Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN

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FXUS64 KOHX 301126
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
626 AM CDT Fri Jul 30 2021

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Showers and thunderstorms have developed north of the area
overnight, and are working their way towards the mid state. These
storms are ahead of a cold front and associated shortwave trough
aloft embedded in northwest flow. CAMs have some of that activity
creeping across the border this morning, but very little agreement
on coverage and intensity. Expecting the stronger convection
currently off to the northeast of the mid state to continue
southeastward, with additional development on the northern Plateau
in the next few hours. Convection northwest of the area looks to
be weakening and having a rough time moving southward. The upper
high will be off to our west and still will help keep the heat
around today, but mainly for the southern half of the area. Heat
advisory remains in effect today for the southwest as more sun as
well as staying ahead of the front will likely give that area the
warmest temps today.

The high will continue weakening as a Midwest trough develops
Saturday and brings additional chances for showers and storms
Saturday afternoon in the west, and moving through during the
overnight hours into Sunday morning. Some storms may be strong to
severe with gusty winds, but timing isnt lining up with any
diurnal support and instability falls off overnight, but if any
storm develops further west and moves into the area Saturday
evening into the early overnight hours Sunday, enough shear and
instability will be around to possibly be strong. PWAT values
remain high, so heavy rain and some isolated flooding will be
possible as well.

Lingering chances for afternoon showers and storms will persist
Monday as the broad trough is overhead, but the main trough axis
will shift eastward slightly and mainly keep precip chances in the
afternoon on the Plateau Tuesday through Friday afternoon. The
rest of the mid state looks to be dry with cooler temps thanks to
the upper trough. Upper pattern looks to weaken next weekend, but
the GFS/ECMWF keep us on the drier side. Afternoon showers and
storms may be possible, but still too soon to call and agreement
is weak with long term models as expected 9 to 10 days out.

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

An area of showers and storms will continue to impact CSV until
14Z. Otherwise, scattered showers and storms expected to develop
through the day will be covered with VCTS. Otherwise, VFR will
prevail with mainly NNW winds around 8KT.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 6 PM CDT this evening
for Bedford-Giles-Hickman-Lawrence-Lewis-Marshall-Maury-Perry-
Rutherford-Wayne-Williamson.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION......Barnwell
AVIATION........13


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