Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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363
FXUS62 KRAH 151935
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
335 PM EDT Tue Oct 15 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will shift offshore tonight allowing a warm front to
meander back north into central NC early Wednesday morning. A cold
front will approach the region Wednesday morning while a weak
surface low begins to develop near the Outer Banks, finally being
forced out to sea by the Cold Front Wednesday evening. Canadian High
pressure settles back in by Wednesday night, persisting overhead
through the end of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 335 PM Tuesday...

High pressure currently situated along the Mason-Dixon line will
meander off the DELMARVA coast this evening, allowing southerly flow
to gradually return to central NC. This will help to drag a
stationary front back north through the southeastern CONUS tonight,
helping to increase clouds, surface moisture, and shower chances
from SW to NE, especially after midnight. This will help to keep
overnights lows mild, bottoming out in the low to mid 50s under
mostly cloudy skies. Shower chances really increase just before
sunrise as a weak surface low begins to strengthen along or just
east of the NC Coastal Plain.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 335 PM Tuesday...

A strengthening and vertically stacked northern stream trough is
expected to rotate through the Great Lakes region early Wednesday,
dragging a cold front through the TN Valley, across the
Appalachians, and eventually through central NC Wednesday afternoon
and evening. A secondary southern stream disturbance, whose origins
tracking back to a remnants of a Pacific coastal storm, will track
along or just east of the NC Coastal Plain before ejecting further
out to sea Wednesday evening. These two systems will work in tandem
with a northern meandering warm front to introduce rather widespread
shower activity across central NC at/before daybreak on Wednesday.
In terms of QPF distribution, uncertainty remains high. With the c
coastal storm`s track continuing to trend offshore, thinking the
highest QPF amounts (0.5 - 1.25") will remain east of our CWA
boundary, primarily along the far eastern coastline. Further west, a
secondary swath of higher precipitation values will be possible
between the foothills and Triad region, while areas in-between could
could see closer to 0.25" as a dry-slot begins to setup. CAMs and
global models continue to differ in terms of location/intensity of
these precipitation gradients, so have chosen to go more
conservative with a smoothed forecast output.

Temperatures will remain rather cool tomorrow thanks to abundant
cloud cover and ongoing showers. Highs will venture into the upper
60s (northern zones) to low 70s (southern zones). With the primary
FROPA likely to slide from west to east between 18z/2pm (Triad) and
00z/8pm (I-95), expecting robust CAA and downsloping flow to kick
in, helping to really clear skies and drive overnight low temps
downwards in the middle 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM /Thursday through Tuesday/...
As of 224 PM Tuesday...

Quiet, cooler weather in store for central NC Thursday through
Saturday, and even dry weather most of Sunday.  The main weather
story during this time will be temperatures, with a cold Canadian
high settling over the Carolinas by Friday morning.  While Thursday
morning will see lows in the lower 40s, it will be even chillier
Friday morning with lows in the upper 30s possible, and even a few
patches of frost possible in the normally colder locations.
Otherwise, look for gradually moderating trend over the weekend as
the high moves off to our east.

The next noteworthy wx system will be a plume of tropical moisture
progged to lift NE out of the GOM and cross the Carolinas early
Monday morning through the day Monday.   That will provide the first
of two rain opportunities early next week.  The second rain
opportunity will be associated with a cold front progged to cross
the area on Tuesday.


&&

.AVIATION /17Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 120 PM Tuesday...

24 hour TAF period: VFR conditions continue across all TAF sites as
of 17z/1pm Tuesday, and this trend is expected to continue into
tonight. By late afternoon, upper-level clouds will begin to
overspread the region from SW to NE as an upper level disturbance
slides east towards the Appalachian Mountains. This will result in
widespread shower formation beginning pre-dawn Wednesday, allowing
CIGs/VSBYs to lower into the MVFR/IFR range along with pockets of
LIFR CATs possible with the showers. A rumble of thunder or two will
also be possible in the vicinity of KRWI/KFAY by mid-day Wednesday,
however, confidence remains too low at this point to include VCTS. A
cold front will arrive on our western doorstep toward the end of the
TAF period, allowing winds to gradually shift from southeasterly
(today/tonight), to variable (tomorrow morning), to eventually
northwesterly in nature with frequent gusts in the 20 - 25kt
range behind the boundary (tomorrow afternoon).

Looking ahead: Showers and isolated thunderstorms will gradually
come to an end by Wednesday evening, allowing CIGs/VSBYs to lift
back to VFR area wide by Wednesday night with winds gusting to 20 to
25kts in its wake. Much cooler, drier, and quieter high pressure
settles in to end the week, with the next shot at widespread sub-vfr
conditions likely to hold off until early next work-week.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JJM
NEAR TERM...JJM
SHORT TERM...JJM
LONG TERM...np
AVIATION...JJM



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