


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Spokane, WA
Issued by NWS Spokane, WA
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771 FXUS66 KOTX 140842 AFDOTX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Spokane WA 142 AM PDT Mon Jul 14 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Hot, dry, and strong winds leading to elevated to critical fire weather conditions today. - Strong cold front from the north Monday delivering windy conditions. Brief damaging winds possible for the Okanogan Valley, northern mountains, and north Idaho Panhandle. - 30% chance for blowing dust on the Waterville Plateau and Moses Lake area Monday evening. - Much cooler temperatures Tuesday across Eastern Washington and North Idaho with blustery northeast winds. && .SYNOPSIS... Big weather changes will occur late on Monday as a strong cold front moves through the region from the north. The front will deliver windy conditions from the north and northwest, and critical fire weather conditions for much of Eastern Washington. This system will also deliver rain showers to the Idaho Panhandle, and a chance of showers over NE Washington. Tuesday will be cooler with breezy northeast winds. && .DISCUSSION... Monday: A potent July front will impact the Inland NW today. There are many weather hazards that we are focusing on related to strong winds. This includes: critical fire weather, tree damage and power outages, blowing dust, choppy lakes, and challenging travel conditions for high profile vehicles. Residents of the Inland NW need to use extreme caution around dry fuel beds as any new ignitions will have the potential to spread rapidly. Numerous weather highlights are in effect including red flag warnings, high winds warnings, and wind advisories. Heat advisories also remain in effect through Monday evening signifying that conditons today will remain very warm and very dry. * Winds: Winds start off Monday morning increasing early in the day from the East Slopes, across the Basin, and into North Idaho from the west and southwest. Speeds will quickly be reaching 10-15 mph with gusts to 20 mph. Around midday, northerly winds will start to come down the Okanogan Valley and spread across the mountains of northern WA through the afternoon. During this time, winds also begin shifting toward more of a northwesterly direction over the Cascades and into the Western Basin. Speeds will continue to ramp up with speeds of 15-30 mph and stronger gusts. The most critical portion of the day and winds will arrive late afternoon into the evening as convection begins to fire in southern BC and rain cooled air enhances the pressure gradient and northerly push. This is when the potential for sustained winds of 30 mph or stronger will arrive in Central WA and especially down the Okanogan Valley where gust potential is from 50 to 60 mph. Similar winds are expected to spill on to the Waterville Plateau. The lower Idaho Panhandle and portions of extreme E WA may experience a slight weakening of winds as the front is coming in from the north but near or shortly after 7PM, a strong push of northeast winds will enter North Idaho and surge southwest into NE WA. This will also be reinforced by heavier rains fall in far southwestern BC and could pack quite a punch with gusts 40 mph or locally stronger. After midnight, the combination of northern winds in Central WA and northeast winds in North Idaho and E WA will begin to consolidate and shift to all northeast winds going into Tuesday morning. All things considered, there are high chances (50-100%) chances for gusts of 40 mph or greater for most of our the northern counties of Idaho and Washington and across Central WA from Oroville to the Saddle Mountains. One area that is starting to concern me based on the latest HREF probabilities is in North Idaho and far NE WA where probabilities for gusts 45-55 mph have increased. This includes the Purcell Trench, Priest Lake Area, and Pend Oreille River Valley. * Fire Weather Concerns: The combination of strong winds, hot temperatures, and low humidity of 15 to 25 percent will create critical fire weather conditions across a majority of the Inland NW. If you are not in a red flag, it will still be elevated and these areas were left out either due to winds not being as strong or anticipation of rain late overnight (NE WA and N ID). The surge of northerly winds will usher higher humidity values overnight into Tuesday morning but fuels will be slow to react and any new starts will have the potential to spread rapidly. In a rare situation, the Okanogan Valley has been bumped up to extreme fire weather conditions. There was consideration for a PDS Red Flag (Particularly Dangerous Situation) but confidence was not high enough to reach the 50+ mph gusts for 3 or more hours. Needless to say, it will be an extremely challenging day for regional fire crews and please do your part to keep ignitions from happening. * Blowing Dust: Winds of this magnitude spreading south onto the Waterville Plateau and around the Moses Lake area combined with very dry soils is likely to kick up blowing dust. Given we are not in planting season confidence in precise amounts and impacts carries lower confidence but wind speeds support some degree of dust impacts. * Shower/Thunderstorm Potential: Several hundred joules of surface based CAPE is forecast for North Idaho and into far NE Washington Monday afternoon. The atmosphere may remain too mixed in the afternoon for cells to mature into thunderstorms noted by the HRRR and HRRR soundings but going into the evening and overnight periods, it looks more favorable for showers and t-storms to develop as the core of the upper low comes through. SPC currently has NE WA and N ID in a general thunder threat. Any lightning is a concern this time of year for new fire starts. Cells that develop should start producing wetting rains which is good news but prior to that, there is a risk for gusty outflow winds as DCAPEs start off around 800 J/kg. * Heat: The heat advisory is in place through Monday for much of the Basin, Spokane Area, and into the lower Idaho Panhandle. Temperatures will be a few degrees cooler but still nearing the century mark around Lewiston and into the Snake River Valley. Heat advisories will end at 8 PM. * : If you are camping, heading into the woods, or on lakes please take these winds seriously and use caution where you are setting up tents. Consider if there are weakened trees nearby that could come down. Lakes are going to become very choppy with wind waves, especially in the evening. Plan accordingly for your safety. Tuesday: For Tuesday, the region will be in a moderate northeast to southwest pressure gradient with blustery northeast winds. Temperatures will be cooler (70s to 80s) with relatively higher humidity values (20-30%) but still dry enough to have concern for fire weather. Any new fires will be wind driven and pushed to the southwest. Winds on Tuesday will remain in the 15 to 20 mph range with gusts around 30-35 mph. Wednesday - Sunday: Wednesday and Thursday will deliver less impacts as the system moves off to the east and weak high pressure begins to build on to the coast. Ensembles are starting to come into better agreement for another trough Sunday into Monday as high pressure blossoms upstream into the Gulf of AK. Several of the deterministic models are quite deep with the system next week and has the potential to bring periods of windy conditions as well as showers and thunderstorms. Moderate confidence for temperatures to warm Wednesday and Thursday then spread is 10+ degrees in temps thereafter with uncertainty of the next trof depth and location. /sb && .AVIATION... 06z TAFS: Breezy west to southwest winds develop through the Cascade gaps, across the Basin, and into the Idaho Panhandle Monday morning with speeds ramping up through the day and gusts 20-30 mph. Focus after 22z will be the arrival of a strong cold front from the north delivering a shift to northerly winds, especially in northern and Central WA. Winds channeling through the Okanogan Valley will be particularly strong with gusts in excess of 45 mph and sustained speeds of 30 mph or stronger. The northerly push will continue expand southward 02-06z to most terminals with speeds remaining strong between Oroville to Moses Lake. Meanwhile, a strong push of northeast winds will come in through North Idaho and spill into Northeastern WA within this 02-06z timeframe. Gusts 30-45 mph are a concern briefly then consistently 20-35 mph. This includes Sandpoint, Couer D Alene, Deer Park, and Spokane. Winds will remain elevated through the night and into Tuesday morning from the north and northeast. There will also be convection developing in North Idaho and far NE WA Monday afternoon and evening. Confidence is low for t-storms before 00z then increases 00-06z toward 30%. There is a 30-40% chance for showers and a few storms to continue 6-12z. Gusty outflow winds will be a concern near any storms Monday afternoon and evening. Skies will be hazy to smoky due to regional fires especially across the northern portions of eastern Washington into North Idaho from an active fire in southern BC. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: High confidence that VFR conditions will continue at all TAF sites through 00z. Low confidence on how smoke/haze will impact smaller airports from Omak (KOMK) to Colville (KCQV) to Sandpoint (KSZT) early Monday morning as smoke could be trapped in the morning inversions. Confidence is low to moderate for timing of showers and thunderstorms in N Idaho. Cells could begin to produce heavier downpours around Bonners Ferry Monday evening with 20% for brief MVFR conditions. /sb && .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs... Spokane 93 58 77 54 85 58 / 0 20 20 0 0 0 Coeur d`Alene 92 58 74 52 85 57 / 0 40 30 0 0 0 Pullman 90 54 77 50 83 54 / 0 10 20 10 0 0 Lewiston 101 67 87 60 92 64 / 0 0 10 10 0 0 Colville 91 46 76 42 85 49 / 10 60 30 0 0 0 Sandpoint 88 54 70 47 81 51 / 10 70 40 0 0 0 Kellogg 89 59 70 53 82 60 / 0 40 40 10 0 0 Moses Lake 96 64 84 57 91 60 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Wenatchee 92 65 86 63 92 67 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Omak 94 61 87 57 91 61 / 0 10 10 0 0 0 && .OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM PDT this evening for Lower Garfield and Asotin Counties-Moses Lake Area-Spokane Area-Upper Columbia Basin. Red Flag Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to 11 PM PDT this evening for Colville Reservation (Zone 702)-Eastern Columbia Basin -Palouse -Spokane Area (Zone 708)- Foothills of Central Washington Cascades (Zone 705)-Lower Palouse -Snake River (Zone 709)-Methow Valley (Zone 704)- Okanogan Highlands and Kettle Mountains (Zone 699)- Okanogan Valley (Zone 703)-Waterville Plateau (Zone 706)- Western Columbia Basin (Zone 707). Wind Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 11 PM PDT this evening for Northeast Mountains-Okanogan Highlands- Waterville Plateau. High Wind Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to 11 PM PDT this evening for Okanogan Valley. ID...Wind Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 11 AM PDT Tuesday for Coeur d`Alene Area-Northern Panhandle. Heat Advisory until 8 PM PDT this evening for Coeur d`Alene Area-Lewiston Area. && $$