Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Elko, NV

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FXUS65 KLKN 211028

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
328 AM PDT Sun Apr 21 2019

.SYNOPSIS...Showers continue across much of northeastern and
central NV today, which will then be limited to just east-central
NV on Monday. Gusty northerly winds on Monday, strongest across
central NV. Temperatures will trend warmer next week, with most
valley locations in the low 70s by Tuesday, then upper 70s to
possibly low 80s on Thursday.


.SHORT TERM...Today through Tuesday. Lingering shower activity
across much of the eastern 2/3s of the CWA today, however best
chances for moderate rainfall will be over eastern-most portions
of NV, generally east of the Ruby Mountains and the city of
Eureka. Isolated thunderstorms mainly confined to east-central NV
this afternoon. Trough energy exits to the southeast tonight into
Monday with showers gradually diminishing from NW to SE by Monday
afternoon. Gusty northerly winds are expected Monday afternoon
across much of central NV, with the potential for winds reaching
into the lower end of wind advisory criteria for portions of Nye
County. For now no headline as not all models are in agreement
with wind speeds yet. Dry across the CWA on Tuesday with warmer
air pushing in from the west-southwest. At this time expecting
most valley locations to reach up into the low to possibly mid 70s
Tuesday afternoon.

.LONG TERM...Tuesday night through next Sunday.

Quiet and warm conditions under a building ridge are expected
Wednesday and Thursday. Afternoon isolated showers and possible
thunderstorms could develop Thursday as mid-level moisture
increases along with increasingly unstable conditions within a
broad southwest flow ahead of the next Pacific trough. The trough
and axis and attendant cold front should push through the region
Friday bringing additional convective activity to the state.
Models show a mainly zonal pattern but differ in lingering
moisture content available for afternoon isolated showers and
thunderstorms. Precipitation is not expected to be widespread
with this next weather system. Highs through Thursday will be in
70s, perhaps hitting the 80 degree mark in quite a few valleys
across the area Thursday. Overnight lows will be above freezing in
most locations through at least Friday morning before cooler
temperatures arrive for the weekend.


.AVIATION...Showery weather will continue as low pressure tracks
southeastward across Nevada on this Easter Sunday. VCSH will
remain possible through late morning at KWMC and KBAM while
scattered showers will persist through the day into the evening at
KEKO, KELY, and KTPH. Less instability today than on Saturday
afternoon so did not include any thunder in the TAFs though cannot
not rule out a slight chance of an isolated storm developing
along and south of US-50 in the afternoon. Windiest conditions
will occur at KTPH where northwest to north winds will gust to
around 35 kts during the afternoon and early evening. Elsewhere,
gusts are not expected exceed much more than 20 to 25 kts. Showers
are expected to linger over far eastern Nevada into Monday
morning including KELY. Although it will remain breezy, drier
air will overspread the state with clearing skies from northwest
to southeast on Monday.


.HYDROLOGY...Cooler temperatures today will lead to less snow
melt than recent days, however more rain is expected across
portions of northeastern and central NV. Showers diminish tonight
into Monday across the region.

Temperatures will trend warmer starting on Monday, with most
valley locations in the 70s Tuesday through next weekend which
will result in increased melting of mid-level mountain snowpack.





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