Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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FXUS61 KILN 201945
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
345 PM EDT Sat Apr 20 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
Showers will end tonight as low pressure tracks northeast of the
region. High pressure forming behind the low will provide dry
weather conditions Sunday through Monday. The next chance for
showers and thunderstorms will be on Tuesday when a cold front
is forecast to arrive from the northwest.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
Surface low pressure, pushed by a closed upper low, is centered
over Western Pennsylvania. This system will gradually weaken
tonight as it continues its slow northeastward progress. As the
low fills in, showers and drizzle that persist in the nearly
saturated circulation around the low are forecast to show a
diminishing trend through this evening, with precipitation now
expected to cease by 2 am, leaving cloudy to mostly cloudy
skies.

Minor flooding from this rain event is already improving with
KIMO1 Kings Mills now below flood stage and MIAO1 Miamitown
soon to follow. Rest of area has had high stream flow and some
secondary road closures in typical low lying locations.

Temperatures that never rose above the mid 30s in Eastern
Indiana while reaching the upper 50s over Southeast Ohio are
making overnight lows tricky to forecast. By 6 am, expect
temperatures ranging from the mid and upper 30s far west, up to
the lower 40s for the remainder of the area.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
For Sunday, surface high pressure will be building from the
Eastern Great Lakes to the Tennessee Valley under a confluent
northerly flow aloft behind the departing upper low. Though no
precip is forecast, clouds may persist, aided by a lingering
cyclonic flow aloft. Those clouds may help keep temperatures a
bit below previous expectations, with highs forecast to range
from the upper 50s east up the mid 60s west.

As dry weather continues Sunday night under a building upper
ridge, skies will become mainly clear, and temperatures will
retreat to the mid and upper 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
On Monday morning, a narrow ridge will extend NNE from Louisiana
through the Great Lakes, with the Ohio Valley underneath the axis.
The region will also be on the west side of a departing surface
high, with southerly winds expected to continue a warming trend
across the region. Highs in the mid 70s are expected.

The forecast focus will then shift on a slightly busier stretch of
time through the next several days. As the ridge begins to break
down, a trough is expected to move across the northern tier of
states and into the Great Lakes on Tuesday morning. A surface low
will also move eastward across Michigan during this time frame. To
the south, general warm advection will continue, perhaps sparking a
few showers (or at least some enhanced mid-level cloud cover) on
Monday night into Tuesday morning. A more pronounced chance of
showers and thunderstorms will begin on Tuesday afternoon, as a cold
front trailing the Michigan surface low will move southeast into the
ILN forecast area. With the front not expected to move very fast,
and some secondary forcing moving into the area as a result of
another shortwave coming out of the middle Mississippi Valley,
chances for precipitation will likely continue well into Wednesday.
However, chances for thunderstorms will become less likely, with
more stable conditions expected on the back side of the surface
frontal boundary.

In advance of the front on Tuesday, temperatures in the southeastern
ILN CWA will likely approach 80 degrees. A sharper gradient is
expected on Wednesday with the front in the vicinity, ranging from
the mid 60s to the mid 70s.

Solutions for later in the week become a bit more problematic, with
uncertainty regarding the level of amplification of a larger trough
moving through the south-central portion of the country on Thursday.
A more amplified solution (ECMWF) would bring showers and storms
back into the Ohio Valley for Thursday and Friday, while a more
progressive and suppressed solution (GFS) would keep this activity
to the south. This may also have an eventual impact on temperatures,
though for now it appears that max temps will remain a bit above
normal (generally upper 60s to lower 70s).

Regardless of the way the Thursday and Friday time span plays out,
it does appear that a brief period of high pressure will follow the
departing trough. While timing could still change, as this is many
days out in the forecast, right now the most likely scenario would
allow for dry conditions to start next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Primary band of rain has pushed west of the terminals today,
but still have some lingering drizzle from KDAY down to the
Cincinnati terminals along with IFR conditions early this
afternoon. Meanwhile, with a recently developed southerly flow,
KCMH/KLCK have seen improvement, with cigs into MVFR.

Expect improving trend to continue into early evening, with MVFR
and perhaps even VFR KCMH/KLCK, with an eventual improvement to
MVFR across remaining terminals.

This may be brief however as most available guidance keep low
level moisture in place and suggest a return to IFR later
tonight into early Sunday morning. With reasonable confidence,
have trended in this direction for all TAFs. Clouds should
break and scatter by midday Sunday, promoting a return to VFR.

OUTLOOK...A chance of thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon and
evening.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Coniglio
NEAR TERM...Coniglio
SHORT TERM...Coniglio
LONG TERM...Hatzos
AVIATION...BPP



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