Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL

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FXUS62 KMFL 232359 AAB
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Miami FL
759 PM EDT Tue Apr 23 2019

.AVIATION...
The winds will remain easterly at 5 to 10 knots tonight before
increasing to 10 to 15 knots on Wednesday. The only exception is
at KAPF taf site where the winds will be westerly early this
evening and then westerly after 17Z Wednesday. The ceiling and vis
will remain in VFR conditions with dry weather.

&&
AVIATION...54/BNB


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 717 PM EDT Tue Apr 23 2019/

UPDATE...
Forecast remains on track this evening with great spring
weather continuing through the evening and overnight. Dry
conditions with just a few clouds expected, with the east
northeast flow keeping temps a degree or two below normal.
Otherwise, no changes to the ongoing forecast.

&&


PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 341 PM EDT Tue Apr 23 2019/

DISCUSSION...
High pressure and mid-upper level ridging, once again, dominated
South Florida`s weather pattern today and will continue to do so
for the next couple of days. Widespread sunshine and near normal
temperatures prevailed across the region, with some values 1 to 2
degrees below normal, especially for Miami, Fort Lauderdale, and
West Palm Beach. For tonight, low temperatures look to drop into
the mid to upper 60s across the region, which is near normal for
this time of year. At or just below normal high temperatures are
forecast to continue across the region for the next day or so.

Through Thursday, a dry airmass will keep rain chances out of the
forecast. MFL`s 23/12Z sounding had a PW of 0.69 inches, which is
below the 25th percentile for this time of year. Forecast derived
PW`s are expected to stick around through week`s end. In concerns
to wind, flow will be northeasterly to easterly off the Atlantic
and sea breezes will be developing along both coast in the
afternoon. Again, no precipitation is expected, just some cumulus
clouds here and there.

Friday into the weekend is where things get spicy. Initial SE
winds will gradually veer more southwesterly through the day as a
cold front approaches the peninsula. Shower and thunderstorm
chances will be on the increase throughout the course of the day
as well, and will continue over the weekend. Biggest forecast
concern is how far/how fast this front pushes into the region (if
at all). At the present moment, both GFS and ECMWF have the
frontal boundary stalling to the north of the CWA, but the
dynamics between an upper level trough moving across NE CONUS and
a surface low developing over the northern Gulf will certainly
need to be monitored. What is known is that as the boundary
lingers across the region, rain chances and an unsettled weather
pattern will continue for the weekend.

By the early part of next week, high pressure builds back in
across the region, though residual moisture combined with daytime
heating will support some showers and perhaps a thunderstorm or
two.

MARINE...
Generally favorable boating conditions continue across
the South Florida waters through week`s end along with dry and
benign weather. High pressure will bring light to moderate east winds,
along with seas 2 feet or less in the Gulf and 2 to 3 feet in the
Atlantic. Winds are forecast to veer more southeasterly Thursday.
Rain and thunderstorm chances begin to increase Friday and
continue through the weekend.

AVIATION...
Across the South Florida TAF sites through the period, VFR
conditions are expected to prevail. Few to scattered cloud
coverage, with cloud bases around 4.0-4.5 kft, is expected.
Generally east-northeast to east winds at 6-13 kt are expected
through late afternoon today, and again starting Wednesday
morning. Also this afternoon, a sea-breeze boundary may move
inland over the Gulf Coast region temporarily bringing southwest
to west winds around 10 kt at KAPF for this afternoon.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
West Palm Beach  82  66  81  68 /   0  10  10  10
Fort Lauderdale  81  68  81  71 /   0  10   0   0
Miami            82  67  81  69 /   0  10   0   0
Naples           84  65  83  67 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

UPDATE...13
DISCUSSION...03/Fell
MARINE...03/Fell
AVIATION...54/BNB






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