Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KLUB 301115

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
615 AM CDT Fri Jul 30 2021

VFR prevails for the TAF period. Check density altitude.



.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 204 AM CDT Fri Jul 30 2021/

Mid/upper-level ridging will continue to overspread the CWA today
with generally hot and benign weather expected. Fairly deep mixing
up to around 3-km AGL should occur by peak heating as temperatures
rise into the lower 90s and upper 90s across the Caprock and Rolling
Plains, respectively. Increasing subsidence above the boundary-layer
should suppress cu development across most of the CWA today, though
have maintained a small area of 10% PoPs across the far southwestern
South Plains where weak, low-level convergence near the diffuse
surface trough beneath a subtle impulse rotating overhead may result
in isolated single cells. Otherwise, winds shift to the southeast at
around 5-15 mph as the anticyclone aloft intensifies with dry and
hot weather elsewhere.


This weekend, an upper level ridge will amplify over the
Rockies/Intermountain West with a trough deepening over the eastern
CONUS. Cooler and wetter conditions will emerge from this pattern
beginning on Sunday through at least the middle of next week. An
initial cold front from the eastern US trough will move through
sometime on Sunday. Low level easterly to southeasterly flow for the
first half of next week will certainly favor monsoonal type
convection along the lee side of the Rockies along with nighttime
northwest flow convection. Precipitable water value will creep
upward this weekend bringing increasingly favorable conditions for
heavy rain with any storms that do occur next week. The
aforementioned front will stall out early next week, however, the
exact position of the front and any increased precipitation chances
from it are highly uncertain at these time scales. Cooler than
seasonal average temperatures will be likely for most of next week
with more uncertainty on precipitation chances which is common for
these patterns this far out in the forecast. Furthermore, analog
guidance has locked on to cooler and wetter weather for next week.




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