Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN

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FXUS64 KMEG 270458
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1158 PM CDT Mon Jul 26 2021

.UPDATE...

Updated for the 06Z Aviation Discussion

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 826 PM CDT Mon Jul 26 2021/

UPDATE...
Made a few adjustments to the forecast this evening. Have held on
to some slight rain chances through a part of the night as a few
isolated showers are still possible throughout the evening hours.
Also have added fog into the forecast overnight as the atmosphere
remains very moist. This could lead to some fog development
especially where rain has fallen this afternoon and evening. More
hot days are expected throughout the week and especially into the
weekend. A Heat Advisory has been issued for portions of the area
for Tuesday. Expect more advisories to be issued this week...and
especially this weekend. Afternoon showers and storms will be
possible Tuesday afternoon but coverage will be limited and should
be more focused to the southern portions of the forecast area.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 623 PM CDT Mon Jul 26 2021/

DISCUSSION...

Yet again another HOT afternoon for the Mid-South with current
temperatures in the upper 80s to near 90. Showers and
thunderstorms will continue through this evening as a boundary
continues to push through the area. Showers will remain below
severe limits, but localized flooding may be an issue. We should
get a break overnight from these showers allowing fog to form over
the area. Lows tonight will be in the mid 70s.

Expect another round of showers to develop over the area
tomorrow. Temperatures will yet again be high. Highs will be in
the lower 90s with dewpoint temperatures in the upper 70s. Another
Heat Advisory is out for tomorrow for portions of the Mid-South

Through the extended forecast high pressure over the Plains will
work it`s way eastward. This will unfortunately raise temperatures
through out the week. Convection should be limited throughout the
week with the potential for a stray shower or two. Any
development will be short lived.

In regards to temperatures, expect a slow warming trend with
humidity levels rising. Highs will begin to approach the upper 90s
by the end of the week. Friday looks to be our hottest day with
highs in the upper 90s and dewpoints in the mid 70s. There`s
definitely a possibility we could see Heat Advisories multiple
times this week.

By the weekend temperatures will cool just a bit to the low 90s.
Not a dramatic cool down but we`ll take any relief we can get. A
shortwave will move through the upper level flow allowing more
showers to move into the area.

SWB

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF cycle

VFR conditions will continue for most of the forecast period. Some
areas of fog is expected to develop overnight mainly over eastern
sections of the Mid-South. Some scattered thunderstorms are
expected to develop Tuesday afternoon mainly over north
Mississippi. Winds will be mainly from the east at around 5 knots
for much of the forecast period.

ARS

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 7 PM CDT Tuesday for Craighead-
     Crittenden-Cross-Lee AR-Mississippi-Phillips-Poinsett-St.
     Francis.

MO...None.
MS...Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 7 PM CDT Tuesday for Coahoma-DeSoto-
     Panola-Quitman-Tallahatchie-Tate-Tunica-Yalobusha.

TN...Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 7 PM CDT Tuesday for Lauderdale-
     Shelby-Tipton.

&&

$$


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