Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL

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FXUS62 KTBW 191954

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
254 PM EST Tue Feb 19 2019

Aloft - A trough from western Canada to the Desert Southwest lifts
up into the Upper Midwest by late Wed as a ridge centered east of
the Bahamas sprawls across much of the Gulf of Mexico. Surface -
a front across central FL weakens through tonight, moves north
Wed, then dissipates.

The early morning low clouds and fog have departed although some
brief cloudiness is possible through out the afternoon. There
could a some low odds of showers later this afternoon and evening...
along and north of the front. With the front lingering just north
of Tampa Bay another night of some fog and lower clouds is
anticipated...mainly impacting aviation and marine interests. As
the front exits Wed high pressure begins push in from the
east...but relaxed enough to allow an afternoon sea breeze. This
will provide a focus of afternoon/evening showers.

For Thu through the weekend...the upper ridge near the Bahamas
dominates much of the Gulf region as a western U.S. trough swings
northwestward to the upper Great Lakes. Surface high pressure over
the lower Great Lakes and New England shifts out over the Atlantic
as it builds down across FL to the Gulf. Warm and stable
conditions continue with enough moisture for isolated to
occasionaly scattered showers. Temperatures will run above normal.

Mon and next Tue...the upper trough over the upper Great Lakes
deepens into a low as it tracks across southern Ontario and
Quebec - shunting the ridging both aloft and surface over FL
southward. This allows a frontal boundary to sag into north or
north-central FL and provide increasing clouds and rain
chances...especially for northern counties. Temperatures continue
warm but with a slight dip.


19/12Z TAF cycle begins with VFR...FEW-SCT CU/SC although there may
be some ST drifting around TIL 20Z. Anticipate another round of
BR/FG under BKN low deck BTWN 07-17Z. Believe CIGS will be main
factor and have them in low MVFR range for now. SE to S winds back
and slacken some over night then shift back to SE near end of main
TAF period.


Sea fog offshore this afternoon is expected to drift back into
the coast...including parts of Tampa Bay...tonight and early Wed.
A warm front exits the area as high pressure begins to builds in
and reduces the fog threat. The high pressure dominates into the
weekend with a relaxed gradient keeping winds 15 knots or less.


A warm and generally stable air mass prevails with adequate moisture
for some showers...patchy late night low RH concerns into
the weekend. A slight increase in winds Wed will create some high
dispersion values.


.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
TPA  69  83  69  82 /  10  20  10  10
FMY  68  86  68  83 /   0  20   0  20
GIF  67  86  67  85 /  10  30  10  20
SRQ  67  81  67  78 /   0  10  10  10
BKV  65  85  66  84 /  20  20  20  10
SPG  69  82  69  80 /  10  10  10  10


Gulf waters...None.


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