Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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FXUS62 KILM 240746
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
346 AM EDT Wed Apr 24 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will dominate through Thursday with warm, dry and
breezy conditions. An approaching front will bring chances for
showers and thunderstorms Friday afternoon and evening. High
pressure returns for the weekend. Another cold front cross the
region Late Sunday, although rainfall chances with this front
appear to be low. Seasonable weather will return early next
week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 330 AM Wednesday...Latest surface analysis shows 1018 mb high
pressure near the FL/GA coast with a trough of low pressure over the
western Carolinas. The high slides east today as a mid-level ridge
axis moves into the area. This will allow for an even warmer day
than yesterday...highs in the upr 80s most inland areas, lower 80s
near the coast. Otws, passing high clouds with 10-20 mph SW winds.

Not much change in the wx pattern tonight and Thursday with the
surface high centered SE of the area and mid-level ridging still
over the area. No chance of precip with again just some high clouds.
Low temps tonight in the low/mid 60s, and high temps Thursday
ranging through the 80s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 3 AM Wednesday...Flat 5h ridge axis will be off the coast Thu
night with a weak shortwave riding up the west side of the ridge.
Deep southwest flow starts spreading moisture northward at the same
time, with potential for at least some isolated showers early Fri
morning. Best chances though will be Fri afternoon and evening, just
ahead of a cold front, when precipitable water reaches 1.5 inches
and low level convergence peaks. Along with low level convergence,
the low level jet will be on the order of 50 kt as convection starts
moving into the area. Shortwave moving through the base of the 5h
trough Fri afternoon/evening spreads PVA over the area, enhancing
limited surface based instability. Appears as though a broken line
of convection will move across the area later Fri. At this point the
threat for severe weather seems rather low and will really be
dependent on how much instability can develop in the warm sector
during the day. Cloud cover is likely to be extensive (even before
daybreak) and highs will struggle to hit 80.

Front moves off the coast by early evening with modified high
pressure building in from the west. Skies clear in the wake of the
5h trough, but cold advection and pinched gradient will help keep
the boundary layer mixed. Fri night lows end up near to slightly
below climo.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 3 AM Wednesday...Little in the way of significant weather
slatted for the long term. Flat mid-level flow in the wake of
exiting trough Sat morning is interrupted by weak 5h trough Sun
into Mon. Flat flow returns next week as mid-level ridge over
the Gulf of Mexico starts to expand north.

-High pressure Sat is displaced east by weak cold front Sun
 night. Warm advection pushes temps above climo for the weekend.

-Lack of moisture return ahead of the front and weak nature of
 the 5h trough limits precip chances Sun and Sun night.

-Cooler and drier high pressure builds in from the northwest
 Mon. Modest cold advection drops temps near climo.

-High pressure shifts off the Mid Atlantic coast Tue with return
 flow leading to temps a little above climo.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 06Z....VFR conditions continue to prevail, with high
pressure to the south and a surface trough digging in from the
north. Scattered cirrus clouds move in from the west through
the TAF period. No fog expected due to marginal moisture
available and boundary winds a little too strong. Current
southerly winds to become southwesterly, up to 10-15 kt.

Extended Outlook...VFR conditions to persist thru much of the
extended period. A frontal boundary is progged to partially back-
door Thu before lifting back north. Could see MVFR from shra on
Fri as low pressure crosses the Eastern Carolinas.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 330 AM Wednesday...Sub-Small Craft Advisory conditions through
Thursday. High pressure will remain centered S/SE of the area with
low pressure well off to the west. SW winds avg ~15 kt
today/tonight, increasing to 15-20 kt Thursday aftn as the pressure
gradient increases slightly. 2-4 ft seas through the period.

Increasing southwest flow Thu night and Fri may require a low end
Small Craft Advisory Fri into Fri night, before cold front moves
offshore and westerly flow develops. Duration of any SCA associated
with the front should be short lived as both winds and seas will be
decreasing in the post front regime. Weak surface high migrates
across the waters Sat into Sun with weakening northerly flow Sat
flipping to southerly for Sun. Seas will drop to 3 ft or less Sat
afternoon and remain 3 ft or less through Sun.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for SCZ054-056.
NC...Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for NCZ106-108.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MAS
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...MAS/VAO


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