677
FXUS62 KTBW 091856
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
256 PM EDT Thu May 9 2024

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 253 PM EDT Thu May 9 2024

The big story today will once again be the heat. Highs in the
interior will once again be near records in the mid to upper 90`s. A
squall line currently in Middle Georgia is expected to continue
to head southeast into North Florida. This line could clip parts
of Levy County this evening where a stray strong storm or two
cannot be ruled out.

As we go into our Friday the cold front that is currently starting
to push into the southeast will start to head our way. The front
itself will be weakening as it heads towards us. This means the
showers and storms that is associated with it will also be
weakening. However we can not rule out a stronger storm or two north
of I-4 in the late afternoon and evening hours. By the time the
line reaches Tampa most of the shower activity will be gone and
shower activity will be very limited south of I-4. The front will
dry us out for our weekend. Since it is May in Florida we won`t be
see to much cold air with it, but we will have one pleasant
morning in the 60`s on Sunday before we quickly warm up around 90
degrees in the afternoon.

Starting next week moisture will quickly return resulting in some
isolated seabreeze thunderstorms on Monday. Our next system will be
heading our way on Tuesday and Wednesday which should increase
shower chances. Models are still a little all over the place with
timing and exactly how much rain we can expect.


&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 253 PM EDT Thu May 9 2024

VFR conditions expected through the daytime hours. However, MVFR
and IFR CIGS will be possible overnight as models are showing a
lower cloud deck. Winds will start to increase late in the TAF
period in response to a cold front that will be heading out way.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 253 PM EDT Thu May 9 2024

Wind will continue to be out of the southern direction for
the rest of our work week and generally below 15 knots. A front will
come through late in the day on Friday which could produce a few
showers in our northern waters. After that winds will shift
northwest on Saturday and then Northeast on Sunday but once again
should stay below 15 knots. By Monday winds go back southeast and we
will be expecting some seabreeze thunderstorms in the afternoon
that could drift towards the coast into the evening hours.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 253 PM EDT Thu May 9 2024

After seeing some spotty critical RHs yesterday and today
across the interior we will see a little bit more moisture tomorrow
along with the shower chances north of I-4. However a frontal system
will push through late Friday which will drop RHs even more.
Saturday critical RHs look to stay in the interior but the whole
west coast of FLorida should expected critical RHs with some spots
getting into the 20`s on Sunday. Moisture will quickly return into
early next week.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  77  88  77  88 /   0  20  30  10
FMY  75  92  77  90 /   0   0  20  30
GIF  75  92  74  92 /   0  10  30  10
SRQ  77  88  76  89 /   0  10  30  10
BKV  71  89  69  89 /   0  30  30  10
SPG  78  86  79  86 /   0  20  40  10

&&



.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Shiveley
DECISION SUPPORT...Hubbard
UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...Hubbard