Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Medford, OR

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FXUS66 KMFR 161719
AFDMFR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
919 AM PST Sat Feb 16 2019

.DISCUSSION...An update to the forecast is not necessary. Showers
and snow showers with a snow level around 1500 to 1800 feet will
continue with widespread coverage (especially on west and
southwest facing slopes) through this morning. Coverage/frequency
of showers/snow showers will then diminish just slightly and
persist into early Sunday morning. The snow level will bump up
slightly, by around a couple hundred feet, with the heating of the
day. New snow today will be generally up to an inch except up to 4
inches in the southern Oregon Cascades. Snow levels will decrease
to around 1000 to 1500 feet overnight with generally less than an
inch of new snow.

A few flurries cannot be ruled out, but the area will be mainly
dry Sunday through Tuesday morning. The focus for the next
forecast issuance will be on the details of the next low elevation
snow event at mid-week.

&&

.AVIATION...For the 16/12Z TAFs...Rain and snow showers will
continue west of the Cascades through today. Conditions will
generally be VFR outside showers and MVFR inside showers, or as low
as IFR in any snow showers. East of the Cascades, snow showers
continue today and conditions will be VFR except IFR in snow
showers. -Wright

&&

.MARINE...Updated 800 AM PST Saturday 16 February 2019...West
swells have diminished somewhat, but the combination of swell and
wind waves will keep seas at small craft advisory levels through
Monday morning. Breezy west winds will gradually diminish this
morning, but ongoing showers may produce gusty and erratic winds
as they pass through the area. There will be a break in the stormy
weather late Monday through Tuesday night, then another frontal
system will bring strong winds followed by heavy northwest swell
Wednesday into Thursday. -Wright


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 309 AM PST Sat Feb 16 2019/

DISCUSSION...We are continuing to monitor snow showers across
southern Oregon and northern California. Although there are a few
areas seeing some small breaks in the precipitation, these breaks
will be short-lived. The current temperature in Medford is hanging
around 37 to 38 degrees, and holding steady. Thus, the snow level
hasn`t made it to the valley floors quite yet. I imagine a
particularly heavy shower could bring a rain/snow mix. Regardless,
most areas along and west of the Cascades remain under a winter
weather advisory with portions of eastern Curry, Josephine, and
western and Southern Siskiyou County are in a Winter Storm
warning.

We recommend checking www.tripcheck.com and quickmap.dot.ca.gov
for road conditions before embarking on your travel plans as these
showers will continue through the morning.

A brief decrease in shower coverage will occur during the day
today, but high resolution models indicate another strong push of
energy will be possible with another low and associated cold front
coming from Alaska moves through the Pacific Northwest this
evening. This could create additional problems for some of the
passes in Oregon (including the lower passes). Additionally, this
front will cause snow levels to lower to the valley floors--
leaving a chance for light accumulating snow. It will just depend
on what happens first: Showers ending or the drop in snow levels.

Showers will end on Sunday, and we will get a short break in
precipitation. We, however, will not see a large rebound in
temperatures as northerly flow is expected to continue into
Monday. Then another system looks like it will just pass by
offshore of Oregon Monday night into Tuesday. This could bring
some precipitation west of the Cascades and north of the Umpqua
Divide, but models suggest that the precipitation will largely
fall offshore.

Then, another front and low pressure system will move southward
across the Pacific Northwest. Models are starting to show an
upward trend in precipitation amounts, and although the models are
coming into better agreement regarding this system, wanted to wait
another model run before beginning to commit to this trend. The
important thing to remember with this particular system is that
snow levels will not have risen due to the northerly flow and the
other low pressure system. Thus, snow levels are still forecast to
hang between 1500 feet at night and 2000 feet during the day. This
could provide additional low pass snow, and thus should be
monitored. Showers will continue for the next couple of days, but
then conditions may dry out briefly by Friday.

Another system is then poised to reach the Pacific Northwest late
into the weekend. Thus continuing the generally active pattern we
remain in. -Schaaf

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...High Surf Advisory until 10 AM PST this morning for ORZ021-022.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 8 AM PST Sunday above 2500 feet in
     the for ORZ027-028.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 8 AM PST Sunday for ORZ024.
     Winter Storm Warning until 8 AM PST Sunday for ORZ024.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 8 AM PST Sunday below 2500 feet in
     the for ORZ023-025-026.

CA...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM PST this morning for CAZ082.
     Winter Storm Warning until 10 AM PST this morning for CAZ082.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM PST this morning for CAZ080.
     Winter Storm Warning until 10 AM PST this morning for CAZ080.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM PST this morning for CAZ081.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM PST this morning for CAZ083.

Pacific Coastal Waters...High Surf Advisory until 10 AM PST this morning
     for PZZ350-356.
     Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas until 10 AM PST Monday
     for PZZ350-356-370-376.

$$

DW/KRS/CZS


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