Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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912
FXUS63 KIND 232253
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
653 PM EDT Fri Aug 23 2019

.UPDATE...
The AVIATION section has been updated below.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 243 PM EDT Fri Aug 23 2019

High pressure will build across the Great Lakes and New England
through the weekend. A frontal system is expected to affect the area
during the early to middle parts of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /Rest of This Afternoon and Tonight/...
Issued at 243 PM EDT Fri Aug 23 2019

Dry weather is expected through tonight as surface high pressure
builds across the Great Lakes. Lingering high cloud over the south
should thin out during the evening hours. Afternoon diurnal cloud
should dissipate as well after dark.

Low level thicknesses suggest the GFS MOS lows tonight look good for
the most part.

&&

.SHORT TERM /Saturday through Monday/...
Issued at 243 PM EDT Fri Aug 23 2019

Ridging aloft and surface high pressure drifting east into New
England expected to keep the weather mostly dry through Sunday.

By Sunday night, models suggest an upper low, seen in water vapor
imagery over the northern Rockies, will drift into the Midwest by
Monday. Deep southerly flow developing ahead of the upper low will
advect moisture rapidly north into the local area, with models
suggesting precipitable waters in the 1.75-2.00 inch range by
Monday. Ensembles suggest a precipitation threat may arrive as early
as Sunday afternoon over the south, but the better chances look to
be Sunday night and Monday. Will concentrate the PoPs during these
periods.

Progged low level thicknesses suggest the GFS MOS highs for Sunday
may be too cool. Will bump up the guidance a category in that
period. The remainder of the periods look OK for now.

&&

.LONG TERM /Monday Night through Friday/...
Issued at 248 PM EDT Fri Aug 23 2019

Frontal system will impact the area during the early part of the
work week, and blend pops look reasonable through Tuesday night.
Surface high pressure will be the dominant feature through the
rest of the work week, and had to remove some splotchy slight
chance pops placed in by the blend. Kept slight chances on
Thursday as an upper trough swings through the Great Lakes.

Temperatures throughout the period will be slightly below normal,
with low humidity mid week onward in the wake of the front.

&&


.AVIATION (Discussion for the 240000Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 653 PM EDT Fri Aug 23 2019

VFR conditions are expected through the period with high pressure in
control.

Expect scattered cumulus to dissipate this evening then redevelop on
Saturday. Dry air should keep fog at bay overnight. Winds will be
northeast at around 10kt during the day, and lighter at night.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JAS
NEAR TERM...JAS
SHORT TERM...JAS
LONG TERM...Nield
AVIATION...50



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