Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 191914

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
214 PM CDT Sat Oct 19 2019

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 141 PM CDT Sat Oct 19 2019

Shortwave energy has resulting in showers and an occasional
isolated rumble of thunder. This will diminish and exit easy by

Attention then turns to fog potential tonight. Fog appears likely,
with dense fog expected across much of the area.

Fog linger for a while Sunday morning, before southerly flow and
decreasing clouds allows temps to climb into the low to mid 70s.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 141 PM CDT Sat Oct 19 2019

A strong system impacting the region will bring showers and
thunderstorms to the area starting late Sunday evening and, for
the most part, exiting easy by Monday afternoon. Continue to think
the SPC marginal risk is reasonable given very high shear, but
very low CAPE environment. SREF plumes suggest MLCAPE most likely
below 500 J/kg, but if greater instability can be realized that
would increase the severe threat. Only elevated convection is
expected given strength of the inversion. Most likely hazard
would be locally damaging winds.

Highs will be in the 60s behind the cold front Mon and Tue,
warming slightly to around 70 for Wed. Another system will bring
chances for rain Thursday into Friday, along with much cooler
conditions. Highs on Friday are forecast to be in the low to mid


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1226 PM CDT Sat Oct 19 2019

After ongoing showers near KSGF exit the area, attention will turn
to fog developing across the entire area tonight. Expect LIFR
conditions at all sites, with potential for VLIFR conditions at
KSGF and KJLN. Conditions will probably be slow to improve Sunday




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