Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL

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FXUS62 KTBW 180659
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
259 AM EDT Sun Aug 18 2019

.DISCUSSION...
Moist and unstable conditions continue early this morning with E
Gulf convection moving ashore coastal areas through daybreak.

Broad upper ridge expected to continue from the W Atlantic through
the Gulf region to over TX with a general weakness in the ridge from
the NE Gulf into the Deep South today through mid week.

Western Atlantic surface high pressure ridge axis now over S FL to
slowly lift Nward today as Deep South frontal boundary washes out.
Deep SW flow continues over N FL for another day of numerous showers
and thunderstorms with highest rain chances over the N Nature Coast
as areal flooding persists across Levy and northwest Citrus
counties, and additional rain will make it difficult for flood
waters to recede so will continue flood watch for those areas today.
Central and SW FL zones begin transistion to SE-S low level flow
precip regimes today, mainly along diurnal seabreeze and outflow
boundaries.

As surface ridge axis weakens and holds over the C FL Peninsula
through late week, precip will develop primarily on afternoon into
evening boundary interactions. By the end of the week into next
weekend series of northern stream upper troughs further suppress
upper ridging over the region with summertime temps and rain
chances continuing.

&&

.AVIATION...
Early morning coastal storms moving ashore to impact flight
conditions thru 12Z then low level winds more southerly today
with late morning/early afternoon sea breeze developing with SCT
SHRA with embedded TSRA possible especially from KSRQ northward
with brief periods of MVFR/IFR conditions possible through this
afternoon, so will hold VCTS.

&&

.MARINE...
Western Atlantic high pressure ridge weakens and the axis lifts over
the central Gulf waters today and holds in place through mid week
with fairly light winds and seas. Continue to expect summertime
showers and thunderstorms to bring locally higher winds and seas.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Abundant moisture with high summertime humidity and rain chances
continue.


.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
TPA  90  76  91  75 /  60  10  40  20
FMY  92  75  91  75 /  40  20  70  20
GIF  92  74  92  75 /  50  30  60  10
SRQ  90  75  91  75 /  60  10  50  20
BKV  90  73  91  73 /  70  30  50  20
SPG  90  76  91  75 /  60  10  40  20

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Flood Watch through this evening for Coastal Citrus-Coastal Levy-
     Inland Citrus-Inland Levy.

     Flood Watch until 4 AM EDT early this morning for Coastal
     Hernando-Coastal Pasco-Inland Hernando-Inland Pasco-Sumter.

Gulf waters...None.
&&

$$

Davis


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