Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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FXUS63 KJKL 111121

National Weather Service Jackson KY
621 AM EST Wed Dec 11 2019

Issued at 621 AM EST WED DEC 11 2019

Clear skies are dominant this morning for most areas, although
some cloud cover remains over far southeast Kentucky where some
shallow moisture has remained. Outside to update for this cloud
cover, no other changes planned.


.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 309 AM EST WED DEC 11 2019

High pressure is building into the region this morning with skies
now clear to mostly clear across the region. Temperatures have
settled back into the 20s for most areas, but we should see a more
a better drop over the next 4 hours as the high pressure center
moves closer to eastern Kentucky. This may allow for a few upper
teens out there in our western zones and across the higher terrain
of southeast Kentucky. With a full day of sunshine expected today,
we should see temperatures rebound to around 40 for most areas.
Areas that received some snow yesterday in far southeast Kentucky
may struggle to get much above freezing with some of the ridgetops
above 2500 feet likely staying sub-freezing today.

A good radiational cooling night is setting up for tonight with
clear skies and light winds. This will allow most valley locations
to dip into the teens, with low to mid 20s on the ridges. Return
flow will kick in on Thursday as the high departs to the east.
This will allow better southerly winds transporting the milder air
back into the region. This should help temperatures climb to
around 50 by the afternoon under mostly sunny skies.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 535 AM EST WED DEC 11 2019

Multiple upper level systems will affect us during the period. The
first couple will be rippling through the southern part of the
flow over the CONUS. The first one arrives Thursday night, riding
over top of a weak warm air advection pattern on the southwest
side of a departing surface high. It will bring a possibility of
some light rain. There is some concern for freezing rain, with
forecast soundings showing warm air over top of surface readings
near freezing. At this point, low temps have been placed midway
through the night, with slight warming before the precip potential
arrives. However, the situation will continue to be watched. The
second wave aloft is a little more significant, and presents its
best shot at rain on Friday night. A third wave originating further
north in the flow follows late Saturday. Each of these waves aloft
has a weak surface reflection. They will tend to consolidate into
an overall stronger eastern CONUS upper trough on Saturday,
leading to significant coastal cyclogenesis occurring from the
mid Atlantic coast to New England. This will aid in sending
colder air south into our area during the weekend. Although
there`s room for improvement, the GFS and ECMWF are in a little
better agreement than 24 hours ago with respect to the
advancement of the cold air mass. Another system early next week
will be driven by a larger scale upper trough deepening as it
moves east across the CONUS. It prompts surface low development
over the southern plains Sunday night, tracking northeast to the
St. Lawrence Valley or New England by Tuesday. The ECMWF and GFS
agree on the overall system, but still have some differences in
the track. That leaves uncertainty for our local forecast
concerning timing, and whether or not some of the precip might
take a wintery form.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning)

VFR conditions and light winds will be seen through the TAF
forecast period.




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