Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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FXUS62 KILM 190743
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
343 AM EDT Mon Aug 19 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
A stationary front will transition into a trof of low pressure
across the central Carolinas and will persist thru late this
week. Weak high pressure will affect the area thru the midweek
period. A cold front will drop down from the north and stall
across the area Fri thru next weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The FA will remain trapped between the 2 synoptic upper highs,
within weak upper troffing. The upper trof axis will remain west
of the ILM CWA and as a result will be affecting moreso by the
flow around the Bermuda high.

Today models feature some drying aloft with PWs having dropped
below 2 inches and could further lower to around 1.70 inches.
Still though, plenty of avbl moisture for convection to develop.
The sea breeze and the stalled front, which will transition
into a sfc trof across the central Carolinas, will provide the
necessary force ie. vertical motions, to initiate convection
both days. The days insolation will provide plenty of
instability both days to fuel thunderstorms. POPs will run 20 to
40 today and 30-40 Tue...lowest along the immediate coast
especially in the wake of the inland progressing sea breeze
during both days. Max temps will run slightly above normal today
and near normal Tue. The low to mid 70s dewpoints today will
combine with afternoon temps in the 90 to 95 range, and produce
heat indices at 100-103 degrees, just below the 105 threshold
for a Heat Advisory. Tonights lows will run above the norm.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Weak 5h cutoff develops in the break in mid-level ridge over the
Southeast early Tue. This feature is slow to move northeast, with
deep southerly flow helping to spread moisture over the eastern
Carolinas. As the low drifts east-northeast, it will send an
occasional shortwave across the area. The enhancement of upward
motion ahead of each wave coupled with diurnal instability and deep
moisture will produce a convectively active period. The sea breeze
and lingering convective boundaries will also act as potential
triggers for daily convection. Presence of forcing outside of
diurnal heating does suggest activity may continue into the
overnight periods, however this will depend on timing. Passage of
any shortwave will be followed by a period of decreased or even no
activity before the post wave subsidence moves off and the
environment becomes more favorable. Highs will be near to slightly
above climo each afternoon with lows running above climo.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Unsettled conditions will continue through the start of next week
with weak mid-level troughing and deep moisture lingering over the
Southeast. Piedmont trough and sea breeze will act as triggers while
weakly divergent flow aloft aids upward motion.

-Scattered showers and thunderstorms each afternoon and evening. At
this point severe weather does not appear to be a concern.

-High temperatures near climo with low temperatures above climo.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Mainly VFR this morning with possible sct/bkn MVFR low stratus,
ie. bkn015, mainly along the coast. Inland terminals could drop
to MVFR from fog and if winds decouple, IFR from fog may occur.
Diurnal heating will fuel the increasing instability and the
convergent sfc boundaries, sea breeze and inland troffiness,
will aid with UVVS. At this time have indicated vicinity TSRA
during the afternoon coastal terminals and from mid-afternoon
thru mid-evening for the inland terminals. Later fcsts should
be able to identify any tempo TSRA groups. Flow overnight will
range from 220-250 at 5 kt or less, and this will continue thru
late morning. Coastal terminals will see the sea breeze develop
by midday, ie, 170-200 at 10-15 kt, and will progress inland
with impeding flow aloft not very strong.

Extended...Mainly VFR each day. Exceptions...Brief MVFR/IFR
from tstorms each aftn thru early evening...and MVFR from
early morning fog and/or low stratus each day mainly for the
inland terminals.

&&

.MARINE...
Today thru Tue:
Flow around Bermuda high will dominate the SSW-SW winds this
period. The sfc pg will remain semi-tightened supporting wind
speeds of 10 to occasionally 15 kt. The hier end of this range
more likely will occur during the afternoon and early evening,
within 10 nm, of both days due to the development of the sea
breeze and its push inland. Significant seas will hold around 3
ft thruout the period with wind waves at 3 to 5 second periods
dominating the aftn thru mid-evening and the 8 to 9 second
period SE swell dominating at all other times.

Tue Night thru Fri:
Southwest flow will continue through Fri with Bermuda High sitting
offshore. Changes to the gradient, as the Piedmont trough
strengthens and then weakens, will lead to southwest flow around 10
kt each morning increasing to a solid 15 kt each afternoon and
evening before dropping closer to 10 kt overnight. Seas follow a
similar to trend to winds Wed, building to around 3 ft in the
afternoon before dropping closer to 2 ft overnight. Southerly
wind wave at 4 to 5 seconds will be dominant early in the
period, but a secondary south to southeast swell around 9
seconds will help increase seas Thu and Fri to 3 to 4 ft.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DCH
NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...DCH
MARINE...DCH/SHK


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