Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL

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FXUS62 KJAX 180103

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
903 PM EDT Thu Oct 17 2019


Widespread cirrus shield pushing west ahead of developing Gulf Low
will continue through tonight, slowly thickening through Friday
Morning. This may help to keep low temps from reaching potential
by sunrise Friday morning but still expecting some mid to upper
40s over inland SE GA counties with 50s elsewhere. Clouds continue
to lower and thicken through the day on Friday with some
overrunning showers possible in the afternoon hours north of warm
frontal boundary across inland NE FL. Very weak insolation through
the mid/high clouds will keep Max Temps in the 70s, very close to
today`s values. Surface flow becomes East-Northeast around 10 mph
with a few gusts to 15 mph along the Atlc Coast by the afternoon.


[Through 00Z Saturday]

VFR through the period with lowering and thickening mid clouds by
Fri afternoon from 18z onward, but confidence too low at this time
to start including any shower activity.



Light North flow continues tonight in the 5-10 knot range with
seas 1-2 ft, then becomes E-NE on Friday at 10-15 knots ahead of
northward moving warm front south of the waters and seas slowly
building to 2-4 ft. Gale Watch still on track from late Friday
Night through Saturday Night as low pressure tracks NW of the
local waters with at least frequent gusts to gale force expected
along with the threat of strong/severe storms.



.Near Term.../through Friday/...

High pressure will build from the northwest Today, to the north
Tonight, then Northeast on Friday. An area of low pressure will
track northeast through the gulf toward the region Friday, with an
associated warm front extending east across the area from this front
in the afternoon.

The dry airmass will remain in place through Tonight, with
moisture increasing through the day Friday. The chance for showers
will increase from southwest to northeast Friday afternoon,
mainly over NE FL.

With the dry northwest/north flow continuing Tonight a cooler night
with below normal temperatures expected. Highs on Friday will trend
a little below normal as well.


.Short Term.../Friday night through Monday/...

Low pressure system in the northeastern gulf expected to move ashore
around the Florida panhandle late Friday night into Saturday. The
low is then expected to track across southern Georgia during the
day Saturday, and to the northeast on Saturday night. With the
region expected to be in the northeast quadrant of this system
Friday night, pockets of heavy rain anticipated. With the region
then in the eastern quadrant of this system late Friday night into
Saturday, potential for strong to severe storms will exist.
Isolated tornadoes can not be ruled out Saturday. Best potential
for elevated winds with this system will be in the Friday night to
Saturday night timeframe. Wind Advisories may be needed during
this period.

High pressure will build in Sunday into Sunday night. Moisture will
increase from the southwest Monday as a cold front approaches from
the northwest.

Temperatures will trend above normal this period, with the humidity
returning this weekend.


.Long Term.../Monday night through Thursday/...

Moisture will continue to stream northeast across the region
Monday night. A strong cold front is expected to then move
southeast across area during the day Tuesday. Potential for storms
will exist along and ahead of this frontal passage. High pressure
will build to the north Wednesday, with cooler and drier air
filtering into the region. The high will move to the northeast on
Thursday, allowing moisture to increase somewhat, but a mainly dry
day is expected at this point.

Temperatures will trend above normal through Tuesday, then trend
near to slightly below normal Wednesday into Thursday.



High pressure will be over the region through Tonight, then to the
northeast Friday afternoon. Low pressure will track through the
northeastern Gulf Friday and move just to the west of area waters
during the day Saturday, then to the north northeast Saturday night
into Sunday. Gale force winds expected late Friday night through
Saturday evening as this storm passes. In addition to the winds,
strong thunderstorms will also be possible. High pressure will then
build late Sunday into Sunday night. A strong cold front is expected
to move southeast across the region Tuesday.

Rip Currents: Low Risk through Friday. Becoming moderate to high
Friday night.



AMG  48  75  63  77  60 /   0  10  80  90  50
SSI  59  75  70  80  67 /   0  10  70  90  50
JAX  53  78  68  83  65 /   0  20  70  90  40
SGJ  59  77  70  82  68 /   0  30  70  90  30
GNV  56  76  66  82  65 /   0  50  80  90  30
OCF  58  77  68  83  68 /   0  60  80  80  30


AM...Gale Watch from late Friday night through Saturday evening for
     Coastal waters from Altamaha Sound to Fernandina Beach FL
     out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Fernandina Beach to St.
     Augustine FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from St. Augustine to
     Flagler Beach FL out 20 NM-Waters from Altamaha Sound GA to
     Fernandina Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Fernandina
     Beach to St. Augustine FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters from St.
     Augustine to Flagler Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM.

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