Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

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FXUS62 KMLB 280653
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
253 AM EDT Wed Jul 28 2021

.DISCUSSION...

...Locally Heavy Rainfall Remains Possible Next Few Days...

...Peak Heat Indices 101-106F Next Few Afternoons...

Today-Tonight...The Subtropical Ridge remains well east of our
area, with the outstretched ridge axis positioned across far
South FL. This will produce light west/west-southwest wind flow
across Central FL today. Deep moisture remains in place as recent
GOES-16 Total Precipitable Water imagery indicates PWATs of
2.1-2.3" are present. Expecting a very similar afternoon to what
we experienced yesterday, with sea breeze and outflow boundary
driven convection. Rain chances are around 60 percent for all of
east-central FL today. Afternoon temps reach the low to mid 90s,
with peak heat indices between 101 and 106.

Prevailing westerly flow allows the west coast sea breeze to push
inland at a modest pace, with scattered showers and storms
developing across inland areas by late morning. Then, the east
coast sea breeze develops early in the afternoon and remains
pinned along I-95. Scattered to numerous showers and lightning
storms develop as the sea breezes collide in the mid/late afternoon.

Storms today will produce frequent lightning strikes, torrential
downpours, and gusty winds up to 40 mph. Steering flow remains weak,
around 5-10 mph, which maintains the threat for localized flooding
due to heavy rainfall. Some areas could see rainfall amounts of 2-3
inches in the strongest storms. Most of the afternoon showers/storms
should dissipate by early evening, with any lingering activity gone
after sunset. Mostly dry overnight with temps in the mid 70s.

Thu-Tue...The subtropical high pressure ridge center remains
centered well into the Atlc with associated ridge axis surpressed
across the southern FL peninsula through well into the extended.
Aloft, weak ridging in the mid-levels is forecast, and though early
next week a general troughiness pattern tries to set up just to the
north with some stronger mid-level westerlies and perhaps some
shortwave energy. This will allow for a weak surface boundary to be
forced into the Deep South north of Florida and to continue to allow
for deep moisture to be drawn north into ECFL. We can expect a weak
pressure gradient at the surface which favors light offshore winds
each night/morning followed by sea breeze development daily at the
coast with slow inland movement. Storm steering flow will be weak
and erratic at times.

The sea breeze combined with deep moisture and daytime heating will
be the driver of showers and lightning storms each afternoon, as
rain chances range from 50-60 percent each afternoon/evening.
Frequent lightning strikes, torrential downpours, and gusty winds
will continue to be the primary threats from storms. There will be a
higher threat for localized flooding due to slow storm motion, as
previously mentioned, with some storms likely able to produce 1-3
inches of rain in a 1-2 hour time period. Areas that receive daily
heavy rainfall and local streams/rivers will also need to be
monitored.

Afternoon highs should reach the L90s along the coast and L-M90s
inland, with peak heat indices between 101 and 106 each day. It will
remain muggy overnight as lows settle in the M-U70s. Cloud debris
will slowly thin each evening and overnight.

&&

.AVIATION...

Another active day as numerous showers and lightning storms develop
across the area. Should be an early start for the inland terminals
with showers developing by late morning, then thunderstorms increase
in coverage through the afternoon. The sea breeze will develop and
remain pinned along the coast. TEMPO groups added to MLB, VRB, FPR,
and SUA where confidence/timing is highest for impacts. Amendments
and new TEMPOs likely needed for the other terminals today.

&&

.MARINE...

Today-Tonight...Favorable boating conditions today with light winds
across the local waters. The sea breeze develops by early afternoon
causing winds to become southeast at 10-15 knots. Scattered to
numerous lightning storms are expected to develop along the sea
breeze and meander near the coast. Frequent lightning strikes and
gusty winds up to 35 knots will be the main threats to mariners.
Seas 1-2 feet, with up to 3 feet possible far offshore.

Thu-Mon...Generally favorable boating conditions are forecast to
persist across the local waters through the upcoming weekend and
likely into early next week outside of any shower/storm activity.
Winds will generally be light/moderate (AOB 15 kts). Wind direction
will become offshore each evening/overnight and gradually southeast
to south at 10-15 knots behind the sea breeze each afternoon. Seas
around 1-2 feet near the coast, with 3 feet possible well offshore.

The highest coverage of afternoon storms will generally focus along
and west of I-95, though there will still be activity across the
Intracoastal Waterway and very near shore Atlc waters. Weak west
winds and some dominant boundary collisions will also nudge a few
storms toward the coast late each afternoon and evening. Cloud-to-
water lightning strikes, torrential downpours, and a few wind gusts
to 35 knots will be the main threats to mariners.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  91  74  90  75 /  60  30  60  20
MCO  93  77  93  76 /  60  30  60  20
MLB  92  76  92  76 /  60  30  60  30
VRB  93  74  92  75 /  60  30  60  30
LEE  91  77  91  77 /  60  30  60  20
SFB  92  76  92  75 /  60  30  60  20
ORL  93  78  93  77 /  60  30  60  20
FPR  93  74  92  75 /  60  30  60  30

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

Rodriguez/Sedlock


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