Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Francisco Bay Area, CA

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000
FXUS66 KMTR 280100
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco Bay Area
500 PM PST Thu Feb 27 2020

.SYNOPSIS...Unseasonably mild and dry conditions will persist over
the region through the remainder of the week with increasing clouds.
A weather system will approach from the northwest this weekend,
bringing cooler temperatures and the potential for isolated to
scattered rain showers over the Central Coast on Sunday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...as of 01:54 PM PST Thursday...Low clouds and fog
persist offshore this afternoon as temperatures inland have warmed
into the 70s to near 80 deg F in the warmest interior locations.
This is as high pressure continues to dominate the weather pattern
over California and will do so through Friday. In addition, high
clouds advecting inland over the Central Coast can also be seen in
visible satellite at this hour.

Not expecting too much change in the next 24 hours except for an
increase in cloud cover and slight cooling near the coast on Friday.
This will be the result of high pressure aloft weakening ahead of an
approaching mid/upper level trough to the north. Look for daytime
temperatures to remain above seasonal averages with upper 60s to near
70 deg F at the coast and widespread 70s in the interior.

A more robust cooling trend will occur on Saturday with afternoon
temperatures dropping a good 10 to 15 deg compared to late week as
onshore flow increases. As the main mid/upper level trough drops
southward across the region and becomes a cut-off low Saturday night
into Sunday, there will be the potential for some showers across the
region. The latest thinking is that the best chance of any
precipitation will be from the Santa Cruz Mountains inland and
southward throughout the Central Coast during the morning and
afternoon hours on Sunday. Cannot rule out the possibility of an
isolated thunderstorms or two or at least convective showers with
small hail early Sunday afternoon across the Central Coast.
Regardless, widespread beneficial rainfall is unlikely to occur with
this passing system. Snow showers will also be possible in the
higher elevations of the Central Coast as well with snow levels
falling to below 3,000 feet Saturday night into Sunday morning.
Breezy to locally gusty winds will also develop late Saturday night
into Sunday, especially near the coast and in the hills. However,
winds are likely to remain below advisory criteria with only a few
gusts in the region`s highest peaks to reach/exceed 45 mph.

Cooler overnight temperatures are also likely Sunday morning and
again Monday morning as winds diminish and sky conditions clear.
This will allow for more widespread 30s across the interior with 40s
elsewhere. However, widespread freezing temperatures appear unlikely
at this time. A slight warming trend is then forecast through at
least the middle part of next week as a ridge of high pressure
builds back in across the region in wake of the exiting mid/upper
level trough. Thus, look for the return of mild and dry conditions
region-wide.

&&

.AVIATION...as of 5:00 PM PST Thursday...Stratus has developed
along the coast but light offshore flow will continue just above
the surface through Friday.

Vicinity of KSFO...VFR. Onshore winds 10-15 kt decreasing after
04Z.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to KSFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR. Brief onshore winds 5-10 kt through
early evening becoming east to southeast.

&&

.MARINE...as of 04:55 PM PST Thursday...Generally light to locally
moderate northerly winds will persist over the coastal waters
through tomorrow. Northerly winds will then increase across the
northern outer waters tomorrow afternoon as the next system
approaches. Strong northerly winds will spread southward
throughout the weekend and into early next week as the system
moves through the region. A moderate longer period northwest swell
will move across the waters through the end of the week before
another long period northwest swell arrives over the weekend.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .Tngt...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: RGass
AVIATION: W Pi
MARINE: CW

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