Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS62 KTAE 180545
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
1245 AM EST Mon Feb 18 2019

.MARINE...

Marine Dense fog Advisory for the coastal waters out to around 20
nautical miles tonight into Monday morning. The fog will dissipate
Monday late morning into the early afternoon with the passage of
a cold front.

Offshore winds behind this front will increase to advisory levels
at times on Monday afternoon and continue into Tuesday. Winds and
seas will begin to decrease on Wednesday.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [1230 AM EST]...

.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...

19 UTC surface analysis shows the cold front has advanced into the
Lower Mississippi River Valley and extends from Eastern
Mississippi down into Western Louisiana. Moderate southerly flow
ahead of this front continues to increase low level moisture
across our region, and has even led to some scattered showers
developing over the last hour.

Overnight, the cold front will continue to advance eastward toward
the region. With extensive low level moisture, expect another
round of low clouds and fog to develop in advance of the front.
Nearly all of the guidance keeps any rain chances off to the west
of the region til 06z, at which point rain will begin to move into
Southeast Alabama and perhaps portions of the Florida Panhandle.

Given that fog was not especially widespread last night, will let
the oncoming shift evaluate the need for any land or marine dense
fog advisories. The greatest risk area will be around Apalachee
Bay.


.SHORT TERM [Monday Through Tuesday Night]...

The short term period begins with a cold front moving through the
forecast area. With deep layer forcing decreasing with the
eastward advance of the cold front, rain chances will also
decrease with time throughout the day on Monday. The boundary is
expected to stall across the southern half of the forecast area.
Some cooler air will make it into our northern zones, but
significantly cooler temperatures are not expected.

As ridging aloft over the Bahamas begins to amplify on Tuesday and
the next trough begins to move eastward out of the SW CONUS,
surface cyclogenesis will begin over the Western Gulf, and start
to lift the stalled surface boundary across our region back
northward as a warm front on Tuesday afternoon with a few showers
possible.

With the boundary lifting well north of the region on Tuesday
night, a return to warm, humid and foggy conditions can be
expected at the end of the period and then continuing into the
long term.

Outside of high temperatures on Monday, temperatures throughout
the short term period will be well above normal - particularly
through the end of the period.


.LONG TERM [Wednesday Through Sunday]...

An upper level ridge over the Atlantic will maintain
southwesterly flow and abundant moisture at the surface across the
entire region, which will keep temperatures well above normal for
this time of the year. The aforementioned upper level ridge will
prevent disturbances that will develop over the western Gulf of
Mexico from propagating eastward over our CWA, which will keep
most PoP chances to the north and west of the CWA. The best chance
for PoPs will be in our northern and western portions of our CWA
as disturbances riding over the upper level ridge may provide an
isolated heavy shower or thunderstorm. The bulk of the
precipitation associated with these disturbances will remain
across the MS, northern AL, northern GA, and TN valley.


.AVIATION...
[Through 06Z Tuesday]

LIFR ceilings in place at ECP and TLH, IFR at DHN, and MVFR at
ABY and VLD at the beginning of the TAF period. Expect ceilings
at TLH to temporarily become IFR late tonight, w/ temporary MVFR
at DHN. Expect ABY to maintain MVFR tonight, while VLD lowers to
IFR. A cold front will sweep across the terminals in the 10-15Z
time frame, with southerly winds veering to the north-northwest.
Expect gradual improvement in ceilings to MVFR mid-late morning,
with VFR this afternoon.


.FIRE WEATHER...

No red flag conditions are expected over the next several days.


.HYDROLOGY...

Strong ridging will force storm systems over the next few days to
the north of the region. This will keep any threat for locally
heavy rain well to the north of our region over the Tennessee
River Valley. While the bulk of this heavy rain over the next
several days should miss the Chattahoochee River across Nrn
Georgia, some rainfall into this basin could lead to elevated
river levels within our portion of the Chattahoochee (and
Apalachicola River) in the next few days.


.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   71  56  70  59  77 /  50  10  20  20  30
Panama City   67  57  69  63  73 /  40  20  20   0  20
Dothan        61  52  59  55  76 /  40  10  40  30  30
Albany        63  52  58  53  74 /  50  10  30  40  40
Valdosta      71  54  66  57  78 /  50  10  20  30  30
Cross City    78  59  74  61  79 /  40  20  10  20  20
Apalachicola  70  57  67  62  71 /  40  20  10   0  20

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...Dense Fog Advisory until 1 PM EST /noon CST/ this afternoon for
     Apalachee Bay or Coastal Waters From Keaton Beach to
     Ochlockonee River FL out to 20 Nm-Coastal Waters From
     Ochlockonee River to Apalachicola Fl out to 20 Nm-Coastal
     waters from Mexico Beach to Apalachicola FL out 20 NM.

     Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST Monday for Coastal waters from
     Mexico Beach to Okaloosa Walton County Line FL out 20 NM.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Godsey
SHORT TERM...Godsey
LONG TERM...Bunker
AVIATION...LF
MARINE...LF
FIRE WEATHER...Scholl
HYDROLOGY...Godsey


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