Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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FXUS63 KJKL 132059
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
459 PM EDT Sun Oct 13 2019

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 459 PM EDT SUN OCT 13 2019

The latest surface map features high pressure nosed from the
lower Mississippi Valley to the eastern Ohio Valley. A cold front
is aligned from the eastern Great Lakes down across the Midwest.
Aloft, a deep upper level low is spinning just northwest of Lake
Superior, with cyclonic flow extending south into the Ohio Valley.
Across eastern Kentucky, mostly sunny skies reigned once the
fog/stratus burn off by the late morning hours. Temperatures,
despite the sluggish start, have rebounded into the upper 60s to
lower 70s.

The models are in good agreement through Monday night, with the
upper level low pulling away across southern Canada, with more
flatter flow being seen across the middle and lower Mississippi
Valley. At the surface, the high pressure center will gradually
move from the lower Mississippi Valley to the central
Appalachians. This will keep dry weather in place across eastern
Kentucky.

Tonight will feature another mostly clear and cool night across
the area. Temperatures will drop into the mid and upper 30s in the
valleys, with patchy frost and areas of dense river valley fog
developing once again. Stronger west to west southwest winds
aloft will keep the ridges milder compared to last night, with
lows generally in the lower to middle 40s. Given the frost and
dense fog potential, have highlighted these impacts with a Special
Weather Statement.

The fog and frost should burn off a little faster Monday morning,
with temperatures warming to similar readings to today, generally
around 70 degrees. Monday night will be a bit warmer; however,
could see a few of the northeastern valleys possibly dipping below
40 degrees once again. Most other locations will range from 40 to
45.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 459 PM EDT SUN OCT 13 2019

The models are in decent agreement with an amplified long wave
pattern to start out through the middle of the week, before
becoming flatter into next weekend. Besides some minor timing
differences, even the smaller scale features are in decent
agreement this go around. As such, have relied heavier on the
blended guidance for PoPs, while making more typical terrain
adjustments for the temperatures through the period.

Dry weather will start out on Tuesday, before a passing cold
front brings likely rainfall to the area late Tuesday night into
Wednesday morning. The models continue to advertise more of a
split in the deeper moisture across eastern Kentucky, so this
looks to not put much of a dent in the drought. Another stretch of
dry weather will move from late Wednesday afternoon through at
least Saturday. Another system brings at least a small chance of
rainfall by Sunday. This system looks to bring a better potential
of beefier rainfall totals by early next week, depending on how
things evolve.

For temperatures, stuck fairly close to the blended guidance on
the highs, which will start out above normal initially, before
dipping to below normal for the middle of the week. Temperatures
will then trend to above normal once again for the rest of the
period. Stayed a bit cooler than guidance for the lows, especially
Wednesday night through Friday night, where more of a ridge/valley
split is favored. Have continued to highlight the potential for
frost early Thursday and Friday mornings.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 144 PM EDT SUN OCT 13 2019

VFR conditions and mainly clear skies can be expected through late
tonight. Fog will likely form once again along the deeper river
valleys, as another cool night is expected. The question is, how
extensive will it be and will it encroach on the TAF sites once
again between 06 and 12z. For now, will hold off on any mention,
as we will have experienced another day of drying, and winds just
off of the surface will also be stronger late tonight. Still, the
final crossover temperatures achieved later this afternoon will
also be telling, and if these come in near or higher than the
expected lows, then fog would need to be considered at a few of
the valley sites. Southwest to west southwest winds of 5 to 8
kts, will diminish this evening, before picking up one again by
late Monday morning.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN
LONG TERM...GEOGERIAN
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN



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