Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KLUB 211118

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
518 AM CST Thu Feb 21 2019

Modest surface low pressure trough will remain just west of TAF
sites through the next 24 hours with continued south to southeast
low level flow. Moistening expected by this time tomorrow morning
leading to areas of low clouds. Attempted first stab introducing
MVFR level clouds early tomorrow morning. Certainly later
forecasts can hone in better on timing and height, as well as if
any visibility restrictions may occur but this again is still
about 21+ hours out. Otherwise VFR until then with high clouds
expected to thin a bit later today. RMcQueen


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 316 AM CST Thu Feb 21 2019/

Today southerly surface flow will continue our warming trend under
fair skies.

Over the next 48 hours our weather will change as a broad upper
level trough moves towards the FA. The trough, currently covering
much of the western US, will slowly be driven eastward with help
from a 100 kt jet just to the west of the trough. As the trough
slowly moves east and deepens Pacific/Gulf of California moisture
will flow over the region at the mid and upper levels while
southerly surface flow will allow warm moisture advection from the
Gulf of Mexico to occur at the lower levels. The trough axis is
PROGGED to reach the western zones late Friday night. Simultaneously
a Pacific front will also reach the western zones. As the deep upper
low approaches the South Plains isentropic lifting will occur
creating area wide rain chances late Friday into Saturday. Modest
instability across much of the Rolling Plains means that a rumble of
thunder could be possible.

As this quick hitting upper level system exits the area Saturday
morning the upper low and surface low will deepen further and strong
pressure gradients will develop. As a result strong, advisory level,
westerly winds will occur. The strongest winds will start around 18z
Saturday and then slowly taper off as the day progresses. Elevated
fire weather continues to be a possibility Saturday afternoon.
Although the passage of the Pacific front and the timing of the
strongest winds should help keep critical fire weather concerns at
bay Saturday afternoon.

By Sunday, zonal flow kicks in and continues for the foreseeable




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