Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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FXUS64 KHGX 301223
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
723 AM CDT Fri Jul 30 2021

.AVIATION [12Z TAF Issuance]...

MVFR visibilites/ceilings will dissipate shortly after sunrise.
VFR will prevail the rest of the day. Southern airports (IAH,
HOU, SGR, LBX, and GLS) might see some afternoon tstorms, so VCTS
from approximately 20-01Z for those sites. Exact location of these
afternoon pop-up storms is uncertain right now, so expect short
term amendments should this activity impact a terminal. Brief
MVFR or IFR visibilites/ceilings and variable gusty winds
possible with the strongest activity.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /Issued 334 AM CDT Fri Jul 30 2021/...


.SHORT TERM [Through Saturday Night]...

A strong ridge stretching from Texas to the Pacific Northwest flanked
by a trough across the Eastern US will remain in place through the
short-term forecast. As the mid-level high pressure drifts slightly
north today, this will steer a mid-level easterly wave across the
Gulf Coast states through the weekend. For the southern half of our
CWA, PWs will climb to near 2.2 inches today and forecast soundings
predict at least 2000 J/kg of CAPE. This combined with other
instability indices and daytime heating should be enough to fire off
some afternoon showers and thunderstorms across the southern half of
our CWA. Our northern CWA will be competing with more subsidence and
relatively drier air, so deep convection will be harder to initiate
and maintain itself throughout the day primarily north of Harris
County. By Saturday morning, the mid-level high pressure will still
be north of our CWA while the mid-level easterly wave will be draped
across Coastal TX. This will provide just enough weakness aloft to
initiate afternoon showers and thunderstorms across our southern
counties, especially along the coast.

As far as temperatures go, it is still going to be a warm and humid
weekend. Daytime highs will be in the mid-90s and heat index values
will hover near heat advisory criteria this afternoon. Regardless
with heat index in the triple digits, it is still important to
practice proper heat safety when going outside for extended periods
of time. By Saturday, temperatures are forecast to be a few degrees
higher and therefore, heat index values will also be slightly
higher, prompting a potential heat advisory for Saturday.

KBL


.LONG TERM [Sunday Through Friday Night]...

Another day of very warm temperatures (highs in the mid to upper 90s
and maybe even reaching 100 degrees at some spots) can be expected
on Sunday. Once again, we`ll be monitoring the possibility of a
Heat Advisory as heat index values approach or even exceed 108 degrees.
We might need to do the same thing again on Monday for parts of
the area before relief comes with an early August cold front.
Whether or not a Heat Advisory is in effect, continue to take all
heat safety precautions - practice heat safety wherever you are.

The front will slowly work its way southward toward our area in the
late Monday-Tuesday time period as the pattern shifts to ridging out
west and a trough out east. Increasing cloud cover and a rise in rain
chances can be expected with this front that could linger across parts
of our area through Thursday before beginning to retreat back northward
on Friday. 42


.MARINE...

Light to occasionally moderate onshore winds will persist. Shower and
thunderstorm chances will remain in the forecast for mainly overnight
through morning activity. Stronger and variable winds along with locally
higher seas will be possible with any strong storms.  42


.CLIMATE...

The low temperature yesterday (July 29th) at Houston Hobby Airport was
81 degrees. This tied their old record of 81 degrees set in 2017.

Hobby`s average low temperature so far this month has been 77.8 degrees.
Dating back to 1931, this ranks as their 5th warmest July 1-29 period
on record. In first place is 2020 with an average of 78.8 degrees. 42

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

College Station (CLL)  94  75  95  76  98 /  20  10  10   0  20
Houston (IAH)          95  77  97  77  97 /  30  20  40   0  40
Galveston (GLS)        91  82  91  82  92 /  30  20  30  10  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

TX...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$


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