Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL

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FXUS64 KMOB 191718 AAA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1218 PM CDT Sat Oct 19 2019

.DISCUSSION...See updated information below.


.UPDATE...Updated the current zone forecast mainly to mention a
slight chance for light rain over inland areas of south central
Al and Northwest FL through mid afternoon shifting eastward later
in the day. Also lowered the high surf warning to an advisory
which includes all beaches along the AL and NWFL coast through 7
pm. The high risk for rip currents will continue through Sunday
morning. 32/ee


.MARINE...A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for the open
gulf waters of AL and NWFL out to 60 nm due to sea heights still
running 7 feet or above. Seas will lower to below 7 feet by this
evening. A moderate northerly wind flow will gradually shift
northwest and diminish through this afternoon. 32/ee


18Z issuance...Expect VFR to MVFR cigs through about 20.06z
followed by MVFR to IFR cigs and visibilities through 20.14z,
then mostly MVFR cigs 20.18z. Skies will continue to clear to VFR
conditions Sun afternoon. Winds will be north to northwest at 10
to 15 knots with slightly higher gusts through early this evening
shifting mostly to the north and northeast 5 knots or less
overnight through 20.18z. 32/ee


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 633 AM CDT Sat Oct 19 2019/

DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

12Z issuance...Scattered showers will end this morning as Nestor
continues to move away from the region. MVFR to VFR ceilings will
continue through much of the period. /13

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 421 AM CDT Sat Oct 19 2019/

NEAR TERM /Now Through Saturday night/...Tropical Storm Nestor will
continue to move northeast and well away from the area through
this morning. This will end rain chances from west to east through
the morning with a drier airmass moving in for the afternoon. The
cloud shield will be slower to clear with gradual clearing by the
afternoon and evening. The High Surf Warning/Advisory remains in
effect through noon today and the High Rip current risk will
remain in effect through Sunday morning. The Coastal Flood
Advisory will expire at 7 am this morning. Highs today will be in
the low to mid 70s inland to upper 70s near the coast. Lows in the
mid and upper 50s inland to mid 60s along the coast. /13

SHORT TERM /Sunday Through Monday night/...A warm and mild day
anticipated Sunday. A southerly return flow develops Sunday as high
pressure from the western Atlantic ridges into the northern Gulf.
Minor ridging and dry air aloft will hinder chances for
precipitation. Temperatures are expected to rebound significantly
Sunday afternoon climbing into the low to mid 80s.  Overnight lows
Sunday night fall into the low to mid 60s in the interior in upper
60s to low 70s along the coast.

Showers and thunderstorms will develop across the area Monday ahead
of an approaching cold front.  Latest model runs show the stronger
dynamics shifting northeast of the area at this time.  However,
still enough instability along with favorable vertical shear and
forcing to produce strong to potentially severe thunderstorms with
the greatest threat likely being damaging straight line winds and
possibly a brief tornado or two. The cold front should push eastward
across and out of the forecast area Monday night with cooler, drier
air filtering in behind it. /08

LONG TERM /Tuesday Through Friday/...Lingering post frontal
precipitation should clear the forecast area from west to east
during the early morning to late morning time frame. Surface high
pressure to our north will keep a cool and dry northerly wind flow
over the area, with a generally zonal flow aloft and little chance
of precipitation through Wednesday. Surface winds become more
easterly on Thursday as surface high pressure along the Eastern
Seaboard ridges southward into the area. A moist return flow
develops on Friday and precipitation chances rise as another cold
front approaches the region. /08

MARINE...Offshore flow will decrease through the morning and become
westerly this morning as Tropical Storm Nestor moves away from the
region. Southerly flow develops tonight and continues through Monday
as a cold front approaches from the west. The cold front moves
through the marine area Monday night with northerly flow in its
wake. Easterly flow develops late in the week as high pressure moves
across the southeastern states. /13


AL...High Rip Current Risk through Sunday morning for ALZ265-266.

     High Surf Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for ALZ265-266.

FL...High Rip Current Risk through Sunday morning for FLZ202-204-206.

     High Surf Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for FLZ202-204-

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for GMZ650-655-



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