Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN

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FXUS64 KMEG 191458

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
958 AM CDT Thu Sep 19 2019

Updated for morning cloud cover and afternoon rain chances.



Satellite showing plume of boundary layer moisture surging
northwest into northeast Mississippi this hour. This cloud cover
should amount to a partly sunny sky for the region by noon. So
adjusted morning cloud cover accordingly. In addition CAM`s
showing pop- up showers developing across west Tennessee as far
north as Jackson and possibly Dyersburg before sunset. So decided
to add a slight chance of rain in that region...though the best
signature for measurable precipitation will still lie south of
I-40 and west of I-55.



.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 632 AM CDT Thu Sep 19 2019/

Updated for 12Z Aviation Forecast Discussion below.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 447 AM CDT Thu Sep 19 2019/

DISCUSSION...GOES-16 Satellite trends early this morning place
the remnants of Tropical Depression Imelda near Houston. A few
bands of mid/high level clouds are spreading across portions of
East Arkansas south of I-40 and across North Mississippi producing
partly cloudy skies. Otherwise, clear to mostly clear skies
prevail elsewhere. As of 4 AM CDT, temperatures across the Mid
South range from the middle 60s to lower 70s.

Short term models including Convective Allowing Model (CAM)
solutions indicate the remnants of Tropical Depression Imelda
will begin to move towards Shreveport/Texarkana by this evening
and across Arkansas on Friday. Mainly rain free conditions are
expected across much of the area with isolated/scattered shower
and thunderstorm chances occurring mainly during peak heating
during mid/late this afternoon. High temperatures today will
remain well above normal with highs mainly in the lower to middle

A modest increase in shower and thunderstorm chances will occur
on Friday with the best chances remaining mostly west of the
Mississippi River. Increased cloud cover is expected to result in
highs only reaching the middle to upper 80s Friday afternoon.

Long term models continue to indicate the upper level ridge
temporarily strengthening on Saturday with isolated shower and
thunderstorm chances remaining mainly across extreme Northeast
Arkansas during the morning and chances remaining too low in the
afternoon to justify mention in the forecast.

Better chances for showers and thunderstorms should arrive for
Sunday night into Monday as the upper level ridge axis weakens
across the region. Unfortunately, model run to run consistency
remains a challenge beyond Monday as near zonal to slightly
northwest flow aloft presents a challenge to models trying to
resolve this pattern change. The operational GFS and Canadian are
leaning towards increased convective chances while the ECMWF
remains relatively rain free. Consequently, I`ve leaned towards
isolated chances at best for the remainder of the forecast next
week until models come into better agreement. Nonetheless,
temperatures are expected to still be somewhat above normal but
more tolerable than the past week.



12Z TAFs

VFR to prevail today as winds winds veer to the SSE in response
to Tropical Depression Imelda over the Arklatex. Isolated
SHRA/TSRA expected after 20Z over the delta, a few of which could
make it to the MEM TRACON late this afternoon.




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