Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KLUB 191946
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
246 PM CDT Sat Oct 19 2019

.DISCUSSION...
A weak trough passed by last night pushing through a cold front
which brought us cooler temperatures and crystal blue skies today. A
trough deepening out of Pac-NW today will swing into the northern
Central Plains tomorrow. The GFS is a bit faster than other
solutions but in the long run in regards to the Sunday evening cold
front, it may only make a difference of a hour or two on passage
time for our forecast area (during the evening hours of Sunday). The
stronger winds earlier forecast for our northwestern zones may end
up being slightly less strong as the onset of the westerly winds is
expected to be a few hours later in the day, and at the surface, a
better gradient actually sets up over the southeastern third of the
forecast area. With this front, we`ll get two days of cool weather
as upper flow stays northwesterly, but by Wednesday, flow settles
out as the parent low moves well into Ontario...giving us a warmer
day.

Our late week front has a few moving parts to it. The aforementioned
parent low will continue to trek northward through Ontario.
Meanwhile, an upper low developing out of the Bering Sea and moving
into southern Alaska will be blocked by a strengthening high slowly
advancing up the West Coast. Flow will be squeezed between the upper
Alaskan low and the West Coast high well into Canada before being
directed back south into Texas by Thursday morning. A few
particulars remain in limbo, such as how cold will the air be, will
we get precipitation and will said precipitation be of the frozen
variety. The GFS has a solution that dumps the ensuing trough
further west, giving us the cold air and possible frozen precip.
Other long-term models go further east, directing the coldest air
into OK and northeast TX, along with the precip. Either way, it does
appear we will get colder at the end of the week, we just have some
details to iron out of the next few days.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

74/99


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