Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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FXUS63 KJKL 202025

National Weather Service Jackson KY
325 PM EST Wed Feb 20 2019

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 325 PM EST WED FEB 20 2019

The flood watch remains in effect through Thursday morning. Even
though we are expected the heavy rain to come to an end this
evening, runoff from this rain will continue to cause rises on
area creeks, streams, and rivers throughout the night. The latest
forecast has incorporated modified versions of the CONSHORT and
blended model data. The latest obs were also used to establish a
base line on which to base the initial conditions for the forecast
for this evening and tonight. The latest observed trends suggest
that the rain is moving out of the area a bit more quickly than
previously forecast, but we will still see several more hours of
rain across most of the area. A large area of moderate to heavy
rain is currently moving across the eastern half of the forecast
area, but this should be out of the area by early this evening.
Behind that, we anticipate that scattered to numerous showers and
a few thunderstorms will continue to move across the area, dumping
additional rain on the area. The last of the rain should be
exiting the area by early Thursday morning. Temperatures will
continue to run above normal for the next few days. Rivers,
creeks, and streams will continue to run high through the end of
the upcoming weekend, and maybe even the first of next week based
on the current forecast curves. A number of flood advisorys and
warnings are currently in effect to handle ongoing high water
issues across the area. We should see a brief reprieve from the
rain on Thursday, before the next round of rain moves into the
area Thursday night ahead of the next weather system.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 315 AM EST WED FEB 20 2019

A surface front will remain stationary just to our south at the
start of the period with a baroclinic zone across the boundary. A
vort max will push northward across the region Thursday night and
could spread some overrunning precipitation into eastern Kentucky.
GFS has precipitation possibly reaching as far north as Fleming
county, but other model guidance keeps the better rain chances to
the south. With this in mind, will go with a gradient in pops from
south to north for Thursday night and continue that into Friday.
The boundary will eventually lift north as a warm front late
Friday and Friday night with widespread rain spreading across the
area as the moisture transport increases over the area. Very high
PW`s for this time of year combined with the warm front over the
region will lead to another round of potentially heavy rainfall.
The 00z ECMWF came in very wet for much of the area, with the GFS
not quite as aggressive. Either way, it won`t take much given the
rainfall with the current event to aid in a flooding risk this
weekend. Will highlight the flood potential in the HWO and start
to highlight with web graphics/social media.

A cold front will then cross the area Saturday night. A ribbon of
elevated instability will accompany the front allowing for a
chance for some thunder as the front pushes through. It is
possible, but not likely that a some sfc instability could
develop and if that were to happen, there could be a severe threat
with damaging wind most probable threat. However, still a great
deal of uncertainty with how much surface instability can be
realized. Something we will certainly monitor going forward. We
may actually see an uptick in temperatures Saturday evening ahead
of the front, before temperatures come crashing back down by dawn
on Sunday. Precipitation should be exiting the area by dawn with
much drier air advecting into the region to finish the weekend.
Models still have potential for another shot of rain Tuesday, but
at this time, it looks like a much weaker chance and in fact, 00z
model guidance showed very little over our area. Thus, perhaps a
much needed longer stretch of dry weather could be in store for
next week.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)

We will continue to see periods of moderate to at times heavy
rainfall across the area through late tonight. Conditions at the
TAF sites will vary from VFR to IFR depending on the intensity and
duration of any rain showers or storms that affect the airports
and the presence of any fog. These conditions will likely last
through between 4 and 6Z tonight before beginning to slowly
improve. The rain should be gone from LOZ between 5 and 6Z. We
will continue to use AMD NOT SKED for SME due to missing obs. The
rain should leave the JKL and SYM areas around 5Z this evening,
and SJS between 8 and 10Z Thursday. Winds will gradually shift
from south to southwest and then west as a frontal boundary
passes through the area between 0 and 6Z tonight. Cloud cover will
remain OVC to BKN during most of the period. We should finally see
a period of dry weather from 13Z onward on Thursday.


Flood Watch through Thursday morning for KYZ044-050>052-058>060-



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