351
FXUS64 KMOB 140014
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
714 PM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025

...New Aviation, Update...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 703 PM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will persist across interior
sections of southwest into south-central Alabama and portions of
the western Florida Panhandle this evening. Storm development
continues to focus along a series of convective outflow
boundaries, with a primary outflow spreading northeast out of
southern Mississippi and interacting with moderately unstable
conditions with MLCAPES still around 2500 j/kg, especially across
interior southwest Alabama. Any storms this evening should
gradually diminish with dry conditions returning for most
locations late this evening through the overnight hours.

Warm and humid conditions will prevail with light winds in most
locations. Cannot rule out some isolated patchy ground fog in
areas which experienced appreciable rain today as clouds gradually
clear. /JLH

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1250 PM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025

Generally typical afternoon and evening showers and storms
continue to be expected across the region through early this week
as upper ridging remains overhead. This will allow for
temperatures to be quite hot with daytime highs in the middle to
upper 90`s, hottest Tuesday, and overnight lows in the middle 70`s
through Tuesday night. While afternoon dewpoints are expected to
mix out quite a bit thanks to continued northerly winds and dry
air aloft, the hot temperatures combined with lower 70`s
dewpoints should allow for heat indices to rise into the 100 to
108 range, warmest Tuesday. Heat indices should overall remain
near or below heat advisory criteria, however heat risk values
around 3 area- wide Tuesday would suggest a heat advisory may be
needed for the forecast area. Subsequent shifts will continue to
assess the latest forecast guidance for any need for heat
products.

As we move into the middle of the week all eyes turn towards the
Gulf as an inverted trough/area of low pressure moves offshore the
western coast of the Florida Peninsula. Model guidance has become
a bit more enthused overall on the potential for development into
a tropical system, but development probabilities still remain low
at this time. There is still substantial variability between the
various models and their ensembles on if development occurs, how
strong it could get, and where it would eventually go. Regardless
of development, there will be a significant increase in rain
chances with scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms
Wednesday through Friday. This may open the door for some flash
flooding potential depending on where any storms train over areas
repeatedly, particularly nearer the coast. Additionally, there
will be an increase in surf heights and rip currents along area
beaches which will pose an increasing risk for anyone venturing
into the water mid to late week. The rip current risk increases to
a Moderate risk by Wednesday and a High risk Wednesday night into
Thursday. Temperatures cool off quite a bit with the increased
cloud cover and rain chances keeping highs generally in the upper
80`s to perhaps lower 90`s with overnight lows still staying warm
in the lower to middle 70`s.

Heading into the weekend we return to our more typical summer-time
cadence with upper ridging building in and rain chances returning
to isolated to scattered coverage. Temperatures begin to rebound
back into the lower to middle 90`s for highs and heat indices once
again enter the 100 to 108 range. MM/25

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 703 PM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025

Storms along the coast and in proximity to the TAF sites have come
to an end leaving mainly scattered to broken mid level clouds.
These clouds should gradually thin out overnight but VFR
conditions should prevail through the entire period.

Light winds mainly from the west and northwest can be expected
through much of the period, with the exception of KBFM where a
weak bay breeze should develop around mid morning and allow winds
to become light southeasterly, and KPNS where the sea breeze will
attempt to move just inland by late tomorrow morning.

Limited convection is expected on Monday as high pressure both
surface and aloft along with anticipated atmospheric mixing should
keep storms isolated in proximity to any bay or sea breeze.
Chances too low to mention in the TAFs at this time. /JLH

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1250 PM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025

No marine impacts are expected through the early part of the week
outside of locally higher winds and seas in/near any storms. Winds
will follow the typical diurnal pattern through early this week.
By mid to late week, attention turns to a tropical disturbance in
the northeastern gulf that will track westward across the northern
gulf. Regardless of development, increasing onshore winds and seas
can be expected Wednesday through Friday, with winds likely
approaching or exceeding small craft exercise caution levels
during this timeframe in the 15 to 20 knot range. MM/25

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      73  94  75  96  75  94  73  89 /  10  30   0  40  20  70  50  90
Pensacola   77  94  79  96  78  92  76  88 /  10  30  10  40  40  80  60  90
Destin      79  94  81  95  79  91  79  89 /  10  30  10  50  50  80  60  90
Evergreen   72  96  74  97  74  95  73  90 /  30  20  10  30  20  60  30  80
Waynesboro  72  96  72  96  74  96  72  91 /  40  30   0  20  10  50  20  70
Camden      73  94  74  96  74  94  73  90 /  40  20   0  20  20  50  20  80
Crestview   73  97  75  97  74  94  73  89 /  20  30  10  60  20  80  40  90

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

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