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000
FXUS63 KMQT 151832
AFDMQT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
132 PM EST Fri Feb 15 2019

.UPDATE...
Issued at 131 PM EST FRI FEB 15 2019

Another day, another overachieving system. Our very active February
winter weather continues with NWS Marquette monthly total now over
50 inches. Lake enhanced snow late last night into this morning has
been impressive to say the least. So much for the ice over western
Lk Superior holding down snow amounts. Once sharpening upper low and
sfc trough moved across last evening, highly convergent lake effect
band (nw winds over western Lk Superior and west-southwest winds
over western Upper Michigan) went nuts with multiple locations vcnty
of Twin Lakes in Houghton county reporting 20-30 inches as of early
this aftn. As an aside, this event looks familiar to the 2009 mid
winter event when all but a narrow area of open water was present
over eastern Lk Superior resulting in 2 to 3 feet of snow into
portions of western Alger county. Yes this looks similar for sure.

Lake effect farther to north across Keweenaw last night into the
morning was more in the 4-7 inch range. System still going over
Baraga/Marquette and into Alger county as well where snow totals are
pushing past 8 inches in some areas. Other issue is the blowing
snow/poor visibility which is occurring along Lk Superior and in
open areas inland.

When will it end? Main upper low and associated sfc low (down to
989mb) are slowly sliding toward border of Ontario and Quebec early
this aftn and deep moisture is slowly exiting as VWP has shown
echoes coming down from 11.5kft this morning down to 7.5kft
currently. Even so, the trend is only for a slow diminishing trend,
so already ran through and increased pops/qpf/SLR/snow, especially
through 00z tonight. Already extended headlines over west and north
central to early this evening though based on expected snowfall
from here on out, did not upgrade any additional areas to warning.
Probably will have to continue a headline for eastern areas
tonight, but will make call on that later this aftn whether it
will be an extension of the warning or a winter weather advisory.
Want to see how the ongoing lake effect trends next couple hours
as the synoptic forcing and deeper moisture continue to exit. &&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 506 AM EST FRI FEB 15 2019

A vort max over the CWA and associated 991mb surface low just E of
the CWA will continue to push E today. Synoptic snow over the E is
nearly out of the area, but NW wind lake effect snow and enhanced
snow along a surface trough are ongoing. Snowfall through tonight
will not be anything unusual with 4-6" near and E of Munising and
1-3" elsewhere in the NW wind snow belts. The bigger deal is the
winds, gusting to 40 mph from Ontonagon County through the Keweenaw
through mid-morning, and gusting 40-50mph E of Marquette this
morning and afternoon. Elsewhere, winds gust to around 30mph today.
This will lead to very poor visibilities where the strongest winds
are forecast, with white out conditions at times in open areas of
Alger, Northern Schoolcraft, and Luce counties. Did not make any
changes to headlines.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 212 AM EST FRI FEB 15 2019

Upper air pattern will consist of a 500 mb trough over the western
U.S. and also over New England 12z Sat. The trough in the western
U.S. comes out in pieces with a shortwave moving into the central
plains 00z Sun and this moves into the upper Great Lakes on Sun.
Looks pretty quiet for this forecast period with this shortwave
passing to the south of the area.

In the extended, the GFS and ECMWF show a broad 500 mb trough over
the Rockies and a trough in the Great lakes region 12z Mon. A
shortwave trough moves into the northern plains 12z Tue. This
shortwave gets sheared out as a ridge builds off the sern U.S. coast
12z Wed. The trough in the Rockies remains and digs and amplifies
12z Wed through 12z Fri. GFS is quicker with moving it into the
plains while the ECMWF keeps it stationary through Fri. This is the
major difference for this forecast. Temperatures look to stay below
normal for most of this forecast period until Fri when they reach
above normal.
&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1259 PM EST FRI FEB 15 2019

Lake effect snow and blowing snow continues to impact all sites.
IFR conditions at IWD will improve to MVFR late today, but some cigs
and flurries could persist until Sat morning. LIFR conditions at
KCMX and KSAW will transition to IFR into this evening before
improving further to MVFR overnight tonight. Likely that both sites
will see lake effect end and clouds scatter out late tonight. Some
MVFR cigs and flurries may try to return to KSAW by Sat aftn.
&&

.MARINE...(For the 4 AM Lake Superior forecast issuance)
Issued at 506 AM EST FRI FEB 15 2019

NW gales to 45 knots will continue into this evening. Heavy freezing
spray will continue into Sat morning. Quiet conditions are expected
through much of the weekend into early next week.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
  Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for MIZ004-
     005.

  Winter Weather Advisory until 5 PM EST this afternoon for
     MIZ001>003.

  Winter Storm Warning until 7 PM EST this evening for MIZ006-007-
     085.

Lake Superior...
  Heavy Freezing Spray Warning until 1 PM EST Saturday for
     LSZ248>251-265>267.

  Gale Warning until 1 AM EST Saturday for LSZ248>251-265>267.

Lake Michigan...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JLA
SHORT TERM...Titus
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...JLA
MARINE...Titus