Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KLUB 171947
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
247 PM CDT Sat Aug 17 2019

.DISCUSSION...
As with yesterday a few outflow boundaries remain which could aid
in convective development later this afternoon and evening as
weak upper lift pushes into the FA from NM. This lift has already
begun to aid in thunderstorm development over the higher terrain
of central NM. The Rolling Plains are favored for development
later today where surface dewpoints are higher. Most storms should
stay sub-severe, however some storms may be capable of producing
severe wind gusts over 60 mph. Due to the history of storms
producing strong wind gusts and lightning that has sparked several
wildfires, the current Red Flag warning will be continued through
late this evening.

The upper ridge will continue to build tomorrow into Monday which
will in turn allow temps to continue to warm. Models continue to
differ on handling of the upper ridge. The ECMWF and GFS both
"split" the ridge, but the GFS is more aggressive with splitting
it in turn creating a weakness in the center of the ridge. The
ECMWF keeps the upper ridge more in tact. Given the lack of
uncertainty precip chances have been lowered slightly to slight
chance. Models mostly come back into agreement beyond Tuesday by
moving the upper high slightly westward over AZ/NM giving west
Texas a slight relief from heat. While organized thunderstorms are
not expected mid to late week, the possibility for general
thunderstorms cannot be ruled out.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A Red Flag Warning remains in effect from this afternoon through
late evening across the Rolling Plains. Recent days have seen a
number of fire starts likely connected to the dry lightning and
with Energy Release Components over the 90th percentile and
approaching historic highs for mid August. Grasses have dried
significantly and with the lightning also has come outflow gusts.
We expect another day with isolated to scattered high-based
lightning storms this afternoon and evening. Moisture levels are
reasonably high, and some locations will certainly see heavy
downpours. But areas near the fringe of the heavy rain will not
get much benefit from the rain and still have exposure to
lightning. Thus, potential for more starts and also potential to
fan existing fires.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning until midnight CDT tonight for TXZ024>026-
030>032-036>038-042>044.

&&

$$

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