Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS62 KTAE 241724

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
124 PM EDT Sat Aug 24 2019

[Through 18Z Sunday]

A few SHRA are beginning to develop across the ABY to VLD area.
Best chance for TSRA this afternoon will be from DHN to ABY to VLD
and have included tempo groups for those sites. While TSRA cannot
be ruled out at the other sites, chances are too low to mention in
the TAFs at this time. There is some hint of lower cigs (IFR) for
tomorrow morning across the DHN to ABY to VLD area and will have
to keep an eye on future guidance to see how things trends.



.NEAR TERM [Through Today]...

The FL peninsula is wedged between two upper level ridges in the
Gulf and western Atlantic, with northerly-to-northwesterly flow
aloft over our region. There is some dry air east of the western
Panhandle that should keep PoPs low for that area. PoPs generally
increase northward from the Gulf coast, with the highest chances
in southwest GA. High temps are forecast to be in the low 90s,
with slightly cooler values along the coast. Heat indices will
also range between 100 and 105F.

.SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Monday]...

Zonal flow over the area tonight will become more amplified
beginning Sunday as a shortwave trough moves through the central
Plains into the eastern CONUS. An inverted surface trough //Invest
98L// will lie off the east coast with a weak boundary to our
north and surface high pressure over the central Gulf of Mexico.
Deep tropical moisture will continue to advect into the area with
PWATs of 2 to 2.3 inches. Good surface convergence along with some
large scale lift with the deepening trough will lead to good
chances of rain this period. Afternoon highs will be in the upper
80s to lower 90s with heat indices around 100 degrees.

.LONG TERM [Monday Night Through Saturday]...

Good rain chances continue into the long term. Two shortwave
troughs will affect the area into late next week with a cold front
to push in during the Wednesday-Thursday timeframe then stall in
the northern Gulf. A strong tropical wave will move into the
eastern Gulf Friday along with strong western Atlantic high
setting as well. This will set up deep southeasterly flow between
these two features with a renewed transport of deep tropical
moisture into the area and increasing rain chances.


Light winds and low seas will persist through the weekend into
early next week. A slight uptick in winds and seas is expected
towards midweek.


Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected each afternoon
through the weekend. Patchy fog is possible in the early morning
hours. Otherwise no fire weather concerns.


Isolated storms are expected today which will allow elevated
rivers over the eastern Big Bend to continue to subside. Shower
and thunderstorm coverage will increase early next week as deep
tropical moisture returns. Locally heavy rains are likely each day
next week but widespread flooding is not anticipated at this


Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.



Tallahassee   75  92  73  90  73 /  40  60  60  60  20
Panama City   77  89  75  87  76 /  20  50  40  40  40
Dothan        73  89  72  87  72 /  50  70  70  70  40
Albany        74  87  73  88  73 /  50  50  60  70  40
Valdosta      74  89  72  89  72 /  50  60  50  60  40
Cross City    75  92  74  90  74 /  30  50  50  40  20
Apalachicola  78  89  77  87  76 /  30  40  30  40  30




LONG TERM...Scholl
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