Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 301119

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
619 AM CDT Fri Jul 30 2021

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 303 AM CDT Fri Jul 30 2021

Heat continues today, very similar to yesterday. No changes to
heat warnings and advisories for today. Will see maximum heat
index values of 100-110 across the entire area.

Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue to
be possible across the northeastern and eastern CWA through this
evening as a front sits over the area. Some of those storms could
be strong to possible severe with small hail and gusty winds, but
most will remain weak.

Could see some linger convection across central MO early in the
night, but the front will lift north of the area tonight.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 303 AM CDT Fri Jul 30 2021

Main impacts in the long term is lingering heat issues Saturday
and thunderstorms with a low end severe and flooding risk later
Saturday into early Sunday.

Heat headlines continue through Saturday for much of the area.
Lowest confidence is toward central MO where morning and early
afternoon convection and cloud cover is more uncertain. Maximum
heat index values are forecast to be 100-110, except toward
central MO where it should less than 100.

Model continue to suggest that a thunderstorm complex will move NE
of the area Saturday morning into the afternoon, potentially
bringing some convection to parts of our central MO counties. The
best chances for showers and thunderstorms will be Saturday
evening into early Sunday as the front moves through the area.
With ample moisture in place and a slow moving front, isolated
flooding will be possible, but it will take quite a bit of rain
due to recent dry conditions. Severe chances will be marginal in
the evening and early overnight with moderate MLCAPE values of
1,500-2,500 J/kg and effective shear of 25-35 kts.

Exactly how fast precip exits south of the area on Sunday is
uncertain given model difference in frontal progression. The
afternoon and evening look dry for the most part. Temperatures
will be noticeably cooler Sunday with highs in the mid 80s, but it
will still be somewhat humid. Lower humidity (afternoon dew points
in the upper 50s to mid 60s) arrives Monday and continues through
much or all of next week. Highs will be in the low to mid 80s
Monday and gradually warm 2-4 degrees through the week. There is
potential for that warming trend to be greater if an upper ridge
can make it farther into the area later in the week.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
Issued at 616 AM CDT Fri Jul 30 2021

VFR conditions and light winds will continue over the next 24
hours, although some light, shallow fog will be observed
temporarily at KJLN this morning.

As an outlook, expect VFR conditions into Saturday afternoon. A
cold front will move through late Saturday and Saturday night,
bringing showers and thunderstorms and reduced flight categories.
Precip and clouds will clear from north to south late Saturday
night into Sunday.


MO...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for MOZ056>058-069>071-

     Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 9 PM CDT Saturday for MOZ055-067>070-

     Excessive Heat Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for MOZ055-

     Excessive Heat Warning from 10 AM to 9 PM CDT Saturday for

KS...Excessive Heat Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for KSZ073-

     Excessive Heat Warning from 10 AM to 9 PM CDT Saturday for



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