Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

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FXUS62 KMLB 180858
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
355 AM EST Mon Feb 18 2019

.DISCUSSION...

...Warm Weather Pattern Will Continue into Late February...

Today-Tonight...A high pressure across the Atlantic will extend
toward central/south Florida today and retreat to the east tonight.
Also today, an area of low pressure exiting the mid-Atlantic states
and entering the Atlantic waters this morning, will move to the
northeast through the day and tonight. A cold front extending from
this low, will weaken as it drops south from SE U.S. towards
northern FL today. Latest guidance shows the front reaching northern
Lake and Volusia in the early evening, causing a wind shift from the
northwest to northeast after its passage. However, winds over land
will remain light through the night. The front will move south and
become nearly stationary from the Atlantic to the Cape towards the
Gulf late tonight. PWAT values won`t increase much today ahead of
the front, ranging from 1.30 to 1.5 inches across the area. A few
showers, however, will be possible to stream across east central FL
today from the southwest and from the south tonight. Temperatures
will once again rise above normal, with expected highs in the middle
80s with minimums tonight in the mid to upper 60s.

If venturing to the beach and you decide to get in the water, note
that there is a moderate risk for rip currents along the beaches of
east central FL.

Tuesday-Friday...Large mid-upper level ridge will remain anchored
over Florida and the Bahamas through late week. At the surface, the
stalled front over northern CWA Tuesday morning will lift back north
of the area by the evening as a strong high pressure ridge over the
eastern CONUS pushes out into the Atlantic. Moisture band associated
with the front will enhance rain chances across the northern/central
CWA through mid week, before POPs drop back to AOB 20 percent as the
ridge aloft strengthens. With the ridge remaining the dominant wx
feature through the end of the week, temperatures will continue well
above normal this week, with some modest cooling near the coast from
the Cape northward Tuesday, owing to a brief onshore wind surge near
the front.

Next weekend...The persistent mid level ridge over Florida will
gradually weaken/flatten as a pair of northern stream short wave
troughs initiate a more zonal pattern aloft across the CONUS. The
Atlantic surface ridge, which gets reinforced from the north Friday
night into Saturday, will shift east into the Atlantic ahead of an
approaching cool front, which is forecast to slow as it reaches the
Florida panhandle. This would have the potential to increase POPs
over the northern and central CWA early next week. However, given
the extended time frame (D7-8), will only introduce slight to low
chance for showers for Sunday-Monday. Temps will remain well above
normal.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR conditions expected through the period with clouds
at 030-050 streaming over the terminals today. A cold front will
approach from the north this evening, causing a wind shift from the
NW to NE but winds remaining at 10 knots or less. Best approximate
times for this wind shift are noted in the TAFs.

&&

.MARINE...
Today-Tonight...Southwest winds this morning and afternoon will
shift from the northeast this evening and overnight from Volusia to
east of Brevard as a cold front approaches from the north. Behind
the front, winds will increase to 15-20 kts late tonight across the
offshore waters east of Volusia. Seas will increase tonight north of
the Cape to 4-5 feet and remaining 2-3 feet southward.

Tuesday-Friday...Easterly surge of around 20KT from Cape Canaveral
northward will continue into Tuesday, with 15-20KT winds spreading
south as the flow veers to SE Tuesday night, and more southerly at
speeds closer to 15KT Wednesday through Friday. It appears at this
time that SCA conditions (seas peaking at 7-8FT) will spread into
the Volusia County waters Tuesday with a Cautionary Statement likely
to be needed farther south through at least mid week, and possibly a
linger longer beyond 20NMi.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Temperatures are expected to remain above normal through much of the
work week, with the potential for a few record highs as well as some
warm minimum temperature records to be tied or broken across east
central Florida.

       MON FEB 18       TUE FEB 19        WED FEB 20
LOC  HI-MAX  HI-MIN   HI-MAX  HI-MIN   HI-MAX  HI-MIN
DAB  87 1944 66 1990  86 1990 66 1994  85 1988 69 2018
MCO  87 1975 65 1995  88 1962 67 1992  89 1988 69 1961
SFB  87 1975 65 2012  88 2012 65 1990  85 2018 68 1961
MLB  88 2008 68 2008  88 1975 73 2018  86 1988 75 2018
VRB  88 2008 69 2008  87 2012 71 1961  87 1975 73 2018
FPR  87 2008 70 2008  88 1992 71 1961  88 1932 73 2018

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...No critical RH concerns this week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  84  64  73  65 /  30  20  50  30
MCO  87  66  80  66 /  20  20  40  30
MLB  84  70  80  70 /  30  30  50  20
VRB  85  68  82  69 /  30  30  40  20
LEE  84  64  77  66 /  30  20  30  30
SFB  86  66  77  66 /  20  20  40  30
ORL  87  67  79  66 /  20  20  40  30
FPR  85  67  81  70 /  30  40  40  20

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...Negron
LONG TERM/IMPACT WX...Cristaldi


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