Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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FXUS64 KHGX 012046

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
346 PM CDT Mon Jun 1 2020

.SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Tuesday Night]...

A weak upper level low over South Texas will open up into a weak
trough as it drifts toward southern OK. The trough will move east
allowing upper level ridging to amplify over the southern Rockies
and expand into Texas.

For the rest of the afternoon, cirrus has limited heating and
showers and thunderstorms have struggled to develop. But with a
little more heating, would expect scattered showers to initiate.
Best lift should be just to the E-SE of the upper low which
roughly targets the W-SW zones. PW values remain high and lift on
the east side of the upper low should keep a few showers in the
forecast tonight. Cloud cover should keep MinT on the warm side
with lows from around 70 inland and upper 70`s coast. Despite the
upper low transitioning to more of a trough, SE TX will still lie
on the east side of the upper trough axis. PW values remain above
1.75 inches and convective temperatures range between 86-88
degrees, would still expect scattered daytime showers and
thunderstorms. Things will begin to dry out Tuesday night as the
upper trough moves NE and 500 mb heights build from the west. 43

.LONG TERM [Wednesday Through Monday]...

Heading into the middle of the week, expect little change to the
overall pattern with warm and humid conditions persisting as we
head into the weekend. With surface high pressure continuing to
remain in place across the southeast US coast and weak ridging
aloft, light to moderate onshore winds should continue to supply
a steady influx of low-level Gulf moisture to SE Texas. This
should keep PWAT values within the 1.75 to 2.0 range through
Friday. As we`ve seen over the past few days with a similar
pattern in place, differential heating and the subsequent
northward propagation of the resultant sea breeze boundary should
allow for scattered showers and thunderstorms to develop during
the afternoon hours. Have continued to maintain 15-30% PoPs
through Friday as a result. High temperatures will remain fairly
close to June climatological normals through the duration of the
forecast period, with most areas continuing to see values in the
low 90s. Dew points in the low to mid 70s may result in some heat
index values reaching the 100s by the end of the week, so be sure
to exercise caution if you`re planning any outdoor work or

We continue to monitor development in the tropics, with a
significant amount of uncertainty entering the forecast picture as
we head into next weekend. The National Hurricane Center will
begin to issue advisories on a disturbance (formerly known as Tropical
Storm Amanda in the Pacific Basin) over the Yucatan Peninsula
later this afternoon, which will be designated as Tropical
Depression Three. Global models, although showing significant
variability in the track and intensity of the storm, place its
center of circulation in the Central Gulf by the end of the
weekend. With a great deal of divergence amongst the global
deterministic and ensemble solutions, it`s too early to discuss
any potential impacts to SE Texas due to low confidence. The
eventual path that the storm does take is likely to hinge upon the
placement and amplitude of the upper ridge over the weekend, with
the GFS currently favoring a more progressive solution and thus a
more eastward storm track. ECMWF, on the other hand, favors a
slower solution which results in a westward turn in storm motion
as the system approaches the Gulf coast. Regardless of the impacts
of this particular storm, we do encourage everyone to have their
hurricane plans in place and emergency kits prepared for hurricane
season, which did officially begin today.




Broad low pressure over the southern Gulf and high pressure over
the eastern seaboard will maintain an easterly flow through
Wednesday. Low pressure will develop over the central plains
Wednesday night and winds should veer to the SE. The broad area of
low pressure will become much better defined and this feature
will begin to move north. Winds will once again back to the E-NE
and gradually increase as the gradient tightens. Conditions look
favorable for a tropical storm to develop and NHC will initiate
advisories on TD 3 at 4 PM CDT. Where the TD goes over the weekend
will obviously have a huge impact on marine winds/waves. Still
some inconsistencies between model solutions but there is a
growing consensus that a Tropical Storm will move into the central
Gulf by Saturday and toward the LA coast by Sunday AM. A blocking
ridge will shunt the system westward toward the Texas/LA coast
Sunday night/Monday. Have remained conservative with wind speeds
and waves for now until models come into better agreement.
Mariners and marine partners should keep up with the latest
forecasts as deteriorating conditions are expected Friday through
next Monday. 43



The National Hurricane Center will begin to initiate advisories on
Tropical Depression Three, currently located in the Bay of
Campeche, this afternoon at 4PM CDT. As discussed above,
significant uncertainty in the eventual track of this system
amongst model guidance sources has kept forecast confidence
fairly low at this time. With today marking the beginning of the
official Atlantic Hurricane Season, it nonetheless is a time to
remain vigilant of tropical weather activity and to have a
hurricane plan in place with an emergency kit prepared.




College Station (CLL)  70  89  70  90  71 /  30  20  10  20  10
Houston (IAH)          72  91  73  89  73 /  20  20  10  30  10
Galveston (GLS)        78  85  78  84  77 /  10  10  10  30  20






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