Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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356
FXUS61 KRLX 181446
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
1046 AM EDT Thu Apr 18 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry, warm trend continues into Thursday. Large storm system
brings showers and a few storms Friday, along with cooler
conditions. Storm system exits early next week with warmer
conditions returning.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1045 AM Wednesday...Alto Cu towers continue to bubble up
on visible imagery this morning. This is the result of a mid
level short wave moving across from SW to NE, and NAM forecast
soundings indicate steep 700mb - 500mb lapse rates over 7C/km.
Radar has shown some stronger returns with 40 to 50 DBZ, and
even with the very dry low level air in place, with returns like
that we are getting light rain reported in some isolated
showers. So have updated PoP to indicated a slight chance for a
showers into early this afternoon, when the short wave will then
push out of the region and drier air is progged to push in from
the SE in the mid levels.

As of 925 AM Wednesday...Radar looks a little more threatening
across NE Kentucky than what is actually hitting the ground.
However, entered the mention of sprinkles to the forecast, very
dry air in the low levels will likely make VIRGA, but some of
these higher returns may have a few drops that survive to the
ground.

As of 520 AM Wednesday...
Quick update to expand slight chance of pops this morning based
on development of isold showers and thunderstorms in association
with llj.

As of 235 AM Wednesday...

Light shower and isolated thunderstorm activity has developed
this morning in response to a passing disturbance. Dry air in
lower levels will mean that precipitation amounts will be light.
Bulk of shower activity will decrease later this morning, with
mainly dry, warm and windy conditions taking hold out ahead of a
developing strong low pressure system. There is concern in
enhanced fire danger conditions this afternoon with gusty winds
developing during peak heating hours, and dry air mixing down
towards the surface. Fuels are also generally dry, in the 7-8%
range. Although red flag conditions are not expected, anticipate
the need for a special weather statement for enhanced fire
danger today. Based on coordination with surrounding offices
however, the decision has been made to coordinate this produce
with forestry partners before issuance. Will highlight in the
HWO for now.

Chances for precipitation will increase across the area later
today as the low lifts north into the region. Heaviest
precipitation during the end of the period will be across
western zones, with chances increasing towards daybreak as the
low continues to approach.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 248 AM Thursday...

Some wrenches have been thrown into the forecast machine for
this forecast package as all 00z guidance suites have trended
slower with the progression of the upcoming storm system. A band
of stronger forcing is prog to move across the CWA during the
day Friday with a broken line of convection now expected to
develop by late morning across roughly the western CWA...and
then slowly shift east during the afternoon. If enough diurnal
warming can occur, then an isolated strong to severe storm may
occur during the day. A Marginal Risk of severe weather has been
expanded with the 06z Outlook to now cover most of the CWA.
This should just be a low end severe weather threat, but a few
hail stones and locally strong wind gusts may occur with the
stronger convection. Have broadbrushed POPs some to account for
guidance variability, but there will likely be some prolonged
periods of dry conditions on Friday.

Scattered light showers are then expected Friday night and
Saturday as the parent H5 and H25 low slowly move across the
area. Have delayed exit of precip for late Sat/Sat night given
expected slower progression of the storm system.

Temps Friday will be strongly dependent on timing of the precip.
Have increased temps for the eastern 2/3 of the CWA. Still
expecting a cool/dreary day on Saturday with a notable warming
trend beginning Sunday.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 259 AM Thursday...

Some messy mid/upper level ridging tries to build into the area
early next work week, resulting in another round of much warmer
conditions. Low end chances of precip will be common for much of
the first half of the work week (especially the northern half of
the CWA) where ridging should be the weakest. Better chances of
precip are currently expected to return to the area by late in
the forecast period.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 630 AM Thursday...

Isolated showers and thunderstorms through 16Z, with brief
MVFR restrictions possible. Otherwise, mainly VFR conditions
through the period. Low level wind shear expected through 14Z.
Southerly winds will increase after 14Z, with gusty winds taking
hold. Gusts in the lower to mid 20 kts across the lowlands and
mid 20 to lower 30 kts across mountains. Gusts will decrease
after 23Z, with the possibility of llws developing again
tonight.

Showers developing across southeast Ohio and ne KY
towards the end of the period, after 08Z, with brief MVFR
conditions possible.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Wind gusts could be stronger than currently
predicted on Thursday. Precipitation and associated restrictions
could develop across the area faster than currently forecast
Friday morning.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02
EDT 1HRLY       11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z FRIDAY...
IFR possible in showers and thunderstorms Friday, with
additional brief IFR in showers over the weekend.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RH/SL
NEAR TERM...MPK/SL
SHORT TERM...RH
LONG TERM...RH
AVIATION...SL



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