Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Elko, NV

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FXUS65 KLKN 301016

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
316 AM PDT Fri Jul 30 2021

.SYNOPSIS...Showers and thunderstorms are expected through the
weekend and some showers could be locally moderate to heavy at
times. A cooling trend will bring high temperatures in the 70`s
and 80`s over the weekend.


.SHORT TERM...Today through Saturday afternoon

The ridge axis that has been over central Nevada has moved
westward over the western US and a strong, much above normal push
of monsoonal moisture continues to make its way into Nevada. This
will allow for widespread shower and thunderstorm coverage to
to expand over the state and continue through the weekend. Storms
will be slow moving with pockets of moderate to heavy showers.
This sets the stage for some possible flash flooding, especially
in central Nevada, where a Flash Flood Watch remains in effect
through Saturday evening, though the possibility exists for
pockets of flooding in northern Nevada as well in heavier cells.
Shower and thunderstorm activity is expected to continue overnight
tonight, though coverage will decrease a little and thunderstorms
will wane some. It remains to be seen whether expected overcast
skies will inhibit convection some on Saturday, though it will
definitely have an effect on high temperatures, as highs in the
mid 80`s to lower 90`s today drop into the mid 70`s to lower 80`s
on Saturday. Winds remain light outside of thunderstorms.

.LONG TERM...Saturday night through next Thursday...
The combination of deep layered moisture in southerly flow on
Sunday and an embedded disturbance aloft means another day of
numerous wetting rains with locally heavy showers. Given the
anomalously high precipitable water content over the Great Basin,
particularly the eastern half, flash flooding likely remains a

Monday will be a transition day as energy ejecting northeast from
a offshore trough changes the winds aloft to southwest. This
pushes the monsoonal plume eastward, but air mass stays moist and
unstable over eastern Nevada. Thunderstorms coverage will be less
numerous west of Elko and Ely.

Tuesday and thereafter, air mass turns drier with isolated
afternoon thunderstorms limited to the northeast Nevada corner.
With more sunshine, afternoon temperatures rebound to a few
degrees above average.


.AVIATION...Showers and thunderstorms are once again expected
this afternoon with a majority of the activity beginning closer to
our eastern sites of KELY and KEKO before becoming more
widespread and numerous as we get into the evening. Smoke and haze
still lingers across northern sites, but any impacts are expected
to be minimal.


.FIRE WEATHER...The main message is that a very moist airmass will
move into the area for today through Sunday. This will expand the
areal coverage of showers and thunderstorms to many locations
with a higher chance of wetting rains being seen in the area. The
fly in the ointment is the amount of cloud cover and
destabilization of the atmosphere. If cloud cover remains high,
there is less of a potential for the forecast precipitation
amounts. Suffice to say, the wet storms will limit the risk of new
starts. In addition, there will be sufficient moisture that
moderate to locally heavy rain will be possible and that could
lead to localized flash flooding.


Flash Flood Watch from noon PDT today through Saturday evening
for Northeastern Nye County-Northwestern Nye County-Southern
Lander County and Southern Eureka County-White Pine County.



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