Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Elko, NV

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FXUS65 KLKN 231017

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
217 AM PST Sat Feb 23 2019

.SYNOPSIS...After a quite chilly start this morning, temperatures
will gradually moderate this weekend through the middle of next
week. An offshore system will bring some showers to northern
Nevada early next week with dry conditions continuing across the
central portion of Nevada.


.SHORT TERM...Today through Monday. Very quiet again this morning.
Temperatures are running a little colder than Friday morning. With
high pressure expanded over the eastern Pacific and a low pressure
trough over Canada, there is some cloudiness moving over Nevada
under dry conditions. Clouds are not helping to warm things up but
this should be the coldest morning before the regime changes. A
warming trend will begin today which will open up the possibility
for some fog issues in the coming days as the snow begins to
saturate the surface environment. Issued wind chill advisory for
White Pine County at midnight with KELY hitting -23. Could go as
low as -30. KELY did not go southerly drainage Friday morning but
did this morning. Current wind chill is -25 below zero with a
real temperature of -7 and a 14kt wind speed. Model agreement is
pretty good through Monday.

A low pressure trough will be stretching across Canada and
Washington state. A very moist flow off the Pacific will flow
through Oregon and Idaho. On the south side of the main stream of
moist air, showers are expected to mainly affect areas north of
Interstate 80. With the flow aloft more westerly, this could be a
mix of rain and snow in the valleys as precipitation chances
increase as time goes on. Daytime temperature will be a little on
the cool side today but will exceed freezing in many spots Sunday
and Monday. No major impacts are expected during this time
however fog may become an issue in the mornings due to saturation
at low levels. High temperatures will range from the mid 20s to
the mid 30s today, mid 30s to mid 40s Sunday, then range from the
mid 40s to around 50 degrees Monday. Low temperatures will be in
the teens and 20s tonight, then range from the 20s to around 30
degrees Sunday night.

.LONG TERM...Monday night through next Friday. Nearly stationary
upper level low settling in off the Pacific NW coast Monday night
through Wednesday results in periods of clouds across of western
and northern NV along with at least a slight chance of slight
precipitation. Should begin to see some lower elevation snowmelt
most of next week as temperatures rise up to or slightly above
normal levels. This may also result in some morning fog as more
moisture gets released into the low levels. Increased model
uncertainties Thursday onward as models struggle to handle the
timing of the Pacific NW trough breakdown and eastward ejection.


.AVIATION...VFR conditions are expected to prevail at all TAF
sites through this evening. A weak weather system will produce a
few snow showers with VCSH and en route pockets of MVFR CIGS/VIS
mainly across northern Nevada at KWMC, KBAM, and KEKO later
tonight into early Sunday morning.


Wind Chill Advisory until 8 AM PST this morning for White Pine



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