Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL

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FXUS62 KJAX 191859

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
159 PM EST Tue Feb 19 2019

.Short Term.../through Friday/...

Coastal low will move North with the warm front Tonight. Showers
will move north with this boundary, with much of the activity to the
north by dawn Wednesday. High pressure will build to the east
Wednesday, with an increasingly warm and moist south/southeasterly
flow. A weak wave is expected to move north through the flow which,
coupled with the warm and moist air will result in scattered showers
across the region, and the potential for a few storms over NE FL.
Temperatures will be above normal Tonight, then well above normal
for Wednesday. Readings will be coolest Wednesday along the coast,
where the SE flow will bring air across the cooler coastal waters.

High pressure will remain to the east through Thursday, continuing
the warm and moist flow. While a few showers can not be ruled out
Wednesday night into Thursday, the chance looks fairly low at this
point. Temperatures will continue well above normal through

The high to the east will weaken into Friday, as another high builds
to the north northeast. As the high builds to the north, the flow
will become more onshore. Precipitation chances will remain low into
Friday, with temperatures remaining well above normal. As the flow
becomes more onshore, readings could fall in the afternoon near the


.Long Term.../Friday night through Tuesday/...

High pressure will be to the northeast Friday night into Saturday,
then to the east Saturday night. The high will move to the southeast
Sunday, as a cold front moves in from the northwest. The current
timing has the front moving through Sunday afternoon and evening,
with much of the energy well to the north, so precipitation chances
with the passage are on the low side.

High pressure will build from the northwest Sunday night, then north
Monday. A wave of low pressure is anticipated to move east across
area Tuesday. The best chance for showers late in this period will
be Tuesday, but chance can not be ruled out Sunday night into Monday
as well.

Temperatures will continue the well above normal trend through
Saturday night, and possibly into Sunday depending on the frontal
timing. Temperatures will trend closer to seasonal averages Monday
into Tuesday.



Coastal low pressure will slowly move north across area waters
through tonight. An enhanced pressure gradient due to this low will
produce elevated conditions. High pressure will build to the east
Wednesday into Thursday. The high will build to the north Friday,
then northeast Friday night into Saturday. A cold front will move
southeast across area waters late Sunday into Sunday night. High
pressure will build to the Northwest Monday, then to the northeast
into Tuesday as a wave of low pressure moves in from the west.

Rip Currents: SE GA - moderate risk through Wednesday.
              NE FL - high risk Today, moderate to high risk Wednesday.



The coastal trough and frontal system are both lifting north with
isentropic lift occurring right over the Jacksonville metro
fields and developing northward toward KSSI. Everything is on
track this afternoon with ceilings between 1.2-2.5 KFT and
visibility between 4 and 6 Sm in light rain and mist. With
evaporative cooling and loss of diurnal heating expect ceilings to
gradually drop to between 3 and 6 hundred feet overnight with
visibility between 2 and 4 SM in -RA,-DZ, HZ, & BR late this
afternoon into tonight. Overall not going to be a fun
evening/night for general aviation from Jacksonville to Saint
Simons Island.


AMG  52  73  64  83 /  40  20  10  10
SSI  57  65  63  76 / 100  10  20  10
JAX  60  78  65  82 /  70  20  30  10
SGJ  64  74  63  79 /  50  30  60  10
GNV  63  80  65  83 /  50  40  30  10
OCF  65  81  64  85 /  50  50  30  10


FL...Wind Advisory until 6 PM EST this evening for Coastal Duval-
     Coastal Nassau.

     Coastal Flood Advisory until 11 AM EST Wednesday for Coastal
     Duval-Coastal Flagler-Coastal Nassau-Coastal St. Johns.

     High Rip Current Risk until 10 PM EST this evening for Coastal
     Duval-Coastal Flagler-Coastal Nassau-Coastal St. Johns.

GA...Wind Advisory until 6 PM EST this evening for Coastal Camden-
     Coastal Glynn.

     Coastal Flood Advisory until 11 AM EST Wednesday for Coastal
     Camden-Coastal Glynn.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Thursday for Waters from
     Altamaha Sound GA to Fernandina Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM-
     Waters from Fernandina Beach to St. Augustine FL from 20 to
     60 NM-Waters from St. Augustine to Flagler Beach FL from 20
     to 60 NM.

     Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EST Wednesday for Coastal waters
     from Altamaha Sound to Fernandina Beach FL out 20 NM-
     Coastal waters from Fernandina Beach to St. Augustine FL
     out 20 NM-Coastal waters from St. Augustine to Flagler
     Beach FL out 20 NM.



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