Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS61 KPBZ 181310

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
810 AM EST Mon Feb 18 2019

Some light snow showers will linger today in the wake of a cold
front. A dry and seasonably cold Tuesday is expected before
mixed precipitation and rain return for Wednesday.


With 7am update, made some minor changes to hourly temperatures
and chance for precipitation. Previous discussion follows.

Low pressure has completed passage and cold advection is
underway across the region. The depth of the cold mixing layer
will eventually be sufficient for some snow shower development,
but building high pressure should snuff those by evening. Given
the shallow nature of the convection, problematic accumulation
is unlikely. Temperatures are expected to top out about 5 to 10
degrees below the averages.


High pressure will suppress snow showers through the Tuesday.
Expect seasonable cold to continue under zonal flow aloft.

A wintry mix, including possible freezing rain is again anticipated
for Wednesday as a warm front surges across the region in
extension fm Midwest low pres. A couple problems are emerging in
this strong warm advection regime including a period of freezing
rain for most of the area, which may linger through the day in
the dynamic cooling areas of the eastern ridges and I 80 corridor.

The initial warm surge may also generate some accumulating
snow, potential for which should eventually be hampered by warm
advection aloft/degradation of dendritic growth. Nevertheless,
a Winter Storm Watch was issued in conjunction with neighboring
WFOs for accumulating snow with the ice. This for Garrett, MD
and Ern Tucker WV. For other zones, a Hazardous Weather Outlook
mention was continued.

This system is also projected to generate decent rainfall with
an inch, to inch and a half progged over the Upper Mon and Cheat
River basins.


Development of a fairly deep Wrn CONUS trough is still projected
this week with persistent SW flow over the Upr OH Region.
Expect temperature at, or above the seasonal averages and
continued shortwave-dependent precip chcs.


IFR at BVI/FKL/DUJ is expected to transition to MVFR through the
day although some -shsn will dvlp in the cold NW boundary layer
flow, which should gust 20 to 25 kt for much of the day. Expect
VFR by this eve with diminished wind. Those condition can be
expected to persist through Tuesday eve.

Widespread restrictions with a regional wintry mix can be expected


MD...Winter Storm Watch from late Tuesday night through Wednesday
     evening for MDZ001.
WV...Winter Storm Watch from late Tuesday night through Wednesday
     evening for WVZ514.


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