Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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FXUS62 KILM 270734
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
334 AM EDT Tue Jul 27 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
Shower and thunderstorm chances will increase through Wednesday
ahead of a front. Dry weather briefly returns Thursday before
rain chances increase into the weekend. Hot temperatures on
Friday with high humidity, could result in heat advisories.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Convective complex dropping SE into SE NC has overnight history
of producing excessive water due to partial training of cells
and high water vapor content to tap. The complex is expected to
shrink but will likely spawn new convection over the SE corner
of NC as outflow dips southward. Additionally we will see marine
showers tracking north, clipping the Cape Fear region through
early morning.

Into peak heating we transition to stronger storms inland along
and in vicinity of a frontal boundary, with plentiful fuel and
heating to kick Cbs off, mostly near and west of I-95 where
beefy rain-makers will troll. Because of above factors, we
remain in a `marginal risk` inland for excessive rain, which
translates to spot or isolated, brief flooding. The training
potential places a `slight risk` just to the west of our zones.

Wednesday sees renewed convection but focused closer to the
coast near the boundary. As such lowest POP values Wednesday
well inland and rain chances highest near the coast. High
atmospheric vapor content and the lingering boundary maintains
`marginal risk` excessive rainfall Wednesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Dry and warm weather in store for the short term period as mid
level ridging edges in from the west and dry air moves in aloft.
Low temps near climo in the low 70s Thursday morning increases
to above normal in the mid 70s Friday morning. High temps on
Thursday in the mid to upper 90s away from the coast, with heat
indices expected to reach triple digits. Parts of SE NC may
reach heat advisory conditions of 105 degrees heat indices.
Mostly clear skies and light winds will add to the
unpleasantness on Thursday.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Friday forecasted to be the warmest day of the week, with
downslope flow, increased 850mb temps, and late July sunshine
will push high temps into the upper 90s away from the coast
Friday. With increased humidity, heat advisory may be needed as
heat indices are forecasted around 104-109 degrees across NE SC
and SE NC. Temperatures return to near normal for the weekend as
a front drops down from the north late Friday and stalls across
or near the area for the weekend. Rain chances return beginning
late Friday, with best chances beginning late Saturday as a
surface low looks to develop along the front, and continuing
through Monday. Another front approaches the area from the
northwest late Sunday into Monday.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR, except MVFR ceilings and IFR VSBY possible between 8z-12z,
fog favored inland where a little less wind is to reside. Winds
becoming S today 7-12 knots, highest at the coast with a bit of
afternoon gustiness as is normal in a sea breeze. Showers
possible at coast 15z-17z, then VCTS inland aft 18z. Rain may be
heavy and VSBY will decline in TSTMs, erratic surface winds in
vicinity of TSTMs. Diminishing showers and storms between 0z-6z.

Extended Outlook...Thunderstorm coverage should remain a bit
more widespread through Wednesday with potential for MVFR and
brief IFR visibility then. VFR expected Thurs and Fri with
return of possible MVFR with another front into the weekend.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Wednesday...The tropical low that move into coastal
Georgia has not moved a great deal in the last 24 hours, and it
is weak, but it seems the SSE winds in the eastern semi-circle,
enhancing Bermuda flow, will bring an uptick in SSE wave energy
today, so overall wave heights will be a little higher than
local winds would create, dominant wave periods near 10 seconds
with the SSE waves, 2-3 ft. Concurrently, S wind-waves can be
expected of 1-2 feet every 4-5 seconds. Winds to remain
moderate, mostly S-SW 10-15 kt through the period, gustier
inshore in afternoons. Mariners are encouraged to obtain radar
updates before heading out since strong TSTMs will be possible
the next 48 hours as a weak front boundary eeks toward the
coastal waters.

Wednesday Night through Saturday...Winds less than 10 kts
Wednesday night will briefly turn offshore early Thursday.
South-southwest winds strengthen Thursday evening through Friday
evening, with winds around 15-20 kts. A surface front drops
down from the north late Friday and stalls nearby on Saturday,
and is expected to decrease wind speeds and make direction more
variable on Saturday depending on front position. Seas 2-3 ft
Thursday increase to 3-4 ft for Friday into Saturday. SE swell
will continue to persist into the weekend, with S wind wave
building beginning late Thursday.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ILM
NEAR TERM...MJC
SHORT TERM...VAO
LONG TERM...VAO
AVIATION...MJC
MARINE...MJC/VAO


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