Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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635
FXUS64 KOUN 212237
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
537 PM CDT Mon Oct 21 2019

.DISCUSSION...


&&

.AVIATION...
For the 00z TAFs:

VFR conditions will prevail. Some high based cu/strato-cu should
diminish early this evenings, as will gusts from diurnal mixing.
It`s possible that gusts could continue for a very short time into
the start of the 00.21 - 00.22 TAF period, but quickly by around
01z at the latest winds will subside to less than 10 knots and
continue to be light through the TAF period.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 228 PM CDT Mon Oct 21 2019/

DISCUSSION...
A relatively quiet day Tuesday with slightly warmer temperatures
expected. Southerly winds will return by Wednesday and become breezy
ahead of the next cold front that is expected to move across the
region. The front is expected to move across the area Wednesday
afternoon/night. The breezy winds, low RH, and dry vegetation may
lead to some areas of elevated fire weather conditions Wednesday
afternoon. The cold front will bring colder, drier air to the region
on breezy northerly winds.

Problems arise with the evolution of the upper system and especially
the affects on precipitation chances. Models continue to differ on
how the upper system will evolve with the GFS continuing with a
progressive open wave that moves across the region and limits the
time frame for rain chances. Meanwhile, the Canadian and ECMWF
continues to show a closed low developing that moves slowly across
the southern Plains which would lead to a longer period of
precipitation chances. With the uncertainties, did not deviate from
the initializations much and have low PoPs continuing into part of
the weekend for now. Hopefully, models will finally come into
agreement over the next few runs, increasing confidence in what will
happen.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  68  41  70  49 /   0   0   0   0
Hobart OK         70  39  72  47 /   0   0   0   0
Wichita Falls TX  71  42  74  50 /   0   0   0   0
Gage OK           65  35  70  44 /   0   0   0   0
Ponca City OK     65  38  67  47 /   0   0   0   0
Durant OK         71  44  74  48 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

03/12/12



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