Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN

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FXUS64 KOHX 211914
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
214 PM CDT Mon Oct 21 2019

.DISCUSSION...

Cold frontal boundary is just west of the MS river at this time. Pre
frontal forcing extends well to the east with the maximum located
just east of I-65. Instabilities are rather meager and lightning is
rather sparse. Eastern most edge of rainfall is now reaching the
Plateau and the w-e movement will continue. For the upcoming 1st
period, will definitively need a late afternoon pre 1st period
group given the progressiveness that is expected. Pops will of
course be highest during that pre 1st period and will ramp down as
we move into the evening and overnight hours. Tstm chances will
also be on the downswing as well. QPF totals through Tuesday
morning will range from one 1/2 inch across the northwest, to as
much as 1 1/2 inches across portions of the Plateau.

Moving on, clearing skies will commence in our northwest as we
approach sunrise. Tuesday will bring forth a sunny sky with pleasant
and seasonal high temps. It will feel a bit cool with a 10 to 15 mph
west wind at work. The clear skies will continue through Wed nt with
seasonal temps. In fact, overnight lows will be harmless(in terms of
freezing/frost potential) with 40s expected.

In the ext fcst, models in agreement with bringing a weak cold front
through the area on Thu nt with perhaps a few showers. Afterwards,
the Euro and GFS solutions diverge quite a bit and have been doing
so for the last several runs. 1st off...the Euro brings a rather
potent storm system northeastward across MO over the weekend. This
will provide a rather widespread degree of showers and thunderstorm
activity. Meanwhile, the GFS portrays a more open wave pattern, with
some sfc cyclogenesis over the central Gulf. This pattern will keep
the moisture well south of the mid state. So, for the ext fcst,
given the uncertainty, will opt for modest pops for much of the
period, from Thu nt onward.

As for temps, numbers are looking seasonal with slightly below
average hi/lo ranges.


&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

Showers/storms expected to affect the area into the evening...
which will keep CIGs/VSBYs degraded well into the evening. Tight
gradient ahead will keeps winds gusty, while storms are likely to
do the same. Improvement will occur late this evening except at
CSV. It most likely will remain with lower CIGs/VSBYs through the
the night.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      49  67  42  69  44 /  60   0   0   0   0
Clarksville    46  65  40  70  45 /  20   0   0   0   0
Crossville     51  65  39  63  41 /  80  10   0   0   0
Columbia       49  68  41  69  43 /  60   0   0   0   0
Lawrenceburg   50  68  40  68  42 /  70   0   0   0   0
Waverly        46  65  40  69  44 /  20   0   0   0   0

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION......21
AVIATION........07


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