Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Medford, OR

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FXUS66 KMFR 160954

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
254 AM PDT Tue Jul 16 2019

.DISCUSSION...The upper level trough currently over the Pacific
Northwest will pass to the east tonight, but before departing, it
will provide ample cloud cover and slightly below normal
temperatures today. Continuing onshore flow is producing areas of
drizzle this morning along the coast and into the Umpqua Basin.
More drizzle and even some scattered showers are possible in
these same areas through this afternoon, but amounts should be
light if measurable at all.

As the trough exits the region, a second trough currently
residing over southern Alaska will dig southeast, dropping into
southern British Columbia by Wednesday night. This trough will
have a hard time digging any farther south than that due to a
strong ridge over the southern United States. As a result, the
upper level flow will become flat and somewhat zonal over the
region as it is squeezed between the two conflicting features.
This will keep lower heights and slightly cooler than normal
temperatures in place for several more days. Guidance does depict
a weak cold front pushing through the area, with the support of a
weak shortwave aloft, but other than increase clouds and breezes,
and another round of showers and drizzle along the coast and into
the Umpqua Basin, there will be little to mark its passage.

Ridging will return this weekend and early next week, extending
north and west from a strong high over the Four Corners. This
pattern will allow for a strengthening thermal trough, warmer
temperatures, and no precipitation of thunderstorms expected for
the remainder of the forecast term. Daily highs will rise to near
or slightly above normal over the weekend and into early next
week, with daily rounds of afternoon marine pushes and overnight
east winds,. We should also see a day or two of the Chetco Effect
along the south coast near Brookings. Inland, the warmest day
should be Sunday or Monday, and a few of our more warmer spots may
approach triple digit highs one or both days. -BPN


.AVIATION...For the 16/12Z TAFS...Along the coast and over the
coastal waters...Areas of MVFR/IFR cigs/vsbys will persist into
Tuesday morning, then clear to VFR.  The lower conditions will
redevelop Tuesday evening, persisting into Wednesday morning. Over
the remainder of the area, VFR conditions will prevail through
Wednesday morning. -Spilde


.MARINE...Updated 230 AM PDT Tuesday 16 July 2019...A thermal trough
will develop near the coast today, weaken Wednesday then strengthen
Thursday into Friday. Conditions will be hazardous to small craft
due to north winds and steep, choppy seas from Gold Beach southward
this afternoon into Wednesday morning. Advisory conditions will
likely return over a broader portion of the waters Thursday
afternoon into Friday evening, with gales and very steep, hazardous
seas possible south of Gold Beach. -Spilde




Pacific Coastal Waters...Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 8 AM PDT
     Wednesday for PZZ356-376.

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