Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS62 KTAE 110742
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
242 AM EST Wed Dec 11 2019

.NEAR TERM [Through Today]...

An overrunning regime will set up west of the cold front, aided
by a stout mid-level shortwave traversing the area. Additional
showers are likely today near the Flint and Apalachicola river
corridors and points west. Thunder is not expected as elevated
instability is lacking. Much cooler compared to Tuesday with high
temperatures in the mid 50s to mid 60s, a few degrees below
normal. It`ll feel even cooler given considerable cloudiness and
occasional northerly wind gusts around 20 mph.

.SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Saturday]...

The main concern is a period of heavier rainfall and thunderstorm
potential Friday and Friday night.

A general overrunning regime is maintained through Thursday night
with considerable cloudiness and a chance of showers. It will
remain cool with elevated north to northeast winds in place, and
high temperatures in the mid 50s to mid 60s.

A negatively tilted shortwave trough moves through the TN Valley
on Friday. Additional disorganized shortwave energy over the Gulf
of Mexico will advect ahead of the greater long wave trough axis.
Model solutions continue to struggle with resolving the evolution
of low pressure development, in terms of location and strength,
with substantial convective feedback noted in the mass fields.

Given high pressure wedged southward into the area, it appears as
though a warm front initially over the Gulf of Mexico will
struggle to move northward. This will be key in terms of any
severe weather potential. If the warm front can lift northward
through the area, an isolated severe weather threat could
materialize, and this is plausible east of the Flint River and
south of I-10. The main concern is the potential for an isolated
damaging wind gust or a brief, weak tornado.

While confidence in severe weather is low, it`s high for a period
of heavy rainfall, with the potential for amounts of 1-2 inches.

.LONG TERM [Saturday Night Through Wednesday]...

Beyond this Friday and Saturday`s system, a brief dry period
through the later half of the weekend and early next week is
expected ahead of the next system that will impact the area on
Monday night and Tuesday. Currently, confidence is low on the
impacts and rain totals expected with this system.

&&

.AVIATION...
[Through 06Z Thursday]

Conditions will improve to VFR across the TAF sites by 12Z in the
wake of a cold front. Thereafter expect VFR conditions to continue
through the TAF period. North winds will remain elevated w/ speeds
around 10 knots occasionally gusting to around 20 knots.

&&

.MARINE...

North to northeasterly winds in the wake of a cold frontal
passage will remain elevated into Thursday night. A Small Craft
Advisory remains in effect for the waters east of the Ochlocknee
River through Thursday morning and for the remainder of the waters
into Thursday night. Isolated  gale force gusts are possible
across the waters west of Mexico Beach and beyond 20 nautical
miles this evening. Wave heights west of the Ochlocknee River
will also approach 8 feet at times. A low pressure system could
lead to cautionary conditions late Friday into Saturday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Considerable cloudiness and a chance of showers over the next
couple of days with below average temperatures in the wake of a
cold frontal passage. Relative humidity values will drop this
afternoon into the 30 to 40 percent range northwest of the Flint
River and I-10. Transport winds will remain elevated out of the
north to northeast around 20 knots through Thursday. This will
contribute to high dispersions near the I-10 corridor this
afternoon, otherwise hazardous fire weather conditions are not
expected. Patchy fog is possible early this morning in the
southeast Florida Big Bend.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

Rainfall through Thursday will be light with amounts generally
under one-half an inch. A period of heavier rainfall is likely
Thursday night and Friday w/the potential for 1-2 inch amounts.
At this time, flooding is not a concern given dry antecedent.
conditions. Additional rainfall is likely during the early to
middle part of next week with another cold frontal passage.


&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   63  46  65  52  68 /  30  30  30  70  70
Panama City   60  48  63  54  69 /  40  30  40  70  70
Dothan        58  43  56  47  61 /  40  20  40  80  70
Albany        60  44  57  47  61 /  30  20  40  80  80
Valdosta      64  46  64  52  67 /  20  20  30  60  70
Cross City    71  51  71  57  72 /  20  20  20  40  60
Apalachicola  63  50  65  56  69 /  40  30  30  70  80

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk until 1 AM EST /midnight CST/ early this
     morning for Coastal Bay-Coastal Gulf-South Walton.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM this morning to 1 AM EST Friday
     for Apalachee Bay or Coastal Waters From Keaton Beach to
     Ochlockonee River FL out to 20 Nm-Coastal Waters From
     Ochlockonee River to Apalachicola Fl out to 20 Nm-Coastal
     waters from Suwannee River to Keaton Beach FL out 20 NM-
     Waters from Suwannee River to Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60
     NM.

     Small Craft Advisory until midnight CST Thursday night for
     Coastal waters from Mexico Beach to Apalachicola FL out 20
     NM-Coastal waters from Mexico Beach to Okaloosa Walton
     County Line FL out 20 NM-Waters from Apalachicola to Mexico
     Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Mexico Beach to
     Okaloosa Walton County Line FL from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...LF
SHORT TERM...LF
LONG TERM...Bunker
AVIATION...LF
MARINE...LF
FIRE WEATHER...LF
HYDROLOGY...LF


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