Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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FXUS63 KMKX 240241
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
941 PM CDT Tue Apr 23 2019

.UPDATE...Sct-bkn cirrus on northern periphery of developing
southern Plains low pressure have thinned temporarily over far
southern areas, but expect the cirrus to return later tonight into
Wednesday. Expect winds to remain mostly onshore and become light
and variable for a time closer to Lake Michigan, turning back to
the southeast Wednesday morning. Upstream cirrus over northern WI
also thinning as expected.

&&

.MARINE...High pressure passing slowly across the Lake Michigan
area will result in lighter and variable winds overnight. Winds
will turn to the south and increase later Wednesday into Wednesday
night ahead of an approaching cold front.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... (Issued 603 PM CDT Tue Apr 23 2019)

UPDATE...No changes to ongoing forecast for the short term. Thin
cirrus affecting far southern areas will clear for a time
overnight but should return on Wednesday as low pressure slowly
deepens and moves across the central MS Valley region. Winds near
Lake Michigan may remain light east to northeast through the
night, veering to the southeast Wednesday morning. Considering a
thunder threat on Thursday, but still some differences in timing
of frontal passage. Will look for better consistency in next model
run before making changes.

AVIATION(00Z TAFS)...VFR conditions to continue. Winds near lake
Michigan may remain light east to northeast tonight, veering to
the southeast Wednesday morning.

PREV DISCUSSION... (Issued 241 PM CDT Tue Apr 23 2019)

DISCUSSION...

Tonight through Wednesday night - Confidence...Medium to High
High pressure with its associated cool and dry airmass will hold
sway through tonight. The high will shift into the eastern lakes/Ohio
Valley region Wednesday and thus set up a return flow through
Wednesday night. A frontal boundary will be dropping into the area
from the northwest Wednesday night. At this time it appears the rain
showers with the front will remain to our northwest this period.

Thursday - Confidence...Medium
Frontal boundary will work into the area along with a mid level
shortwave. The GEM and ECMWF are more robust with qpf than the latest
GFS. Will use blended guidance at this point.

Thursday night through Friday night - Confidence...Medium
Cold advection takes hold Thursday night. A weak trough sets up across
northern WI but looks to have little impact here. So will keep dry
forecast going through Friday night when high pressure ridges in.

Saturday and Saturday night - Confidence...Low to Medium
Progs in good agreement in taking a surface low south of our area
with a seemingly glum day in the works. Hopefully these chilly
looking thermal fields will relax a bit between now and then,
especially for Saturday night when colder 850/925 temps in concert
with boundary layer cooling comes more into play. The GEM is a
weaker and further south solution with much less qpf than the
ECMWF and far less than the GFS. The likely pops look good at this
point but can see them trending even higher as we draw closer.
System shifts east Saturday night with precip exiting. The GFS
shows a stronger, slower and slightly colder solution than the
ECMWF. Enough discontinuity to ride with the blend for now.

Sunday through Tuesday - Confidence...Low
The faster, less amplified look of the ECMWF shows another wave
fast on the heels of the departed wave. This leads to quicker cyclogenesis.
Meanwhile the GEM/GFS look more similar with a southern and slower
arrival of the next feature early next week. Blended fields used once
again.

AVIATION(21Z TAFS)...Lingering stratocu in the far southeast otherwise
VFR this period with high pressure settling across the area tonight.

MARINE...High pressure settles across the area tonight with north/northwest
winds gradually easing. Small craft conditions likely to return by
the weekend.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...None.
&&

$$

Update...MBK
Tonight/Wednesday and Aviation/Marine...Collar
Wednesday Night through Tuesday...Collar



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