Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 210640
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
240 AM EDT Sun Apr 21 2019

.UPDATE...
The LONG TERM Section has been updated below.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 1000 PM EDT Sat Apr 20 2019

High pressure will move in and result in dry weather through Money.
Patchy frost is possible tonight as skies clear.

Much warmer temperatures will return Sunday. Unsettled weather will
return by Tuesday as another low system approaches. Next weekend
looks mostly dry as high pressure makes a come back.

&&

.NEAR TERM /Tonight/...
Issued at 1000 PM EDT Sat Apr 20 2019

Pulled PoPs from all but far east central Indiana per radar trends.

Previous discussion follows...

Issued at 107 PM EDT Sat Apr 20 2019

The main focus of the near term period will be the potential for
patchy frost as strong radiational cooling commences behind a
departing low pressure system tonight. Overnight lows will dip
into the mid to upper 30s with rapid clearing tonight as high
pressure strengthens over the forecast area. But first, some
lingering showers will persist through this evening across the
eastern third of central Indiana until a low pressure system
currently over Ohio pushes farther east. The same goes for the
strong northerly winds. Sustained wind speeds into this evening
out of the north will range between 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to
30 mph, but they will weaken as the strong pressure gradient moves
eastward with the aforementioned low pressure system.

&&

.SHORT TERM /Tomorrow through Tuesday/...

Issued at 107 PM EDT Sat Apr 20 2019

High pressure will result in a high confidence forecast for Sunday
and Monday. Dry weather with plenty of sunshine can be expected
with above normal temperatures in the upper 60s/low 70s on Sunday
and mid 70s on Monday.

The pattern, however, will shift a bit by Monday evening though
as the upper ridge breaks down a bit with an upper trough entering
the Upper Midwest. So, there are low chances for rain showers
across the northern counties on Monday night, but confidence is
still low in regard to that. Confidence in showers and
thunderstorms does increase by Tuesday though as that
aforementioned upper trough moves farther into the Great Lakes
Region and forcing increases slightly. Meanwhile, the warm trend
will continue into Tuesday with highs climbing into the mid to
upper 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /Wednesday through Saturday/...
Issued at 238 AM EDT Sun Apr 21 2019

Ensembles indicate a fairly zonal flow can be expected during this
period, with a tendency for upper ridging to develop by next
weekend.

The ensembles suggest a weak short wave trough may traverse the
local area around Thursday, but it appears the more energetic
part of the trough will pass well to the south. Will go with
chance PoPs for Wednesday and Thursday, coinciding with the
passage of the trough. Will go dry after Thursday as heights rise.

&&

.AVIATION /Discussion for 210600z TAF Issuance/...
Issued at 1100 PM EDT Sat Apr 20 2019

Good confidence that flying conditions will be mostly or all VFR
with just some high clouds. The exception could be at IND and or
BMG, where the SREF and GFS LAMP are indicated there is some chance
of MVFR conditions in fog overnight and through 12z or so.

Winds will be variable at 3 or 4 knots overnight and southeasterly
or southerly to 6 knots or so after 16z.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Dense Fog Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for INZ036-037-
039-044>048-052>056-061>064-069>071.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MK
NEAR TERM...TDUD/MK
SHORT TERM...TDUD
LONG TERM....JAS
AVIATION...MK



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