Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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FXUS63 KOAX 251137
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
637 AM CDT Thu Apr 25 2019

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 345 AM CDT Thu Apr 25 2019

...Those with vulnerable plants outside will want to prepare for
colder temperatures Sunday morning should readings drop in the
lower to mid 30s...

Forecast concerns this package will be the rain moving through
this morning followed by gusty northwest winds...patchy fog ahead
of the front this morning...isolated thunderstorms possible in
northeast Nebraska later this afternoon...showers and thunderstorm
chances Friday night into Saturday morning...possible wind
advisory winds Saturday...then cold temperatures Sunday morning.

The latest WSR-88D radar mosaic shows a band of rain with the
leading edge from around Lexington to Yankton. Rainfall amounts
have been variable over the last six hours mostly in the trace to
third of an inch range.

The forecast area is in the right entrance region of the jet over
the Great Lakes and toward the left front exit region of the jet
diving southeastward from Montana. This enhanced lift combined
with the h5 shortwave trough and mid level frontogenesis behind
the cold front is resulting in the band of rain. The cold front
will push across the forecast area through 18Z.

We could use the moisture as since March 1st, we are running about
an inch below normal for moisture at Omaha, however Norfolk is
about an inch above normal since March 1st.  Will maintain high
pops behind the front as the shortwave trough moves across the
forecast area this morning. Rainfall amounts should mostly vary
from a trace to 0.25".  Forecast soundings this afternoon bring
another area of saturation with isolated showers and possible
thunderstorms with trailing shortwave trough energy through early
evening. The RAP/HRRR are also picking up on this spotty
precipitation.  Highs today will be in the 60s.

Gusty northwest winds behind the front today 15 to 30kts with some
higher gusts. Surface high pressure builds in tonight with
diminishing winds. Some ground fog possible Friday morning as lows
dip into the 30s and lower 40s.

Upslope flow and lift north of the surface warm front may allow
some showers to develop Friday mainly west of the area. The lift
increases Friday night as the shortwave over the Rockies moves
into the Western High Plains and across South Dakota and Nebraska/
The organized area of rain and snow will track across South Dakota
into Minnesota with a few showers and thunderstorms across the
forecast area. Some strong storms possible with deep layer shear
50-60kts and vicinity to the surface low. This system generally
moves out of the area Saturday morning with clouds, spotty
sprinkles and cold temperatures. Highs in the 60s Friday and
50s/60s Saturday. Gusty northwest winds Saturday 20 to
30kts/potential wind advisory with higher gusts.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 345 AM CDT Thu Apr 25 2019

Surface high pressure builds in Saturday night with diminishing
winds. Lows across the forecast area are expected to drop into the
lower and mid 30s (normal lows are in the lower 40s). There is a
range in low temperatures at OMA mostly between 32 and 36 with the
GEFS around 34 for a low. The last freeze typically varies from
the 19th of April to the 15th of May from south to north across
the forecast area. The trees/plants/flowers are blooming, thus
vulnerable plants will be susceptible to frost and potentially
freezing temperatures. Should the surface high retreat quicker or
there be more clouds, this would affect the lows.

Rain chances increase as the next front approaches Sunday night
and again Tuesday with a shortwave lifting moisture over a front
well to the south of the area.

Temperatures still look to be near or below normal Sunday through
Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning)
Issued at 634 AM CDT Thu Apr 25 2019

Band of showers will move through eastern Nebraska TAF sites
through 17Z as a cold front sweeps southeast. Cigs should remain
VFR, around FL040-FL070, in the showers, but a brief MVFR vsby
could occur. Strong northwest to north winds of 15 to 25kt will
follow the front, and continue through 00Z. Clearing skies are
expected between 18Z and 00Z, leaving VFR conditions and light
north winds between 00Z and 12Z.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Zapotocny
LONG TERM...Zapotocny
AVIATION...Dergan


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