Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Central Illinois

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369
FXUS63 KILX 111134
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
534 AM CST Wed Dec 11 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 335 AM CST Wed Dec 11 2019

A fast moving weather system will bring light snow to central
Illinois, mainly along and north of a Macomb to Paris line. A
light dusting can be expected; however, some areas along and north
of I-74 could see one half inch or more before it ends later this
morning. By afternoon, another cool, dry, and mostly sunny day
will be in store for central and southeast Illinois with highs in
the 30s. Mostly clear skies are expected tonight with temperatures
dropping back into the 20s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CST Wed Dec 11 2019

A fast moving weather system will bring light snow to central
Illinois, mainly along and north of a Macomb to Paris line...this
morning. A dusting can be expected; however, some areas along and
north of I-74 could see one half inch or more before it ends
later this morning. Mostly sunny and dry conditions are expected
for the afternoon, with mostly clear skies continuing through the
night...with light winds.

Temps should reach into the 30s across the CWA by this afternoon,
with overnight lows dropping back down into the 20s. Along with
light winds tonight, colder temps can be expected over any fresh
snow cover in the north.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CST Wed Dec 11 2019

Dry weather with moderating temps back into the 40s can be
expected Thur and Fri, but another weather system is forecast to
move across the area Fri night through Sat evening. Models differ
on timing, strength, and location of the heaviest QPF with GFS
strongest, having a sfc low, and higher QPF compared to other
operational models...so confidence is not very high on this
forecast. Most models also suggesting dry conditions for Fri
night, though still will have chance pops for now. Blend of models
does have qpf and pops for Sat and this seems reasonable at the
moment. P-type will stay as rain/snow until models come into
better agreement. After another brief period of dry weather late
Sat night through Sunday another weather system will into the area
across the southern half of the CWA for Monday spreading across
the remainder of the CWA for Monday night. Models differ with this
system as well so a blend of models looks to be the best forecast
for now, with snow and rain possible.

Temps will be in the 40s for Thur and Fri...and in some areas Sat,
but then become cooler than normal for Sat through Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning)
Issued at 534 AM CST Wed Dec 11 2019

VFR conditions should be the rule for all sites next 24hrs; except
for maybe PIA and BMI as a quick shot of light snow moves across
these two sites this morning. Will keep VFR at these two sites as
the snow moves through but have a tempo group of 3-4hrs of MVFR
vis and cigs for each in case slightly heavier snow moves through
the area. Once this moves through, clouds will become mid level
and then just high cirrus rest of the day, into the evening and
then becoming broken cirrus overnight. SPI/DEC/CMI will have mid
clouds this morning and then go to high cirrus this afternoon
through tonight; and like PIA and BMI, become broken cirrus
overnight. Winds will be south to southwest ahead of this fast
moving clipper system and then switch to northwest this afternoon
after it moves through, followed by light and variable winds late
afternoon through tonight...then switching to southeast overnight.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Auten
SHORT TERM...Auten
LONG TERM...Auten
AVIATION...Auten



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