Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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FXUS63 KMKX 301355
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
855 AM CDT Fri Jul 30 2021

.UPDATE...
(Issued 855 AM CDT Fri Jul 30 2021)

Going forecast looks good.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Issued 343 AM CDT Fri Jul 30 2021)

Today through Saturday:

Stratus developed across much of southern WI this morning due to
moisture trapped in the low levels. The development was coincident
with a renewed surge of northeast winds with cold air advection.
The low clouds will mix out by mid morning. Meanwhile, mid level
clouds overspread southern MN in response to weak vorticity
advection. These should spread into southwest WI later today and
linger through tonight.

Temperatures will be cooler today, with highs in the mid to upper
70s. Dewpoints are taking a while to drop, but that drier air is
working its way in. The dry air will be temporary, since southerly
winds will resume Saturday morning as weak low pressure tracks
across lake Superior. Thunderstorms are looking more likely along
the associated cold front that will slide down through WI Saturday
afternoon into the evening. There will be enhanced lift along the
front with a shortwave trough moving through as well. Highs on
Saturday will get into the lower 80s and dewpoints will return to
the lower to mid 60s.

SPC continues to have the north half of our county warning area in
a slight risk for severe storms. Bulk shear should be around 30 kt
with around 1000 j/kg of CAPE. These parameters are sufficient to
produce a few stronger updrafts. With a straight hodograph
forecast, strong winds are the threat.

Cronce

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Issued 343 AM CDT Fri Jul 30 2021)

Sunday through Thursday:

An extended period of northwest steering winds in the mid-levels
will continue through mid-week. After the expected cold front
swings through southern WI Saturday night, high pressure will
build across the western Great Lakes on Sunday, with low level
cool air advection and possibly a period of cumulus or
stratocumulus as a result. Drier and less humid air will continue
to filter into the area so clearing skies are expected later
Sunday or Sunday evening.

The high pressure area would linger over the area through Tuesday
night as a nearly stationary low pressure trof lingers over the
eastern CONUS. Eventually a weakening back door cold front may
move through the area later Wednesday and Wednesday night but
there is too much uncertainty at this time to introduce any small
Pops. The northwest steering winds will result in more light and
variable winds for much of this period, with an afternoon lake
breeze

More unsettled conditions may return to the Upper Midwest later
next week into the weekend of August 7-8 as the upper level
steering winds become more zonal ahead of amplifying low pressure.
However the extended deterministic guidance is in poor agreement
on the strength and timing of this low pressure area.

Kavinsky

&&

.AVIATION...
(Issued 855 AM CDT Fri Jul 30 2021)

Plenty of mid level cloud cover across western WI into MN/IA. A
lot of this eroding/thinning on the leading edge. Overall high
pressure continues to build in through tonight with diminishing
winds. All in all expect VFR conditions this period.

&&

.MARINE...
(Issued 343 AM CDT Fri Jul 30 2021)

Steady north-northeast winds will diminish through late morning as
high pressure settles over Lake Michigan. Extended the small craft
advisory to account for slower subsiding waves. Low pressure
tracking across Lake Superior tonight will bring increasing
southwest winds to Lake Michigan later tonight into Saturday.
Breezy northerly winds are expected in the wake of a cold front on
Sunday. Gusts should remain below 30 kt.

Cronce

&&

.BEACHES...
(Issued 343 AM CDT Thu Jul 29 2021)

Extended the Beach Hazard Statement until 1 PM for the Lake
Michigan beaches from Sheboygan County south to Kenosha County.
This is due to north to northeast winds and waves of 3 to 6 feet
lingering a little longer than previously forecast. Winds and
waves will diminish from north to south through late morning.

Northerly winds will ramp up once again on Sunday. Another Beach
Hazards Statement may be needed.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...Beach Hazards Statement...WIZ052-WIZ060-WIZ066-WIZ071-WIZ072
     until 1 PM Friday.

LM...Small Craft Advisory...LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646 until 1 PM
     Friday.

&&

$$

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