Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pocatello, ID

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992
FXUS65 KPIH 242015
AFDPIH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
215 PM MDT Sat Aug 24 2019

.DISCUSSION...WV imagery indicating a shortwave embedded in a dry
zonal flow over the Northern Rockies. GFS and ECMWF keep us dry in
southeast Idaho at least through mid-week. Strong mid-level winds
will reach the surface as the boundary layer mixes out. MOS
guidance puts us solidly in a wind advisory late tomorrow morning
through around sunset. Models enhance ridging across the PAC NW
Monday through Wednesday as we keep an eye on things in the
tropical Eastern Pacific. Remnants of TS Ivo are being driven into
the back side of the upper ridge around the middle of next week.
The 12Z GFS is directing that moisture a bit to our north, but it
also supports a resurgence of monsoon moisture from the Desert
Southwest. The ECMWF does bring some enhanced moisture with the
remnants of Ivo. Neither model brings a great amount of precip
throughout the forecast period, but at this point we`ll take what
we can get. Temperatures will peak on Wednesday as the ridge axis
passes through the Great Basin. Hinsberger

&&

.AVIATION...Nearly zonal flow aloft with a trough moving through it
has started to kick up the wind already at KIDA and the other two
valley airdromes should start experiencing that at this time. The
accompanying air mass is incredibly dry and little to no cloud is
coming with it, so no TSRA/SHRA to worry about either. Wind is
mainly from mainstream directions, so only KSUN and KDIJ have cross
wind issues. Even at these locations, expect some gusty wind. Winds
increase earlier in the day Sunday, but still little to no cloud and
certainly no precipitation. Messick

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Approaching dry cold front for Sunday is ramping up
wind and warming temperatures today in the southwest flow ahead of
the front. The Red Flag warning continues to be in effect, with wind
still developing around 1500 and continuing into the evening. The
pattern shifts to the southeast, with stronger wind over the Caribou
Highlands and weaker wind over the central Idaho mountains. In fact
the lower elevations of Fire Weather Zone 413 are now at critical
thresholds, and have coordinated to include portions of this zone
into the Red Flag for Sunday. Cooler Monday and weaker wind should
end the Red Flag threat, but a return to warming and drying with
gusty afternoons and evenings could eventually bring them back
Messick

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for IDZ410-425.

Red Flag Warning from 1 PM to 9 PM MDT Sunday for IDZ410-425.

Wind Advisory from 11 AM to 9 PM MDT Sunday for IDZ051-052-054-
055-058.

Red Flag Warning from 3 PM to 9 PM MDT Sunday for IDZ413.

&&

$$



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