Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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FXUS64 KMRX 250523
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Morristown TN
1223 AM EST Tue Feb 25 2020

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

The primary sw/ne oriented H3 jetmax continues to traverse the
region this evening ahead of a MidSouth H5 trough and associated
surface cyclone/front. With that, upper divergence will allow for
persistent sct/num showers through early morning before drier mid
level air advects into the region from the west, per latest WV
imagery. The front itself looks to push into the region
around/before sunrise with little fanfare as no real airmass
change will occur. All in all the current fcst looked pretty good,
with only minor tweaks to pops/temps made to align with recent
radar/obs trends.

CDG


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

The showers will continue to diminish, but difficult forecast for
cigs/vis especially early so confidence not high on the details.
Expect MVFR conditions at times at TRI tonight into early today,
with MVFR/IFR conditions further south. Should see improvement to
VFR all sites during the day and continuing through the end of
the period. Winds will pick up a bit from the southwest during the
day, especially at TYS/TRI, then become light again late.



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             63  43  52  30  45 /  10  10  50  20   0
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  63  44  52  30  42 /  20  20  60  20   0
Oak Ridge, TN                       63  43  52  29  43 /  20  20  70  20   0
Tri Cities Airport, TN              61  42  54  27  38 /  30  10  80  30   0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$


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