Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN

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FXUS64 KMEG 161727

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1127 AM CST Sat Feb 16 2019

.UPDATE...Aviation discussion.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1012 AM CST Sat Feb 16 2019/

Skies remain mostly cloudy across the forecast area this morning
with temperatures ranging from the upper 20s to around 40 degrees.
Temperatures have been slow to warm this morning so have adjusted
forecasted highs down a few degrees across the entire forecast


PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 329 AM CST Sat Feb 16 2019/

DISCUSSION...Surface analysis this morning places a cold front
over Northern Alabama, Central Mississippi, Northern Louisiana,
and into Southern Texas. Regional WSR-88D radar trends indicate
precipitation has come to an end as a mid-level shortwave trough
has pushed east into Middle and East Tennessee. As of 3 AM CST,
temperatures across the Mid-South range from the upper 20s to
lower 30s north of I-40, and 30s to lower 40s south with the
warmest temperatures near Central Mississippi.

Weak high pressure will build into the forecast area today. Short
term model soundings indicate some residual low level moisture may
become trapped below a subsidence inversion. This may result in
clouds hanging around the area for much of the day. High
temperatures will range from the upper 30s to lower 40s north of
I-40, and middle 40s to lower 50s south with the warmest
temperatures across Northeast Mississippi.

Short term models indicate chances for rain will return to the
Mid-South as the aforementioned cold front returns back north as a
warm front late tonight with the best chances for rain occurring
overnight. Rain chances are expected to continue into Sunday as a
surface low moves across the Lower Mississippi Valley. High
pressure will build in behind the surface low with rain chances
decreasing Sunday afternoon into Sunday evening. Rain free weather
is expected for Washington`s Birthday.

00Z long term models indicate southwest flow aloft will remain
across the Southern Plains, Lower Mississippi and Tennessee
Valleys next week. This is expected to result in continued rain
chances for Monday night into the following weekend. Total rainfall
amounts for the next 7 days has the potential to average between
3-6 inches across portions of West Tennessee and North Mississippi
with the highest amounts near the Tennessee River Valley. This
will continue to be monitored in subsequent forecasts as some
thunderstorms may be possible mainly from the middle of next week
into the following weekend.



.AVIATION...18z TAF Cycle

Variable conditions are expected over the next 24 to 30 hours.
MVFR to IFR cigs should gradually improve today, possibly even to
VFR levels, but diminish again quickly this evening as another
disturbance approaches the Midsouth. IFR or LIFR cigs and vis is
expected late tonight. Light rain mad develop into mostly drizzle
by morning. Some improvement is possible at JBR before 18Z and
before 17/24Z at MEG, MKL and TUP will likely remain IFR or




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