually diminish tonight as an area of weak high
pressure builds in from the west. Low temperatures will range
through the 30s across most of the forecast area to near 40 in
the far south.

High pressure will crest over the region early Thursday before
shifting east. Looking for a mix of sun and fair weather clouds
through the day. High temperatures will range through the 50s
in western Maine and lower to mid 60s in New Hampshire.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
00Z guidance in relatively good agreement bringing an area of
low pressure towards northern New England late Friday and Friday
night. Boundary layer temperatures and temperatures aloft will
be sufficiently warm to allow for the precipitation to remain in
the form of rain Friday night.

Colder and somewhat drier air returns to the region behind the
departing system on Saturday. However, the Canadian model
remains an outlier and allows for rapid intensification Saturday
as the low pressure system crosses eastern Maine. For now, will
lean towards more progressive solution that allows for upslope
rain showers in the mountains, which turn to snow showers by
Saturday night.

Any brief periods of sunshine on Sunday will be replaced by
increasing clouds during the day as another fast moving area of
low pressure approaches from the west. This will allow for more
rain Sunday night with the precipitation mixing with snow across
the high terrain.

Canadian high pressure will then slowly build over the region.
This will bring dry, but seasonably cool conditions for the
beginning of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Short Term...MVFR/IFR ceilings...improving to VFR downwind of
the mountains late this morning and early afternoon. VFR tonight
with areas of MVFR ceilings in the mountains. VFR Thursday.

Long Term...Ceilings and visibilities lowering to IFR in rain
and fog Friday afternoon and Friday night. A gusty westerly
wind will bring drier air into the region Saturday. IFR
conditions redeveloping Sunday night in showers.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term...Dropping SCA`s for seas. Expect winds to remain
light over the waters through Thursday.

Long Term...Winds and seas increase Friday night due to a
southerly flow ahead of an area of low pressure. Winds remain
gusty into the weekend behind the departing system.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Area rivers will remain high through Thursday as mild
temperatures contribute to snowmelt in the mountains and
foothills. Flood warnings remain in effect for the northern
Connecticut river and the Androscoggin river in New Hampshire.
The Kennebec river in western Maine also remains above flood
stage. More rain toward the end of the week and over the weekend
will likely result in more flooding on area rivers and will be
monitored closely.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
NH...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Ekster


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