Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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889
FXUS63 KIND 191900
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
300 PM EDT Sat Oct 19 2019

.UPDATE...
The LONG TERM Section has been updated below.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 235 AM EDT Sat Oct 19 2019

High pressure is expected across the area through Sunday. A
frontal system will move through the area around Monday. In the
wake of this front, high pressure will move into the area for the
middle parts of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /Today/...
Issued at 235 AM EDT Sat Oct 19 2019

Dry weather expected across the area today, as weak ridging holds
locally in between a system lifting northeast out of the Gulf
Coast states, and a weak front approaching from the west. Some
increase in mid/high cloud possible later today as the Plains
front drifts east.

Low level thicknesses suggest the GFS MOS highs for today are a
little on the cool side. Will bump up the guidance highs a
category.

&&

.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Monday Night/...
Issued at 235 AM EDT Sat Oct 19 2019

Will hold onto a dry forecast through Sunday, as front washes out
over the area tonight, and main forcing shifts back out to the
west in association with system developing in the Plains.

Models suggest a cold front, associated with a deep low ejecting
towards the western Great Lakes, will move through the local area
during the day on Monday. Some of the ensembles are a little
slower with the frontal passage, delaying it until Monday night.
Nevertheless, precipitation potential with this front looks high,
as the system is quite dynamic. Will bring in chance PoPs starting
Sunday night, with higher PoPs slated for Monday into Monday
night.

Although lapse rates, and resultant instability, looks poor at
this time, the wind fields off the models are strong. These higher
winds have the potential to mix down on Monday if deep convection
can develop.

Progged low level thicknesses suggest the GFS MOS temperature
guidance during this period look reasonable for the most part, so
only minor adjustments planned.

&&

.LONG TERM /Tuesday Night through Saturday/...
Issued at 300 PM EDT Sat Oct 19 2019

Quiet and seasonable weather expected through much of the
extended as the deep upper low over the upper Midwest at the
beginning of the week lifts north into Canada...with the trough
aloft being replaced by quasi-zonal flow. Expect dry weather
through midweek with highs generally in the 60s.

Later next week...models begin to diverge with handling of a cold
front and available energy aloft. This is having an impact and
lowering confidence in greater rainfall coverage accompanying the
boundary and delaying the expected cooler air behind the front
itself next weekend. Hard to justify much higher than low chance
pops from late Thursday through early Saturday until the model
differences get cleaned up. Temperatures will fall back for the
weekend with highs in the 50s and lows mainly in the 30s as cooler
air advects in with potential for even colder air arriving for
the last week of the month.

&&

.AVIATION /Discussion for 191800Z TAF Issuance/...
Issued at 1250 PM EDT Sat Oct 19 2019

VFR conditions expected through much of the forecast period. Lower
ceilings may develop at KBMG early Sunday.

Ridging aloft continues across the region this afternoon in
between a weak front tracking across the Missouri Valley and
back side moisture from Nestor tracking north up the west side of
the Appalachians and through the Tennessee Valley. Other than
cirrus...expecting limited clouds into this evening with southerly
flow developing. Overnight and early Sunday...lower clouds
associated with Nestor may advect into southern parts of central
Indiana and impact KBMG prior to daybreak.

Expect a mix of clouds and sun Sunday as the weak front washes out
over the region and drier air aloft reestablishes.Development of
an inversion in the boundary layer may trap lower clouds but not
anticipating a thick stratocu deck at this point. Winds will be
light and variable Sunday morning.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JAS
NEAR TERM...Ryan
SHORT TERM...JAS
LONG TERM....Ryan
AVIATION...Ryan



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