Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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980
FXUS64 KHGX 230526
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1126 PM CST Fri Feb 22 2019

.AVIATION...
LIFR ceilings and fog will persist overnight and into the morning
hours Saturday. There could be some brief improvement near any
isolated light showers overnight, but that won`t be the norm and
isn`t indicated in the TAFs. Cold front and associated band of
shra & embedded tsra should push thru se Tx from northwest (CLL)
to se (GLS) between 13-19Z. Ceilings should gradually lift into
VFR territory a few hours after the front passes and rains end.
Look for wind gusts 15-25kt out of the wnw behind the front. 47

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 946 PM CST Fri Feb 22 2019/
UPDATE...
Longwave upper-middle level trough digging down into
Arizona this evening will be placing Texas in the more diffulent
region of the southern branch jet through Saturday afternoon. As
this trough axis tilts out and lifts northeast into the western
Plains overnight, the surface reflection will be one of lee
cyclogenesis that will aid in drawing the region`s quasi-
stationary/warm frontal boundary, and subsequently highly moist
(low 70F Td) air, further north. Mucky weather will persist
downstream of the eastward-advancing cold front that will be
reaching Central Texas around sunrise Saturday. 60 to low 70F dew
point air overspreading most of the CWA may allow for the further
expansion of dense fog. A Dense Fog Advisory is in effect for the
nearshore, bay, coastal and eastern CWA this evening. Western
visibilites are already beginning to fall to around a mile or
below this hour so this Advisory may likely expand westward by
Midnight tonight.

Low to mid 50s across the far northwestern CWA, or northwest of
the near stationary/warm front with all communities south of this
boundary remaining in their current average middle to upper 60s.
The cold front will cross the CWA tomorrow morning during the
daytime hours. With the region falling under the right rear
entrance quadrant of the jet mid to late Saturday morning, along
with mid-layer cooling brought on by the vicinity upper trough
axis, this will create near 6C sfc-3km lapse rates and keep the
threat for early day thunderstorms alive. There may be enough
late morning mid-layer cooling to weaken cap in tandem with upper
diffulence to produce strong to severe thunderstorms across the
northeastern CWA. SPC has the southwestern 2/3rds of the forecast
area under a Marginal risk with Slight risk just clipping eastern
Trinity and Polk Counties. The good news is that this frontal
passage will quickly scour out any remaining dense fog, cirrus
remains by the close of business tomorrow. Saturday MaxTs will
average in the upper 60s to lower 70s. Cold air advection brought
on by moderate north winds, with mainly clear overnight skies,
will have many interior locations falling into the low to mid 40s
/ lower 50s along the coast Sunday morning. 31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)      52  69  41  64  41 /  40  80   0   0   0
Houston (IAH)              64  73  47  67  45 /  30  80   0   0   0
Galveston (GLS)            64  73  55  65  53 /  20  70   0   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CST Saturday for the following
     zones: Austin...Brazoria Islands...Brazos...Burleson...
     Chambers...Coastal Brazoria...Coastal Galveston...Coastal
     Harris...Coastal Jackson...Coastal Matagorda...Colorado...
     Fort Bend...Galveston Island and Bolivar Peninsula...
     Grimes...Houston...Inland Brazoria...Inland Galveston...
     Inland Harris...Inland Jackson...Inland Matagorda...
     Madison...Matagorda Islands...Montgomery...Northern
     Liberty...Polk...San Jacinto...Southern Liberty...Trinity...
     Walker...Waller...Washington...Wharton.

GM...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CST Saturday for the following
     zones: Galveston Bay...Matagorda Bay.

     Dense Fog Advisory until noon CST Saturday for the following
     zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to Matagorda Ship
     Channel TX out 20 NM...Coastal waters from High Island to
     Freeport TX out 20 NM.

&&

$$



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