Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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FXUS61 KRLX 222153 AAA
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
National Weather Service Charleston WV
553 PM EDT Mon Jul 22 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
Cold front crosses this afternoon and tonight, taking showers
and storms with it. Cooler, drier weather to follow this week.
Increasing heat and humidity late in the week and next weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 551 PM Monday...

Increased POPs for nearly the entire area for this evening
and delayed the back edge of the precip by several hours. Front
continues to progress SSE across the CWA and plenty of post-
frontal rain is prog to persist for much of the evening
(especially across WV).

As of 240 PM Monday.

Cold front just entering the forecast area early this afternoon,
will cross the entire area through this evening, taking the
showers and thunderstorms with it.

Cloud cover and areas of rain has limited heating across much of
the forecast area east of the Ohio River. Farther west, less
rain, and breaks in the overcast, has allowed some heating
ahead of an approaching line of showers and thunderstorms, which
were along and ahead of the cold front. The opportunity for
heating ahead of this line was limited, and so is the potential
for severe weather. The storms will only weaken further east of
the Ohio River as they enter more stable air, and then further
still as they trek east after sunset.

The high moisture content along and ahead of the front will
allow for intense rainfall rates, with dual pol rainfall rates
of 1 to 2 1/2 inches per hour likely to increase a bit. This
heavy rainfall will be brief, but any repetition of downpours,
especially over pockets hit hard earlier, may cause flash
flooding, and the flood watch remains in place east of the Ohio
River, ending west to east in two segments as the front crosses
tonight.

Stratus is likely to follow the front tonight, especially east
of the Ohio River if not mainly in and near the mountains,
Models show low and mid level dry air farther west tonight, once
the front is past. Stratus will lift into stratocu and morning
cu Tuesday morning, before mixing into a scattered cu field
Tuesday afternoon, as the cooler and drier air becomes
established.

Temperatures and dew points close to the NAM and a short term
blend, and not much change from the precious forecast. Have lows
near normal tonight, and then highs below normal on Tuesday, a
noticeably cooler and drier day on tap.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 245 PM Monday...

Expansive upper ridging over the Desert Southwest will aid in
deamplifying the deep trough residing over the eastern CONUS
this week. During which time, surface high pressure will nestle
into the Ohio Valley by late Wednesday night and maintain
position through the forecast period.

Northerly flow both aloft and at the surface will invite cooler
and drier air into the area, a much needed cool down compared
to last week`s extreme heat. Expect highs to level out in the
low 80s across the lowlands and the low 70s in the mountains on
Wednesday and Thursday, then slightly rising into the mid- to
upper-80s/mid 70s on Friday as the center of the high begins to
shift northeastward.

Non-zero precip chances exist through the period, particularly
along the mountains given the loitering low level moisture,
diurnal heating, and orographic effects each afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 245 PM Monday...

Upper heights will continue to be on the rise through the
weekend as the mighty ridge out west breaks down and allows for
Gulf low level moisture to return to the midst of Central
Appalachia. Afternoon highs will return to slightly above
seasonable levels this weekend, with still a very low chance for
rain and showers. Long range guidance and ensembles suggest
this fairly dry pattern persisting until just beyond the long
term period.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 240 PM Monday...

Patchy MVFR to IFR ceilings at times give way to VFR this
afternoon in a moist air mass across the area, ahead of a cold
front crossing the Ohio Valley. Areas of rain may cause MVFR to brief
IFR visibility.

Line of showers and thunderstorms ahead of the cold front may
bring a brief period IFR conditions and gusty winds, especially
along the Ohio river, at PKB 19Z-21Z, HTS 20-22Z, CKB 21-23Z,
and CRW and EKn 22Z-00Z Tuesday. Thunderstorms are less likely
to have an impact on BKW, as the cold front arrives there later
tonight.

Areas of post rain fog tonight will be mainly MVFR, as drier
air moves in behind the front, with some IFR in the mountains.
IFR stratus will form below the frontal inversion once the front
passes tonight, especially in and near the mountains, and then
lift Tuesday morning, as the frontal inversion deepens with the
help of daytime heating. This will clear the way for a VFR
afternoon Tuesday.

Light southwest surface flow will become north northwest behind
the cold front later today and tonight, as light to moderate
southwest flow aloft become light north to northwest aloft
behind the front later this afternoon and tonight.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...


FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing and coverage of clouds and rain
will likely require AMDs into tonight. Overnight and morning fog
and stratus and stratocu may vary. Higher confidence in VFR
conditions Tuesday afternoon.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09
EDT 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
CRW CONSISTENCY  L    L    M    L    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    M    H    H    M    M    M    M    H    M    L    L
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    L    H    L    L    M    M    H    H    H    H    L
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    L    M    H    L    M    M    M    M    L    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    H    H    H    M    H    L    L    L

AFTER 00Z WEDNESDAY...
IFR possible with late night and morning river valley fog for
the middle of the week.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...Flash Flood Watch until 2 AM EDT Tuesday for WVZ024>026-033-
     034-515>526.
     Flash Flood Watch until 8 PM EDT this evening for WVZ005>011-
     013>020-027>032-039-040.
OH...None.
KY...Flash Flood Watch until 8 PM EDT this evening for KYZ105.
VA...Flash Flood Watch until 2 AM EDT Tuesday for VAZ003-004.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...26/TRM/SL
NEAR TERM...RH/TRM
SHORT TERM...MEK
LONG TERM...MEK
AVIATION...TRM



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