Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Diego, CA

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662
FXUS66 KSGX 152145
AFDSGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Diego CA
145 PM PST Fri Feb 15 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
A series of low pressure systems will bring showers this evening,
Saturday night and again Sunday. The coldest and strongest of
these systems will be the one on Sunday with widespread showers
and snow levels as low as 3000 feet. Monday through Wednesday will
be dry but cold. Another storm system should bring more
precipitation Thursday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

Enjoy the break from the showers now because they`re coming in
this afternoon and evening again. A broad trough of low pressure
continues over the West Coast and embedded shortwaves rotating
within this trough will continue to bring episodes of precipitation
and wind this weekend. Wave number one arrives this afternoon and
evening. Precipitation amounts a tenth to a quarter inch in the
lowlands, and up to about a half inch in the mountains. Snow level
drops to 5,000 feet. On late Saturday wave number two arrives but
less than a quarter inch is expected and snow level down to 4,000
feet or so. On Sunday wave number three is actually the final
lobe of the massive trough, a cold front that has more energy and
an even lower snow level down to 3,000 feet. Sunday precip amounts
will be a quarter to a half inch for most areas, and maybe up to
one inch in the mountains of San Diego County. All three waves
will come in northwest flow, which favors San Diego County for
harvesting the most precip. Total snowfall through the weekend
will accumulate above 4,000 feet with about a foot at bases of ski
resorts and up to about 20 inches above 8,000 feet. Strong winds
will be mostly on ridgetops and adjacent desert slopes where top
gusts at the windiest spots will exceed 60 mph. Monday and Tuesday
promise fair and dry weather, but rather chilly behind Sunday`s
cold front in cold northerly flow. The big western trough never
goes away and it develops the next trough to come down the West
Coast during the middle of the week. Some agreement in models are
showing Thursday to be the day. Of course there is less certainty
for timing and precip amounts for that Thursday system, but it
looks cold for more showers and decent mountain snow.

&&

.AVIATION...
152130Z...Isolated -SHRA will develop today, with local BKN-OVC cigs
2000-3000 ft MSL. SHRA will become more widespread this evening with
CIGS lowering to 2000-2500 ft MSL and VIS 2-4 SM in heavier showers.
Terrain will be obscured at times. Otherwise, SCT-BKN clouds 4000-
7000 ft MSL through the period.

&&

.MARINE...
West-northwest winds will increase this evening and continue through
Monday morning, with strongest gusts to 30 kt possible Saturday and
Sunday evenings. A combination of steep wind waves and a mix of
westerly swells will result in choppy seas. A Small Craft Advisory
is in effect from 7 PM this evening through 10 AM Monday. Winds and
waves will lower through the day Monday.

&&

.BEACHES...
Elevated surf of 3 to 6 ft will continue through Saturday due to a
short period west swell from 260 degrees. A new west-northwest swell
of around 10-12 FT/8-9 sec from 290 degrees will generate larger
surf late Saturday into Sunday, mainly in southern San Diego County
where sets of around 8 FT possible. A Beach Hazards Statement
remains in effect for the elevated surf and strong rip currents
through Sunday afternoon.

&&

.SKYWARN...
Skywarn activation is not requested. However weather spotters are
encouraged to report significant weather conditions.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Winter Weather Advisory until 2 AM PST Monday for Riverside
     County Mountains-San Bernardino County Mountains-San Diego
     County Mountains.

     Beach Hazards Statement through Sunday afternoon for Orange
     County Coastal Areas-San Diego County Coastal Areas.

PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 10 AM PST Monday
     for Coastal Waters from San Mateo Point to the Mexican
     Border and out to 30 nm-Waters from San Mateo point to the
     Mexican Border Extending 30 to 60 nm out including San
     Clemente Island.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MM
AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...JJT



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