Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL

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FXUS62 KMFL 161727
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
1227 PM EST Sat Feb 16 2019

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions will prevail throughout the forecast period.
Southwesterly winds around 10 knots this afternoon will diminish
as the evening progresses. There could be some patchy fog
development at KAPF late tonight into early Sunday morning. The
winds will then increase again out of the south southeast late on
Sunday morning to near 10 knots across all terminals.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1017 AM EST Sat Feb 16 2019/

UPDATE...
No changes needed to be made to the previous forecast as
everything looks on track. An area of high pressure located in
the western Atlantic will continue to dominate the weather pattern
across South Florida today. Winds will start to increase out of
the south southwest as the day progresses. High temperatures will
remain on the warm side today as they will range from around 80
along the east coast to the lower 80s across the interior
sections. Winds across the region will diminish this evening and
patchy fog is possible across the interior sections late tonight
into early Sunday morning.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 626 AM EST Sat Feb 16 2019/

AVIATION...
VFR conditions will prevail throughout the forecast period. There
could be some periods of MVFR at KAPF early this morning with
patchy fog in the area. Winds will increase out of the southwest
to near 10 knots by the middle of Saturday morning. These winds
will then diminish on Saturday evening.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 324 AM EST Sat Feb 16 2019/

DISCUSSION...
Weak low pressure riding along a front and getting ready to eject
off the Carolina coast will force surface high pressure down the
peninsula throughout the day today keeping conditions high and
dry. Radar is showing a few Atlantic showers popping up early this
morning, but otherwise, widespread sunshine all day long with a
few clouds here and there. With light low level flow veering
S/SW, fog will be possible this morning, especially across the
interior and Gulf coast, though it is expected to be patchy and
lift after sunrise if any were to develop. This favorable pattern
for fog development looks to occur again Sunday morning, with Hi-
Res models (HRRR/SREF) being rather bullish, so wouldn`t be
surprised to see dense fog then. For the time being, added patchy
fog to the grids for both early this morning and tomorrow morning.
Temps today will climb into the low 80s across the region, running
about 3-6 degrees above seasonal norms, with even further warming
into tomorrow.

For much of next week, upper level ridging will remain centered a
pinch to the south and east across the Central Bahamas, ultimately
continuing to block significant southward advancement of any
frontal boundaries beyond central Florida. On the surface, high
pressure will remain in the near vicinity of the region, shifting
winds back to the S/SE. This wind shift will gradually increase
low-level moisture across the area. This in combination with
relatively light flow will provoke the possibility for sea breezes
to develop, and thus, a chance for rain showers.

With South Florida essentially being piloted by high pressure for
the rest of the forecast period, predominantly southerly wind
flow will keep temperatures well above normal with some portions
of the western interior climbing into the upper 80s. Values
should generally remain below record, but Naples may be in
jeopardy a few days. Overnight fog will also likely remain a
concern.

MARINE...
High pressure will briefly be suppressed south of the
region for the weekend, bringing a few days of moderate south-
southwesterly flow. Expect the ridge to build back to the north
for early next week, bringing S/SE flow around 10 kt, potentially
15-20 kt at times into mid week. Seas look to remain relatively
calm at 2 feet or less, with occasional 3 feet in the Atlantic and
offshore Gulf.

AVIATION...
VFR expected to prevail during the next 24 hours, except APF where
periods of MVFR vis may develop in patchy fog 09Z-14Z. Light and
variable winds will turn SW around 10kt this afternoon, then
again light and variable tonight.

BEACH FORECAST...
The rip current risk will diminish as the wind lightens over the
next couple of days.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
West Palm Beach  65  83  70  84 /   0   0  10  20
Fort Lauderdale  68  83  74  84 /   0   0  10  20
Miami            68  84  73  84 /   0   0  10  10
Naples           66  83  69  83 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

AVIATION...55/CWC






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