Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS62 KTAE 260833
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
433 AM EDT Fri Apr 26 2019

.UPDATE...

Patchy fog was developing early this morning mainly west of the
Flint and Apalachicola Rivers, where skies have cleared and winds
remain light. The fog could be locally dense until around 8 AM,
when west-northwest winds begin to increase with the passage of
a cold front. Updated the forecast to reflect this, and if the
fog becomes more widespread/dense, a Special Weather Statement
or Dense Fog Advisory may be needed.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [317 AM EDT]...

.NEAR TERM [Through Today]...

A cold front will gradually move eastward across the region early
this morning. Thundershowers mainly east of a line from roughly
Valdosta to Apalachicola will gradually subside. Cannot rule out
localized gusty winds with this activity, however the threat of
severe weather is decreasing, and will be marginal at best. After
mid-morning, expect a gradual clearing trend as northwest flow
introduces subsidence in the column, ushering in a much drier air
mass. The mixed layer will extend up to around 900 hPa today,
and based on winds within this layer, expect gusts around 20 to
25 mph at times. High temperatures will range from the upper 70s
to lower 80s, with noticeably less humidity!


.SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Sunday]...

The upper level pattern will deamplify tonight as the trough lifts
away to the northeast. Zonal flow will be in place for the weekend.
Surface high pressure will build eastward across the Deep South
through the period. The result will dry weather and be seasonal
temperatures. Look for lows mainly in the lower to mid 50s (warmer
near the coast) and highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s.


.LONG TERM [Sunday Night Through Friday]...

As an upper trough deepens out west, deep- layer ridging will
occur over the Southeast. The surface ridge will begin to weaken
by midweek with the upper ridge sliding southeastward. Some weak
return flow will allow slight to low chances of showers and storms
to return to the forecast for Wednesday and Thursday.
Temperatures will be above normal through the period with highs in
the upper 80s inland, lower 80s near the coast. Morning lows will
be in the mid to upper 60s.


.AVIATION...
[Through 06Z Saturday]

Thunderstorms will move east of VLD by 08Z. MVFR CIGs are likely
overnight and in the morning hours. Brief periods of IFR
conditions are possible. VFR conditions will return in the late
morning hours. Southerly winds will veer to a more westerly
direction by daybreak, and increase, with gusts around 20 kt
expected through the day.


.MARINE...

Moderate northwest winds will shift to the east and weaken by
Saturday with light winds and low seas for the most part into the
middle of the week.


.FIRE WEATHER...

Thundershowers are possible across the eastern big bend into the
I-75 corridor of Georgia early this morning, followed by much
drier conditions the remainder today and especially on Saturday.
Transport winds around 25 mph today will lead to high dispersions
across much of the area. Despite the high transport winds,
relative humidity values should remain above 30 percent. On
Saturday, relative humidity levels will dip into the low to mid
20s during the afternoon, but transport winds will be less than 10
mph. Therefore, red flag conditions are not expected today or
Saturday.


.HYDROLOGY...

Storm-total rainfall was generally 1-1.5 inches with some higher
amounts around 2 inches near the coast. The Apalachicola River at
Blountstown will drop below flood stage this afternoon. The
Ochlockonee River in GA will crest near or just above action stage
from Saturday through Monday.


.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   83  53  83  52  84 /  10   0   0   0   0
Panama City   78  57  76  58  78 /   0   0   0   0   0
Dothan        79  51  79  53  81 /   0   0   0   0  10
Albany        80  53  80  54  82 /   0   0   0   0   0
Valdosta      83  52  82  53  85 /  20   0   0   0   0
Cross City    83  54  83  55  84 /  30   0   0   0   0
Apalachicola  80  57  76  56  78 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for Coastal Bay-
     Coastal Gulf-South Walton.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...LF
NEAR TERM...LF
SHORT TERM...Wool
LONG TERM...Wool
AVIATION...LF
MARINE...Wool
FIRE WEATHER...LF
HYDROLOGY...Wool


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