Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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FXUS64 KHGX 222102
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
402 PM CDT Mon Jul 22 2019

.DISCUSSION...

.NEAR TERM...
Shower and thunderstorm activity blossoming across coastal Texas
and northeast Texas...the former from weak disturbances passing
within the mid-upper layer steering northeasterlies (on the
NW`ern side of an area of disturbed western Gulf weather) and the
latter from the approach of a very rare late July cold frontal
boundary. Like in previous days, this activity is expected to wane
with the loss of heating. Many reached the middle 90s before the
passage of any storm outflow rain-cooled air.

.SHORT TERM...
A very rare summer cold frontal passage early tomorrow will increase
north-to-south PoPs through the daytime hours. A drier column has
shower and storm chances on the decline...slight chances across
metro but higher closer to the coast where the higher moisture
will reside. Frontal forcing may squeeze out more further
interior showers but feel the best chances for higher QPF, better
organized convection to occur over the coastal counties and points
offshore tomorrow. After some trusted research from our trusty
Lead Meteorologist, it was discovered the last time this area has
experienced a true, bonafide cold front was 27 years ago in
August of 1992! His method was to see when the last time a
previous 90 F (plus) degree day was followed by a morning under 70
F degrees during the June through August period. WPC archived
surface analysis verified the occurrence this prior heat of summer
cold fropa. Typical Tuesday morning minTs in the middle to upper
70s with a day mainly in the 80s during the frontal passage.
Wednesday and Thursday will be the days we most benefit from this
relatively cooler and drier weather.

.LONG TERM...
A very pleasant temperature forecast that is a few months early...
interior dew points falling into the upper 50s (north) to middle
60s (coastal) will make it feel like October in July! Mornings is
when this unseasonable air mass will be most felt as minimum
temperature readings fall into the lower to middle 60s (rural) to
around 70 in more urbanized areas. Mid week afternoons will warm
into the bearable upper 80s to lower 90s.

Rain will enter the forecast over the weekend and into early next
week. With the region still falling in a general height weakness
between two large highs planted over the 4 Corners region and the
eastern Atlantic...higher moisture will pick up %RHs and rain
chances to low end probabilities by Sunday and Monday afternoons.
Winds come back around to onshore by Friday and the moisture pump
commences a return to a normal summer-like pattern for us here in
southeastern Texas. So, scattered -TSRA will be in play along
with the late July heat and mugginess. 31

&&

.MARINE...
Weak high pressure over the western Gulf of Mexico will maintain a SW-S
wind over the coastal waters tonight. The pressure gradient is not
particularly tight so wind speeds not expected to exceed 15 knots through
Monday night unless influenced by convection. A rare July cold front is
expected to cross the coastal waters Tuesday morning and winds will become
N in the wake of the front by Tuesday evening and veer to the NE overnight
into Wednesday. A short lived SCEC may be required for parts of the
Gulf waters Tues Night/early Wednesday. A moderate NE flow is
expected Wed/Thu as high pressure builds toward the mid Mississippi
river valley. The Tuesday cold front will return north as a weak
warm front on Thursday night. East winds Thursday night will become
SE as the front pushes north with onshore winds then persisting
through next weekend. No rip current or tide issues are expected
through Monday night. 43


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)      76  90  66  91  65 /  30  10  10   0   0
Houston (IAH)              76  90  70  91  68 /  50  20  10   0   0
Galveston (GLS)            82  90  77  88  77 /  50  50  40  10  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...31/43



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