Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL

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FXUS62 KJAX 230713
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
313 AM EDT Fri Aug 23 2019


.Near Term...Today and Tonight...Ridging aloft will provide
hot and mostly dry conditions again today while weak low pressure
meanders to the south near se Fl and the northern Bahamas.
Relatively dry air will limit shower/storm activity today. Best
rain chances will be this afternoon over southern zones of ne Fl
as moisture starts to increase from the south. Afternoon
temperatures will reach near 90 degrees at the beaches and mid 90s
inland. High pressure will start to weaken this evening and
overnight with an increasing easterly flow bringing a chance of
coastal showers to Flagler/St. Johns counties late tonight.

.Short Term...Saturday through Monday...Wave expected to be
along central Florida coast Saturday, then to the northeast of
the region Sunday afternoon. Moisture will increase across the
region Saturday due to the proximity of the wave, with scattered
convection anticipated. With the system expected to be to the
northeast on Sunday, the region would be on the subsidence side,
leading to decreased chance for convection. At this point, given
uncertainty in movement and intensity of this system will favor
scattered activity for Sunday. A trough will extend from this
system across forecast area into Monday. Will keep precipitation
chances in the scattered to numerous range on Monday, due to the
combination of diurnal heating and boundary convergence.

Temperatures will trend near to slightly above normal this period.

&&

.Long Term...Monday night through Thursday...Troughing lingers
into Tuesday, with high pressure building from the south. With the
trough will favor precipitation chances in the scattered to
numerous range Tuesday. A cold front is expected to push southeast
into region Wednesday, then slowly move southeast across area
through Thursday. Will favor convective chances in the scattered
to numerous range with the front.

Temperatures will trend near to slightly above normal this period.

&&

.AVIATION...Patchy inland fog early this morning with possible
IFR/MVFR vsbys til 12z. Otherwise VFR conditions expected today.
Showers and storms will be mostly isolated today so will leave
out of forecast due to low probabilities.

&&

.MARINE...Atlantic ridge across the waters today will start to
weaken tonight and shift eastward. Weak low pressure near the
northern Bahamas will slowly organize and move nw to the Florida
peninsula and then shift east of our waters this weekend and early
next week. East southeast winds will increase to near 15 knots
with seas increasing up to 4 feet.

Rip Currents: Low risk today becoming moderate risk this weekend
as easterly winds and surf increase.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  94  73  94  73 /  20  10  40  40
SSI  90  79  90  77 /  10  10  20  20
JAX  93  74  91  76 /  10  10  20  20
SGJ  89  78  89  75 /  10  20  30  20
GNV  94  73  92  74 /  30  10  30  20
OCF  94  73  91  74 /  30  20  50  20

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

Zibura/23/


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