Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

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FXUS62 KMLB 311348 AAA
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
948 AM EDT Tue Mar 31 2020

Current-This Afternoon...Low level clouds continue to
stream across the Gulf of Mexico this morning, pushing onshore the
western FL coast and continuing east across the forecast area. Cloud
cover should begin to lift later this morning, especially across the
south. Proximity of sfc high pressure over the Caribbean and low
over central MS will lead to a tightening pressure gradient today,
thus increasing gusty southwesterly winds up to 15 to 20 mph early
this afternoon. This deep southwesterly flow will yet again allow
temperatures to soar to the upper 80s across the interior to low 90s
at the coast, inhibiting any formation of the east coast sea breeze.
Morning update adjusts coastal temps upward slightly, with record
high values at risk nearly everywhere today. Rain chances through
early evening persist near zero, but an approaching cold front may
offer temporary relief tonight to the rain free conditions.
Remainder of forecast looks on track, with no other necessary
changes made through this eve.

Tonight...(previous) Majority of model guidance holds off any
precipitation ahead of the approaching front until this evening,
when isolated to scattered showers are expected to develop and
push quickly eastward up to 40 to 50 mph across the area and
offshore as front gradually moves southward through central
Florida. While strong 0-6km shear around 50 knots will exist south
of this boundary, instability looks very limited, with even
MUCAPE values around 100 J/kg or less. Therefore still feel
potential of isolated thunderstorm development looks too low to
mention. However, regardless of any lightning activity, increasing
low level westerly winds will give any showers that form the
potential to to produce strong wind gusts up to 40 to 45 mph.

&&

.AVIATION...
Low level cloudiness this morning producing temporary MVFR cigs
across northern terminals should lift by late this morning.
Tightening pressure gradient from sfc high over the Caribbean and
approaching cold front will increase sustained winds to around 15
kts with gusts up to 22-25 kts after 17-18Z.

Into this evening, a cold front will approach the area, increasing
clouds and the chance for VCSH after 00Z. Will hold off on any
mention of TS for now, but any iso storm potential later this
evening would be highest in the vicinity of KLEE/KDAB.

&&

.MARINE...
Today-Tonight...(modified previous) Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots
will increase to 15 to 20 knots offshore late this afternoon as
gradient tightens ahead of an approaching weak cold front. Winds
will become westerly and increase further to 20 to 25 knots across
the coastal waters this evening as front nears and begins to move
through the area. Occasional gusts to gale force will be possible
offshore into tonight. Chance for showers moving northwest to
southeast across the local waters after sunset, with a low end
threat for wind gusts up to 34 kts in some showers.

.FIRE WEATHER...
Today...Minimum RH values expected to remain
above critical levels today, falling to the low to mid 40s this
afternoon. However, breezy west-southwest winds will combine with
antecedent dry soil and vegetation conditions across the area to
produce a high danger for wildfire spread today.

.CLIMATE...
With highs forecast in the upper 80s to low 90s most sites will have
a chance to tie or break their record highs for today. The exception
is Orlando, where the record looks far enough out of reach.

Site Date   Record
            /Year
DAB  3/31  90-1954
LEE  3/31  88-2016
SFB  3/31  92-1970
MCO  3/31  95-1907
MLB  3/31  91-1954
VRB  3/31  90-1975
FPR  3/31  90-1993

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  90  61  73  56 /  10  40   0   0
MCO  90  64  79  56 /  10  40   0   0
MLB  92  66  76  60 /   0  30   0   0
VRB  92  66  79  59 /   0  30   0   0
LEE  88  62  77  54 /  10  40   0   0
SFB  91  63  77  55 /  10  40   0   0
ORL  90  64  78  57 /  10  40   0   0
FPR  92  66  80  59 /   0  30   0   0

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 8 AM EDT
     Wednesday for Flagler Beach to Volusia-Brevard County Line
     0-20 nm-Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 0-20 nm-Volusia-
     Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 0-20 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 5 PM EDT
     Wednesday for Flagler Beach to Volusia-Brevard County Line
     20-60 nm-Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 20-60 nm-Volusia-
     Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 20-60 nm.

&&

$$

Smith/Rodriguez


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