Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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FXUS63 KJKL 240952
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
552 AM EDT Wed Apr 24 2019

.UPDATE...
Issued at 552 AM EDT WED APR 24 2019

Current radar shows that showers have largely ended for eastern
Kentucky early this morning. Therefore, updated PoPs and sent a
new ZFP removing wording for early morning showers. Other than
this, merely ingested the latest observations for temperatures,
dew points, and winds and blended them into the early morning
hours. Current temperatures are generally in the mid to upper 50s,
with a few areas in the far east near 60 degrees. Not expecting
much more of a decrease in these temperatures for the next couple
of hours. Therefore, only a slight adjustment was needed to
minimum temperatures. Updates have been sent to the web and to
NDFD.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 420 AM EDT WED APR 24 2019

Current surface analysis shows that the cold front that lead to
showers and a few thunderstorms in the north earlier tonight has
stalled over the Commonwealth. Currently, only a few, isolated
showers remain in the north. Guidance from the Hi-Res models as
well as upstream radar trends show that a lull in precipitation
can be expected this morning as this front weakens further.

A low pressure system over southern Missouri and northern
Arkansas will slowly progress eastward today. Models indicate a
resurgence in shower activity later this evening as the warm front
associated with this low pressure system lifts over the state. A
fair amount of instability will be present for areas north of
Interstate 64 as well, with model soundings showing MUCAPE values
between 1300 and 1500 J/kg this afternoon. Therefore,
thunderstorms will be possible for these areas later this
afternoon and into the early evening.

Chances for showers will overspread eastern Kentucky Thursday
morning and into Thursday afternoon as the cold front then
progresses over Kentucky. An upper level southern stream trough
will combine with a northern stream trough and begin to move over
the southeastern CONUS during this time as well. Thus, with ample
surface and upper level forcing, the better chance for showers
during the short term period will be Thursday afternoon and will
persist into the evening. Thunderstorms will also be possible
during this time due to modest instability, with MUCAPE values
around 1000 to 1300 J/kg. The better chance for thunderstorms will
be in the west where instability is predicted to be greatest at
this time.

Current temperatures across eastern Kentucky are generally in the
lower to upper 50s, with a few spots registering around 60
degrees. Not expecting temperatures to drop much more this
morning, with low temperatures forecasted to be in the upper 50s.
High temperatures today and tomorrow will range from the lower 70s
in the north to the mid to upper 70s in the southeast. Low
temperatures tonight will also be in the 50s, similar to this
morning.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 420 AM EDT WED APR 24 2019

The extended potion of the forecast begins on Thursday night with
a continued active pattern in place across the CONUS. The pattern
begins in the extended with a split flow with respective waves
tracking along the northern and southern streams. On Thursday
night into Friday, models have been pretty consistent on a low
developing over the south along the Gulf with a separate low over
the north crossing the Great Lakes. The combination of these two
waves will be bringing a bout of showers and a few thunderstorms
overnight Thursday night before exiting during the day on Friday.
A brief shortwave ridge will bring a short period of dry weather
for Friday night and into much of Saturday. Once again, models
have agreed here and have showed some consistency. By Saturday
night, a ridge builds in the west allowing a northwest flow to set
up from the northern Plains and into the Midwest. This will bring
another shortwave southeast into the area. Instability is lacking
with this feature but will still expect a quick bout of showers
Saturday night into Sunday. The more dry northwest flow with this
feature will mean that QPF will be lacking here. In fact, amounts
will be less than a tenth at this point. Another bout of dry
weather will follow this system Sunday night and into Monday.

The upper level pattern appears to break down again with little
amplitude heading into Monday and continuing through the rest of
the extended. Mid level ridging develops over the southeast CONUS.
This pattern sets up return flow into the OH and TN Valleys for
Monday through Tuesday night to end the extended. A boundary in
place across Kentucky from the previous ejected wave will set the
stage for the additional convection for Monday night and Tuesday.
As another wave moves east across the Mid MS Valley. Models have
been inconsistent on this feature but some instability certainly
present in return flow will mean plenty of instability available.
Thus will keep thunder in the forecast for Monday night and
showers lasting into Tuesday. Some uncertainty will be present for
Day 6 and 7 as always but temperatures will remain at or above
normal through the period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
ISSUED AT 152 AM EDT WED APR 24 2019

A cold front is slowly progressing to the south over the
Commonwealth tonight. This has led to some rain shower activity in
the far north. Current radar trends and Hi-Res model guidance
suggest the showers will decrease during the overnight hours, with
a lull in precipitation for the morning. A resurgence of shower
activity is then expected later in the day towards the evening.
Have included at least VCSH for all TAF sites this evening;
however, did include -SHRA for SYM since the north will have the
highest potential to see some heavier shower activity during this
time. VFR CIGs will be expected throughout the TAF period, but
there will be some lowering of CIGs to low-end VFR mainly in the
north later this evening as the cold front sags southward over the
state. Winds will generally be light and variable through the
period as well.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...CGAL
SHORT TERM...CGAL
LONG TERM...SHALLENBERGER
AVIATION...CGAL



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