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000
FXUS64 KOUN 190943
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
443 AM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 442 AM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024

The cooler-than-average weather will continue today behind the
cold front that moved through the area yesterday. At the surface
the winds will remain north or northeasterly through tonight, but
above the surface, southerly winds will develop with isentropic
lift above the cool airmass. Showers and thunderstorms will
develop this evening across north Texas and southern Oklahoma with
precipitation expanding north while becoming more widespread in
the south. Elevated instability looks to be sufficient to support
thunderstorms, but most models show it to be too low for severe...
although the NAM is much more aggressive with developing higher
elevated instability. It will be worth seeing what the 12Z
soundings look like and watch mesoanalysis trends given this NAM
signal, but at the moment the severe weather potential looks
relatively low.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 442 AM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024

The showers and storms with the isentropic lift will continue into
Saturday and Saturday night until the mid-level trough currently
offshore in the Pacific moves east of the area. Saturday will be
cool with widespread clouds and scattered showers/storms and
Sunday will be cool as a surface ridge moves into the southern
Plains. Temperatures will begin to warm on Monday as the ridge
moves east and southerly low-level flow redevelops. Precipitation
chances redevelop Monday night as a cold front approaches from the
north, with precipitation chances lingering through Thursday with
another round of isentropic lift above the cold air mass once it
is spread through the area, then continue with the approach of an
mid-level trough mid-late week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 442 AM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024

MVFR and VFR ceilings are expected this TAF period with some mid and
high clouds also streaming across the area. Winds will generally be
from the northeast for much of the TAF period. Rain/storm chances
will begin in southern OK and north TX this evening, with chances
spreading north and increasing overnight. Highest chances will
remain generally along and south of I-40.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  65  49  56  44 /   0  60  70  40
Hobart OK         65  46  54  42 /   0  60  80  50
Wichita Falls TX  69  50  55  45 /   0  80 100  80
Gage OK           63  39  56  38 /   0  30  50  30
Ponca City OK     64  44  61  42 /   0  20  40  20
Durant OK         69  52  58  47 /   0  80  90  80

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM....26
AVIATION...25