Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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FXUS61 KRLX 191717
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
117 PM EDT Thu Sep 19 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
Unseasonably warm and dry weather persists through the weekend.
Weak cold front crosses Monday into Monday night. High pressure
Tuesday and Wednesday. Another cold front approaches Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 1200 PM Thursday...

Patchy mountain valley fog possible tonight, with light winds
expected. Elsewhere, little fog development expected, although
cant rule out areas along rivers. Friday, continued dry under
the influence of high pressure with light winds. Did elect to
bump up temperatures slightly from blend of models, based on
building heights and continued dry/sunny air mass in place.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 222 AM Thursday...

Dry spell continues under surface high pressure through the
weekend. A slight warming trend is expected into the weekend.
Since no rain has fallen during the last two weeks, soils are
very dry and vegetation will begin to suffer. The outlook for
the next few weeks calls dry and above normal temperatures
conditions.

Although plenty of sunshine will provide enough heating, the
atmosphere will remain very dry aloft to allow only an isolated
shower during the afternoon hours.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 222 AM Thursday...

Dry and warm conditions will continue Sunday. With an increase
in winds, low humidity and hot temperatures, a threat for
enhanced fire danger day could be expected. However, Red Flag
conditions are not expected.

Models suggest a weak, moist-starved cold front crosses Monday
into Monday night to provide some relieve in precipitation.
However, rainfall amounts will not be enough to alleviate the
dry spell.

Another cold front approaches Thursday for another opportunity
to receive some rain.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 115 PM Thursday...

VFR conditions with light surface winds through 08Z when patchy
dense mountain valley fog is expected to develop. Expect brief
IFR conditions in vcnty of fog. Any fog will dissipate after 14Z
with a return of VFR conditions area wide with light surface
winds.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Fog may not materialize in deeper valleys
tonight.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04
EDT 1HRLY       13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z FRIDAY...
Early morning river valley fog possible each morning, especially
at EKN.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SL/RG
NEAR TERM...SL
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...SL


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