Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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FXUS63 KIND 270739
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
339 AM EDT Tue Jul 27 2021

.Short Term...(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 331 AM EDT Tue Jul 27 2021

Synoptic pattern will remain essentially the same through the short
term as large dome of high pressure centered over the central
Rockies and north central Plains will continue to result in dry and
hot weather over the nation`s midsection. Meanwhile, central Indiana
will be in northwest flow aloft in between the expansive high
pressure and northeastern and eastern Canadian trough. Central
Indiana will be on the southwest periphery of the stronger northwest
flow aloft which will keep the threat that an MCS clips northeastern
sections of central Indiana low through Wednesday.

Subsidence, satellite trends, a dry a column and 800 millibar CAP
per model soundings support very little to no cloud cover through
tonight. Cu development progs support this for today. Things may
change a little Wednesday afternoon as the surface high drifts off
to just southeast of the Ohio River. Model rh time sections and
soundings show moisture increasing a bit in the lower levels. This
may be enough to see some limited diurnal cu.

With dew points a bit lower than last night and another dry day in
the rearview window, only expect very patchy shallow fog that should
be gone by 12z.

Full or near July sun will allow temperatures to reach the upper 80s
and lower 90s the next two days. With low level moisture increasing,
the Heat Index will reach 100 degrees or slightly more over the
Wabash Valley Wednesday afternoon.

&&

.Long Term...(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 339 AM EDT Tue Jul 27 2021

The long term will start out with the expansive upper high over the
intermountain west and central Plains with NW flow over central
Indiana. A short wave and associated cold front will bring storms
into the area from the north starting as early as early Thursday
morning. The front will prompt a narrow band of strong lift and
brings with it the potential for severe weather. Models are showing
CAPE of 3000 to 5000 across the region Thursday as well as bulk
shear in excess of 40 kts and decent lapse rates. Will have to
continue to monitor as we get closer.

Behind the front, the heat will finally end and cooler temperatures
will settle into the area with highs in the low 80s. The cold front
then looks to stall south of the area Friday while surface high
pressure will move in behind it allowing for a dry day Friday. It
then looks like the front could regress northward at times this
weekend which will lead to slight PoPs Saturday and Sunday.

There is some noise going into next week as expected, but it does
look like troughing will continue with Indiana on the backside of
it. This will place the state under north to northwest flow, but
this time will be pulling in cooler air from northern Canada and
keeping the cooler temperatures going.

&&

.Aviation...(06Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1131 PM EDT Mon Jul 26 2021

IMPACTS:
- MVFR fog possible between 09Z and 12Z at all but KIND.
- Otherwise VFR with winds less than 10kt

DISCUSSION: Another period of brief fog is possible from 09Z to 12Z
Tuesday, but coverage is not expected to be quite as widespread as
the previous morning`s since dewpoints are lower.

Otherwise VFR conditions are expected with perhaps a few cumulus
again Tuesday afternoon. Winds will be variable as high pressure
settles in but speeds will remain less than 10kt.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Short Term...MK
Long Term...KH
Aviation...50


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