Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN

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FXUS64 KOHX 151652

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1052 AM CST Fri Feb 15 2019




...Winter Wx Possible Northwest Tonight...
...Significant Rainfall Next Week...

Early this morning, mostly cloudy skies were producing isolated
light sprinkles. Otherwise, it was quite mild with temperatures
in the 50s across the area. A cold front was on approach, moving
into western KY at 3 AM CST. The front will move across our
northwest counties by daybreak, and across the rest of the area
through the morning. A few very light showers will be possible
ahead of the front, but the main impact will be to limit
temperatures to mostly 40s and lower 50s today. Some areas will
record highs during the early morning hours followed by steady or
slightly falling temps. Most locations will be dry through midday
with mainly cloudy skies. For this afternoon, the surface front
will stall out just south and east of our area. A disturbance will
move eastward from the plains, spreading a wide band of rain
along the frontal zone. This will mean wet travel across the area
by dark.

As the disturbance crosses the area this evening, north winds will
be enhanced, bringing additional colder air. For most of the Mid
State, this means a very chilly, rainy Friday night. But, the air
will become cold enough for some wintry precipitation in our
northwest counties, especially around Dover and Clarksville. A
light wintry mix may include sleet, freezing rain, and a few
snowflakes. Any snow or sleet accumulations are expected to be
minor. A thin layer of ice could build up, so the main potential
impact will be slick travel, especially for elevated surfaces like
bridges. Impacts will start to develop as temperatures reach
freezing, which is expected to start around 9 PM. Scattered slick
spots could develop as far south of I-40 west of Nashville and as
far east as I-65 north of Nashville. At this time we think the
scattered slick spots can be addressed with a Special Wx
Statement and social media impacts graphics. The day shift may
consider a Winter Wx Advisory for the area.

By daybreak Saturday, precipitation will be done for the Mid
State, and any slick spots in the northwest counties will improve
quickly by 9 or 10 AM. Under a mix of clouds and sun, temperature
will be a few degrees cooler than normal, in the 40s area wide.

Another system will roll across the region Saturday night through
Sunday with scattered light showers- all liquid with no
significant impacts.

Looking ahead to Monday through Thursday, a wet pattern will be in
place. A series of systems will move across the region within
moist southwest flow aloft. The heaviest rain looks to occur
Tuesday through Wednesday evening as an inverted trough develops
across Middle Tennessee and becomes the focus for deep moisture
advection out of the Gulf of Mexico. QPF totals for next week are
significant with several inches of rainfall possible. It looks
like the heavier totals will be across the southeast half of our
area where soils are not quite as saturated as the northwest half.
Still, flooding could become a concern across the area through
next week as rain totals build. This includes potential local
flood problems as well as stream and river flooding.



Clouds have begun to lower at all TAF sites with the cold front.
Atmosphere will also moisten with widespread rain moving in to CKV
between 18 and 21Z and into BNA/MQY/CSV around or shortly after 00Z.
There is a threat of freezing rain/drizzle or even snow at CKV
overnight between 07Z and 11Z. Ceilings for the most part will
start off MVFR and become IFR to LIFR overnight. Conditions will
improve after 12Z to MVFR and back to VFR after 15-18Z.





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