Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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FXUS64 KMRX 201944
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
344 PM EDT Sat Apr 20 2019

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight and Sunday)...
The upper low has moved little since this morning and was still
bringing light rain showers to the lower elevations and snow showers
at the highest elevations this afternoon. Winds were southwest 10 to
20 mph with temperatures at mid afternoon in the mid 40s to near 50
lower elevations and 30s above about 4000 feet. The upper low will
only move very slowly north to northeast tonight. The lower clouds
around it extend west to the Tennessee River west of Nashville and
cover most of northern AL. Skies will stay mostly cloudy this
evening and then slowly clear from southwest to northeast after
midnight. Expect low clouds to hang on in the morning across the
northeast half of the area. This will affect sunrise services.
Temperatures will be down around 40 again early Sunday with near
freezing in the highest elevations. Parts of the southern plateau
and southwest North Carolina mountains will drop into the 30s with
clearing on the plateau but not confident enough that enough area
will have frost to warrant a frost advisory. An additional inch of
snow also may accumulate in the Smokies about 5000 feet this
evening. Lowered temperatures a few degrees Sunday as influence of
upper low still keeps cooler airmass over part of the region Sunday
morning with lingering clouds. Highs will warm into the mid 50s
northeast to around 70 at Chattanooga.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)...
The extended period of the forecast holds together, in terms of
model consensus, quite well through Wednesday with some most
pleasant ridging and associated dry weather. Later in the period,
forecast uncertainty increases to a degree with differences in how
quickly and how deep a southern stream feature will become as it
progresses through the Lower Mississippi Valley and Southeastern
U.S. This forecast applies slight through lower chance pops for
some showers later Wednesday night into Thursday with increasing
moisture and instability available for the arrival of another
upper level low across the Deep South later Thursday night into
Friday. The highest probabilities were forecast for this period
with decreasing chance of showers into the first half of the
weekend. It will feel like Spring again with very pleasant highs
in the 70s and even lower 80s with lows mainly in the 50s.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             40  72  47  78 /  20   0   0   0
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  42  67  45  76 /  50  10   0   0
Oak Ridge, TN                       41  68  45  77 /  50   0   0   0
Tri Cities Airport, TN              39  60  42  73 /  50  20   0   0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
TN...None.
VA...None.
&&

$$

TD



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