Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
FXUS63 KSGF 212237

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
537 PM CDT Sun Apr 21 2019

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 208 PM CDT Sun Apr 21 2019

Low pressure will move to the northeast across the plains and
begin to push a cold front towards the region this evening and
through the overnight hours. Breezy winds will continue ahead of
the front as the surface pressure gradient remains.

The surface front will remain west of the region into Monday with
some showers and maybe and isolated thunderstorms developing in
the warm sector ahead of the front during the day Monday. With
southerly winds and warm air advection continuing, temperatures
will again be in the 70s to around 80 degrees Monday afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 208 PM CDT Sun Apr 21 2019

The cold front will begin to push into the region Monday evening
into Monday night. Showers and scattered thunderstorms will
develop mainly along and behind the cold front as it pushes
through the Ozarks Monday night into Tuesday morning. Models have
some instability in place ahead of the front, but shear looks
lacking as the best low level jet exits to the east of the region
in advance of the fronts arrival. This will result in more
general thunderstorms development, though a strong storm or two
may occur. No severe weather is expected.

Tee cold front then looks as though it will stall across Kentucky
into the Missouri Bootheel region and southwest into the Red
River Valley. This will occur as an upper level trough digs into
the southwestern CONUS and a few short waves swing out of the
trough and ride along the stalled front. This will allow for
isolated to scattered shower and thunderstorm chances through mid
week before a surface low begins to lift out of the southern
plains Late Wednesday night into Thursday.

Showers and storms will impact areas mainly along and south of
I-44 through the day Thursday before the system shifts east of
the region.

High pressure will then settle of r the area Friday into early
Saturday when another cold front is expected to move through the
area Saturday afternoon.

Overall, the chances for severe weather with any of the system
through this coming week look limited at best.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 532 PM CDT Sun Apr 21 2019

VFR conditions will continue through tonight with increasing high
clouds. Surface winds will remain brisk out of the south with low
level wind shear conditions developing around Joplin.

Ceilings will then lower on Monday with MVFR expected from the
late morning into the afternoon around Joplin. VFR is expected to
continue at Springfield and Branson, however MVFR ceilings will
come fairly close to the Springfield aerodrome.

Surface winds will remain brisk out of the south on Monday with
gusts over 20 knots.




AVIATION...Schaumann is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.