Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Joaquin Valley, CA

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FXUS66 KHNX 171058
AFDHNX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Joaquin Valley - Hanford CA
258 AM PST Sun Feb 17 2019

.SYNOPSIS...A very cold storm system will bring additional showers
to the central California interior through this evening with snow
down into the foothills. Dry conditions are expected on Monday
and Tuesday, but more wet wintry weather is possible for Wednesday
night and Thursday with clearing by the end of the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Regional radar loop of yesterdays activity showed several showers
associated with an upper level trough that moved through CENCAL.
Some storms produced small hail in the lower elevations and
moderate to heavy snow in the Sierra. A MCV even developed along
the foothills for enhanced precipitaton across Fresno and Tulare
counties.

The main upper low has opened up and new sfc low center has
developed over NORCAL and is sliding south into our area this
morning and will move through the region during the day today.
Increasing precipitation is forecast and we will see moderate
rain in the SJV and moderate to heavy snow in the foothills and
the Sierra. Low pressure center slides into SE NV by 06z tonight
as wrap around moisture will keep upslope conditions across the
Kern County mountains. Current winter advisory runs through this
afternoon and may need to be extended if new guidance keeps the
precip going across the Kern county mountains into tonight.

The sfc low moves out of NV by Monday morning as drying conditions
will develop over most of the SJV. Some residual clouds and even
a few showers are possible in the Kern county mountains into early
Monday. Cold air will settle into the region for Tuesday morning
as the SJV will see several hours of below 32 degrees. A freeze
watch may be needed for Tuesday morning for the SJV if guidance
continues to trend colder.

We will see a break in the wet weather through Wednesday before
a cold front will cross the region Wednesday night into Thursday.
Model guidance is not showing a lot of precip with this front.
The source of the air mass is arctic and snow levels are forecast
to be very low. We would not rule out a few flurries below 1000
feet in elevation early Thursday morning as the precip ends.
Clearing conditions will once again return for Friday and Saturday
with near normal high temps and slightly below normal lows.

&&

.AVIATION...
Local MVFR/IFR conditions in mist/fog across the San Joaquin Valley
through 17Z Sunday. Areas of MVFR/IFR with mountain obscurations in
low clouds and precipitation across the Southern Sierra Nevada, the
Mariposa, Madera, Fresno, and Tulare County foothills, and the Kern
County mountains will persist through Sunday evening.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
None.

&&

.CERTAINTY...

The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is medium.
The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.

Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit
www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information
an/or to provide feedback.

&&

.HNX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Winter Storm Warning until 4 PM PST this afternoon CAZ096-097.

Winter Weather Advisory until 4 PM PST this afternoon CAZ095.

Winter Weather Advisory until 4 PM PST this afternoon CAZ093-094.

&&

$$

public...JDB
avn/fw...DCH
synopsis...JDB

weather.gov/hanford


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