Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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843
FXUS63 KOAX 191950
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
250 PM CDT Sat Oct 19 2019

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 250 PM CDT Sat Oct 19 2019

Tonight through Sunday night:

A shortwave trough currently over WA/OR will undergo significant
amplification in response to the progression of associated mid and
upper-level wind maxima from the Pacific NW coast into the central
Rockies. The upper-air system will evolve into a closed low while
tracking through SD and NE on Sunday and Sunday night. In the low
levels, a lee cyclone will form over eastern WY tonight with
subsequent deepening forecast as it develops into southeast SD by
Sunday night. Meanwhile, a trailing cold front will advance
through eastern NE and western IA Sunday afternoon and evening.

A weak, lead perturbation has generated some mid-level convection
over central NE early this afternoon which could clip some of our
northeast NE counties this evening. While a few sprinkles are
possible, measurable precipitation chances appear low. Otherwise,
expect an increase in mid and high-level clouds late tonight into
Sunday with the approach of the primary upper-air system. Light
and variable winds will become south tonight before strengthening
considerably on Sunday. Despite the increasing south winds, low-
level moisture return will remain limited with only isolated
thunderstorms expected within the pre-frontal convective band
evolving over eastern NE on Sunday afternoon. Highs on Sunday will
be mainly in the 60s.

The band of showers and storms should shift east of our area by
late evening as the mid-level dry slot overspreads the mid MO
Valley. By late Sunday night, wrap-around light rain could begin
to affect portions of northeast NE.

Monday and Monday night:

The deep-layer cyclone over southeast SD on Monday morning will
progress northeast into the upper Great Lakes by Monday night.
Strong gradient winds on the backside of the departing system will
buffet our area on Monday with gusts of 45-55 mph possible. Periods
of wrap-around showers could affect the northern half of our area
through the day with highs in the 50s.

Both winds and precipitation chances will diminish by Monday
night.

Tuesday and Wednesday:

Mainly dry conditions are expected in the wake of the strong
cyclone lifting through the Great Lakes into Ontario, and ahead of
the next system amplifying over the northern Rockies. Highs on
Both days will be in the 50s and 60s.

Wednesday night and Thursday:

The northern Rockies disturbance will progress southeast into the
southern Plains ahead of a separate perturbation moving through
the upper MS Valley. Increased forcing for ascent associated with
those features will support at least small precipitation chances
across our area. A mix of light rain and snow remains possible
across northeast NE on Thursday morning. Highs on Thursday will be
in the 40s to lower 50s.

Thursday night into Saturday:

Another larger-scale trough is forecast to evolve over western
Canada into the Pacific Northwest with building downstream
heights across the northern and central Plains. That would suggest
dry conditions with highs in the 50s and 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1210 PM CDT Sat Oct 19 2019

Light northwest or west winds will switch to south tonight and
strengthen considerably on Sunday morning. VFR conditions will
prevail through the forecast period with mainly increasing mid and
high-level clouds late tonight into Sunday.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Mead
AVIATION...Mead



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