Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN

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FXUS64 KMEG 221958

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
258 PM CDT Mon Jul 22 2019

Surface cold front had dropped to the I-40 corridor of west TN at
2 PM CDT / 19Z. Storms were an hour or two ahead of convection-
allowing model (CAM) consensus from earlier today. GOES East
visible imagery indicted an elongated shear axis, parallel to and
on the cold side of the surface front. Expect this feature to aid
in scattered post-frontal shower and thunderstorm development into
the evening. On the whole, expect the system remain progressive.
GOES East multi-layer water imagery indicated strong deep layer
subsidence over MO, which will spread over the Midsouth late
tonight. Late evening and overnight rain chances may need additional

Following several weeks of warm and very humid conditions, drier
midcontinental air will prevail over all the Midsouth on Tuesday.
Low level return flow from the gulf will likely not commence to
any great degree until the weekend. In the interim, given the
above normal greenness and full sunshine, expect evapotranspiration
to gradually drive surface dewpoints to the upper 60s by Friday -
still about 10 degrees cooler than dewpoints over the last several
weeks. Once return flow is established, weekend dewpoints will
return to the 70s.

With the return of gulf humidity, isolated storms will be
possible by the weekend. The 12Z GFS appeared to be exhibiting
its warm season nocturnal wet bias. Given the weak deep layer shear,
expect weekend and early next week rain chances to be confined to
the heat of the day.



18Z TAF cycle

A rare midsummer cold front has moved through JBR. Current timing
should take it through MEM and MKL well before sunset and through
TUP around sunset. Winds ahead of the front are from the
Southwest 8-10kt, and from the North 8-10kt behind the front. A
line of thunderstorms will likely accompany the front ar MEM and
MKL. Added a 3hr tempo group for 3sm VIS and MVFR cigs accordingly.
On station thunderstorms look slightly less likely at TUP. Cigs
may lower to MVFR or IFR levels briefly overnight with VFR cigs
returning to MEM, JBR and MKL late tonight or early tomorrow. Wind
tomorrow will be from the North to Northeast 10-14kt.




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