Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN

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FXUS64 KOHX 190455
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1155 PM CDT Thu Apr 18 2019

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Showers and a few thunderstorms are moving through a bit quicker
this evening than previously forecasted, so updated pops to push
chances through the east earlier. Models are trending a bit higher
this evening and early overnight with QPF, but radar estimates of
1.25 to 1.5 inches with the initial band so far has lined up with
consensus. If 00Z runs come in with additional QPF with the
deepening 850 mb low, will update the forecast again to account
for more rainfall. Bright banding showing up very well on radar
and is skewing radar rain estimates a bit, but western areas
behind the initial band showing around a tenth to quarter of an
inch in the previous hour. Also adjusted temps slightly since the
cooler air is moving in faster with the precip. Other than that,
forecast is on track.

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR conditions will become IFR/LIFR over the next several hours
for all mid-state terminals as we deal with the backside of this
current system. No improvement is expected until Saturday.

Winds will be relatively light for the next few hours, but as we
move through the rest of tonight and tomorrow, winds will swing
around to the northwest and become gusty. Strongest winds may be
after 00Z Sat with gusts of 25-30 kts.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION......Barnwell
AVIATION........Unger



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