Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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347
FXUS61 KILN 211855
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
255 PM EDT Mon Oct 21 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will approach the mid Ohio Valley this evening,
bringing showers and gusty winds. Cooler and blustery
conditions will occur on Tuesday as strong low pressure persists
over Ontario. High pressure over the middle Tennessee Valley
will build in on Wednesday, continuing the dry weather. Southerly
flow will bring warmer temperatures on Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A weakening area of showers continue to lift northeastward out
of the CWA toward Lake Erie at this time. Winds have gusted in the
25-30 knot range so far this afternoon, and it doesn`t appear
likely to go much higher than that based on steady WAA and cloud
cover through the afternoon. The latest HRRR shows some
resurgence of shower activity later this evening, though thought
it prudent to keep a few light showers in the forecast this
afternoon based on radar trends. General agreement on frontal
passage is the pre-dawn hours in the I-75 corridor, and toward
sunrise in central Ohio, with a sharp decrease in showers behind
the front.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As the front exits to the east Tuesday morning, low level
moisture exits with it, so likely will see quick decrease in
cloud cover. However, H8 moisture returns quickly, especially to
the north and west, so cumulus will be present in the late
morning through afternoon hours. Tight gradient will lead to a
quite blustery day, with gusts reaching 25-30 knots in the CAA
once mixing commences.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Period starts with surface high pressure forming under a confluent
westerly flow aloft. While the high makes its way across the SE
CONUS, the subsident circulation around this large anticyclone will
provide dry weather conditions Wednesday through the daylight hours
on Thursday. For Thursday night and Friday, a boundary setting up
from the Great Lakes to the Mississippi Valley will bring a modest
amount of lift and moisture convergence, leading to a low chance of
showers. High pressure and a dry airmass are forecast to return
Saturday. A low pressure system developing under a potent mid level
short wave exhibiting divergence aloft should provide a better
chance for showers Sunday into Monday.

High temperatures will warm from the low 60s Wednesday to the mid
and upper 60s Thursday in warm advection and insolation around the
surface high. A retreat down to the 50s is expected Friday and
Saturday under cloud cover and decreasing geopotential heights before
readings rebound back to the 60s Sunday and Monday due to another
round of warm advection ahead of the low.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Gusty southeasterly to southerly winds ongoing at all terminals
this afternoon will continue into the late evening hours ahead
of a cold front. A weakening area of showers currently pushing
through central Ohio will continue through the vicinity of the
Columbus airports before exiting to the northeast. Expecting
additional showers this evening, with focus of activity causing
MVFR ceilings late this evening into the early morning hours
just ahead of the front. Rapid clearing will occur behind the
system around to just past sunrise, with the clouds lingering
longest in the Columbus area. Westerly winds will gust to near
25 knots on Tuesday as the cold air filters into the region.

OUTLOOK...MVFR conditions possible again on Friday with the
next cold front.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Hogue
NEAR TERM...Hogue
SHORT TERM...Hogue
LONG TERM...Coniglio
AVIATION...Hogue



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