Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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FXUS63 KIWX 251749
AFDIWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
149 PM EDT Thu Apr 25 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 143 PM EDT Thu Apr 25 2019

A weak front will lift into the area this afternoon as a low
moves northeast toward Indiana. Chances for showers will accompany
this feature, with the best chances along and south of Route 24
this afternoon into tonight. Highs today should be near 65. Cooler
and drier air will stream back into the area Friday into Friday
night.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 258 AM EDT Thu Apr 25 2019

Water vapor imagery depicting southern stream upper trough along
TX/OK border with northern stream short wave in the Dakotas.
Surface analysis has quasi-stationary boundary meandering across
the Ohio valley and is expected to lift northward today as frontal
wave lifts northeast out of Missouri into northwest Ohio. Deeper
southern stream system will be slower to progress eastward and as
a result will open up a pretty decent return flow from the gulf
with models now indicating better deep moisture transport
streaming northward into the E/SE CWA this afternoon into tonight.
Forecast soundings do hint at some weak instability which could
have some embedded convective elements resulting in some localized
heavy rain in far SE CWA within an otherwise moderate
precipitation shield. Updated QPF using latest blend guidance now
has over an inch storm total in this area. Seasonable to slightly
above normal temperatures in the short term with highs in the mid
60s and lows 45-50.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 258 AM EDT Thu Apr 25 2019

System phasing will have surface low deepening over Ohio Friday
morning and may result in some lingering wrap-around precip over
eastern CWA to begin the forecast period. Otherwise Friday will
feature gusty NW winds in CAA pattern but expect some clearing
skies in the afternoon that will still allow for highs near 60.
Winds quickly subside Friday night as surface ridge axis moves
overhead. Good radiational cooling overnight will have
temperatures dropping into the mid 30s over a good portion of the
CWA and bring frost potential by early Saturday morning. Mid-upper
level flow deamplifies somewhat leading to a series of
disturbances impacting the area moving forward in the long term
period. First of these systems expected to arrive late Saturday
into Saturday night with deterministic models coming into a little
better agreement with range of tracks narrowed to southern
Michigan to central Indiana and ensemble members showing a similar
spread. Remainder of extended period will feature quasi-
stationary surface boundary along the Ohio valley with intervening
disturbances lifting boundary northward into our area. Low
confidence pattern has blend spreading out chance POPs days 5-7
with nothing trending in the models at this time to offer any
potential refinement so will leave as is for now. Expect
temperatures to fluctuate from slightly above normal ahead of each
disturbance to slightly below behind them.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 143 PM EDT Thu Apr 25 2019

Satellite shows widespread MVFR cigs across the area and IFR just
to our south. Some thinning and breaks noted but these also
filling back in with CU. Overall expect MVFR rest of afternoon.
Radar also showing some light shra vicinity of KFWA. Likely no
impact but could see brief light shower next few hours. Better
chances for rain and vis restrictions arrive late afternoon KFWA
and overnight at KSBN. KFWA to drop to IFR with shra much of
night. Rain shield rotates northwest toward KSBN late evening
while a northern stream wave will bring rain in from the west
after 06z. KSBN may flirt with IFR but for now appears they may
primarily remain in MVFR category based on latest guidance. Drier
air and clearing with return to VFR expected Friday morning after
sunrise.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Skipper
SHORT TERM...JAL
LONG TERM...JAL
AVIATION...Lashley


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