Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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FXUS61 KRLX 012321
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
721 PM EDT Mon Jun 1 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure departs eastward Tuesday with an approaching warm
front. Warming trend with disturbances middle of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 6 PM Monday...

Increased cloud cover significantly for this evening to account
for some rather dense CI that is spreading across the CWA.

As of 130 PM Monday...

The start of the new calendar month features weather more
typical for early spring, with temperatures struggling to
surpass 70 degrees at the time of issuance and dewpoints
dropping into the 30s. This is thanks to upper level ridging
aloft and surface high pressure overhead fending off warm
advection and moisture transport reaching Central Appalachia. A
warm front and shortwave disturbance dropping down from the
Great Lakes tonight will graze our northern territories, mainly
inflicting an increase in high cirrus for portions of the
lowlands. Forecast soundings depict a dry profile in response to
subsidence aloft, so should see little to no impacts from this
disturbance.

Surface high pressure shoves eastward on Tuesday, warranting the
return of low level southerly flow and bidding adieu to the dry
and cooler thermal profile. This warming atmosphere will lead
to temperatures achieving a 10 degree difference in afternoon
highs between today and Tuesday. Dew points will also rise into
the low 60s across the lower terrain by Tuesday afternoon. A
warm front boundary will be draped a few hundred miles shy of
the northern forecast area boundary, keeping shower potential
out of our territories through the forecast period.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 205 PM Monday...

Small chance for a shower or isold thunderstorm Tuesday
evening/night across far northeast from a weak passing
disturbance, but for the most part, doesn`t look too promising.
Otherwise, by Wednesday, a frontal boundary will slowly sag
south towards the area, with showers and thunderstorms
developing as it does so. There is a possibility a few storms
could be strong to severe, but overall greater risk lies to the
north of the CWA. Bulk of convection is expected to weaken as
the evening progresses.

Frontal boundary should stall out across or near southeast Ohio
zones late Wednesday night, before lifting back north on
Thursday, with additional showers and storms, particularly
during peak heating hours.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 210 PM Monday...

Forecast area continues to remain in an unsettled and warm and
humid pattern, with rounds of showers and storms, some with
heavy downpours at times. Front will finally push south through
the area over the weekend with slightly cooler and drier
weather in its wake.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 711 PM Monday...

VFR through the TAF period. Mid/upper level cloudiness to
prevail at times over the next 24 hours, but lack of low level
moisture should preclude CIG impacts. Some -SHRA may show up on
area radars tonight, but precip is not expected to reach the
surface (due to the low level dry air in place). Continuation of
mid/upper level cloudiness expected during the day Tues.

Weak sfc winds tonight to strengthen to SWrly 10 to 20 kts on
Tuesday, with gusts around 25 kt at times.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Wind speeds on Tuesday may be slightly
stronger than TAFs indicate.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09
EDT 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 00Z WEDNESDAY...
IFR possible in rain Wednesday night/Thursday.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SL/MEK
NEAR TERM...RH/MEK
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...RH



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