


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI
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635 FXUS63 KMQT 140827 AFDMQT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Marquette MI 427 AM EDT Mon Jul 14 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Wildfire smoke from Canada continues to reside over the area, resulting in air quality concerns and reduced visibility. See the Air Quality Alert for more information. - A few showers and thunderstorms are possible (20-35% chance) across the south-central UP this afternoon. - Periods of rain and thunderstorms are expected overnight tonight into Tuesday (20-50% chance; highest north/west) and Wednesday (50- 80% chance). - Seasonably warm through Tuesday, then sharply cooler Wednesday into Thursday. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 426 AM EDT Mon Jul 14 2025 KMQT radar returns show shower coverage and intensity decreasing through the early morning hours as a weak surface trough moves through the western UP and eastern Lake Superior. A reinforcing cold front following that trough is expected to move through the area through the morning, though it is weak enough that it will need the assistance of the Lake Michigan lake breeze to kick off any showers and thunderstorms this afternoon. 00Z CAMs are split on the potential for that to occur with significant timing, placement, and intensity differences of convection this afternoon, though the most likely locations seem to be along the Bay of Green Bay in Menominee and Delta counties. Severe weather is not expected with this convection as a low to mid level inversion will limit instability somewhat and flow in the bottom 200 or so mb of the atmosphere is fairly weak. Still, enough instability is present such that any updrafts that can establish free convection will be vigorous enough to produce lightning, so outdoor industry and recreation in the south-central today should keep an eye on the weather this afternoon. Otherwise, expect high temperatures to once again reach the 80s for the interior UP (NBM probabilities of exceeding 90 degrees around 30 percent for some pockets of the interior west) and highs in the upper 70s next to the Great Lakes where the lake breeze will keep temperatures slightly cooler. The other hazard of the day continues to be the air quality as wildfire smoke from Canadian fires continues to be trapped near the surface, with both the HRRR- Smoke and the RAP-Smoke showing concentrations of near-surface smoke exceeding thresholds that are unhealthy for sensitive groups. An Air Quality alert from MI EGLE remains in effect today as a result. Tonight, with NAEFS moisture content showing over the 90th percentile of climatology and ongoing 850mb warm advection, temperatures will struggle to fall below the mid 60s. Attention then turns upstream to a shortwave impulse approaching the region from the west. Pre-frontal warm advection showers are currently only expected to impact Isle Royale, western Lake Superior (up to 50 percent PoPs each), and potentially the Keweenaw Peninsula (~20% chance) prior to 12Z. Thunderstorms will be possible, but severe weather is not prior to the arrival of better forcing and diurnal destabilization. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... Issued at 245 PM EDT Sun Jul 13 2025 Flat zonal flow over the northern tier of the CONUS to start the week will amplify with time as a shortwave trough, as an extension of a deep Hudson Bay low, will shift eastward across the northern Plains midweek and into the Great Lakes by the end of the week. At lower levels, a warm front will extend northeast from a low in the central High Plains, sagging southward with time as high pressure builds in behind it. The placement of this front in the vicinity of the local area will be the main driver of impactful weather through the midweek period. Tuesday, model consensus suggests we will be mainly on the warm side of the front, and with 850 mb temps averaging around 16C (+1 to +2 sigma), this will be the warmest day of the week. Highs are expected to be in the mid to upper 80s (except perhaps for the Keweenaw which will be cooler in closer proximity to the front and possible rainfall), and with dewpoints approaching 70F, this could result in heat indices in the lower 90s. Instability will likely be quite healthy in this warm airmass, with the 06Z REFS mean indicating 1-2 kJ/kg by 18Z Tue. Thunderstorm potential will be maximized north of the area in closer proximity to the front and lower midlevel heights, but it`s possible that the front sags south far enough to touch off some convective activity in the afternoon, especially over the north/west. There likely exists some severe potential if this occurs given the instability, although model consensus suggests deep- layer shear may be on the weak side at less than 30 kt. The low-level front continues to linger in the area Wednesday into Thursday, with consensus supporting the surface portion of it sagging mainly south of the area. This will result in sharply cooler temperatures by Wednesday, with highs stuck in the 60s (and maybe even 50s closer to the still below-normal temperatures of Lake Superior) over most of the northern half. Additional rounds of showers and perhaps thunderstorms are expected along the front, especially Tuesday night into Wednesday. Some areas could see heavy rainfall if repeated rounds develop. The pattern largely supports this, with mid/upper level winds largely parallel to the slowly- moving lower-level boundary, and PWATs around 1.5 (+1 to +2 sigma). Gradual drying trend for the end of the week as high pressure builds in the wake of this front, with temps likely rebounding closer to normal Friday into Saturday. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 147 AM EDT Mon Jul 14 2025 VFR cigs are expected the full duration of the 6Z TAF period. The current reprieve from HZ/FU vis restrictions is anticipated to hold through early this morning. -SHRA and a few rumbles of thunder are currently passing the far W, but this wave likely weakens and dries out before reaching SAW. MVFR vis restrictions from HZ/FU are anticipated to return by mid morning as another plume of Canadian wildfire smoke surges in from the NW. Improvement is expected late in the day, likely occuring first at IWD/SAW, then a few hours later at CMX. && .MARINE... Issued at 903 AM EDT Sun Jul 13 2025 Visibility will continue to be reduced in areas of fog and wildfire smoke into Monday. Winds will increase with west-southwesterly gusts around 20 kt through today, mainly over the western half. A weakening band of showers and thunderstorms is possible over the western lake this evening (40% chance). Winds diminish early in the week, but could increase to near 20 kt from the north late in the week behind a frontal boundary. Unsettled weather returns Tuesday/Wednesday with additional rounds of showers and thunderstorms possible, plus the potential for fog where rainfall occurs. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Upper Michigan... Air Quality Alert until midnight EDT /11 PM CDT/ tonight for MIZ001>007-009>014-084-085. Lake Superior... None. Lake Michigan... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...GS LONG TERM...Thompson AVIATION...Jablonski MARINE...Thompson