Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KLUB 252016

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
316 PM CDT Thu Apr 25 2019

Cold front now fully south of the area with breezy northerly winds
becoming lighter easterly overnight, then increasing southerly
flow expected Friday. Weak showers or thunder trying to emerge off
the Sangre De Cristo to our west will have difficulty trekking
through this regime while leaving favorable upslope and weak
instability behind. Still, we retained sprinkles in our northwest
late tonight as northwest flow often over produces. Another
attempt to convect Friday afternoon, this time moving more due
east into slightly warmer but better low level convergence and a
little improved low level moisture may approach the New Mexico-
Texas border again, and we have small thunder chances tomorrow
night for this possibility.

Saturday will see an approaching low amplitude upper level ridge
axis and a very warm airmass in advance of a back door cold front
that now looks a little delayed from previous runs, not passing
most areas on the Caprock until late Saturday. So a warm overall
day is expected with breezy conditions with deeply mixed
environment. The front sagging through the Rolling Plains may
encounter dry-line/surface trough as well and could lead to
A few strong thunderstorms mainly central Rolling Plains but this
is a conditional situation so only indicating low thunder chances
for now.

Pattern changes to southwest flow aloft next week. A well-defined
upper low moving across the Mojave Desert late Monday will likely
open some and eject to our north. But flow aloft likely will
contain additional waves during the week. A frontal boundary
arriving Monday looks like it will wash in and out throughout the
week providing a favorable zone for thunder chances to develop
along or near with each passing wave. Solutions appear to indicate
increasing thunder chances but differ on precise timing and
locations. We have continued general low thunder chances next
week, with highest probabilities currently late Monday timed with
initial ejecting wave. Pattern and season both favor continuing
mention of severe thunderstorm chances in the Hazardous Weather
Outlook. RMcQueen




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