Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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FXUS64 KOUN 190356
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1056 PM CDT Sun Aug 18 2019

.DISCUSSION...


&&

.AVIATION...
South wind and VFR conditions are expected until 192400.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 931 PM CDT Sun Aug 18 2019/

DISCUSSION...
A small cluster of showers and thunderstorms over far southwest
Oklahoma and western north Texas continues to drift east and
southeast this evening. Overall, there has been a slow decrease
in storm intensity and this should continue through the evening.
Made need to adjust POPs farther east into parts of southwest
Oklahoma and north Texas, but over the forecast for tonight looks
OK.


PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 713 PM CDT Sun Aug 18 2019/

DISCUSSION...

AVIATION...
Gusty south to Southeast wind will lose the gusts after sunset.
VFR conditions are expected. Isolated thunderstorms to the west of
KLAW this evening are expected to diminish before arriving.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 309 PM CDT Sun Aug 18 2019/

DISCUSSION...
Main impacts expected will be low rain chances early this week
increasing mid to late week, and heat Monday and Tuesday.

Although a boundary is moving into northwest Oklahoma this
evening, satellite trends suggest the airmass may be too stable to
support convection. There`s still an outside chance (especially
with as much moisture as we have in place), but will only maintain
a small area of mentionable PoPs tonight.

The ridge will build in Monday and Tuesday, resulting in more hot
and humid weather. Continuing the heat advisory through Monday and
upgrading to an excessive heat warning for much of central and
northern Oklahoma. Another heat advisory will likely be needed
Tuesday.

With abundant moisture in place, a few subtle shortwaves could be
enough to ignite some convection both Monday and Tuesday afternoons
when daytime heating is at its peak. Will keep low chance PoPs in
for northwest Oklahoma on these days.

Late Wednesday a upper level trough will dig down into the Great
Lakes region, displacing our ridge and putting us into northwest
flow. With this rain chances will increase and temperatures should
moderate into the weekend.

Day

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  77 102  78 100 /   0  10   0   0
Hobart OK         77 104  77 103 /  20   0  10   0
Wichita Falls TX  79 104  78 101 /  10   0   0   0
Gage OK           72 103  75 102 /  10  10  20  10
Ponca City OK     75  98  77  99 /  10   0   0   0
Durant OK         77 100  77  99 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Excessive Heat Warning from noon to 9 PM CDT Monday for OKZ007-
     008-012-013-018>020-024>026-029>032.

     Heat Advisory until noon CDT Monday for OKZ007-008-012-013-
     018>020-024>026-029>032.

     Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT Monday for OKZ006-011-017-023-027-
     028-037>048-050>052.

TX...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT Monday for TXZ083>090.

&&

$$

06/09/09


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