Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL

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FXUS62 KTBW 260043
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
843 PM EDT Thu Apr 25 2019

...MARGINAL RISK OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS FRIDAY...

.AVIATION...
Mainly VFR conditions tonight with lcl MVFR field fog in
typical prone areas. Friday broken line of convection for
brief flight restrictions and VCTS/SHRA with gusty SW winds.

&&

.UPDATE...
Forecast on track with warm and humid conditions tonight
with deepening southerly flow and increasing moisture. The
area remains in a marginal risk for strong to severe storms
as a broken line of convection moves through the area
tomorrow.

&&

.Prev Discussion... /issued 255 PM EDT Thu Apr 25 2019/

SHORT TERM (This afternoon - Friday)...
Mid level ridging along the eastern seaboard this afternoon slides
out over the Atlantic tonight as a short wave trough with an
associated cold front near the lower Mississippi Valley propagates
eastward. The trough/front track across the eastern Gulf coast/FL
panhandle later tonight and early Fri then over the FL peninsula
during the morning and afternoon.

Winds become southerly tonight and southwesterly ahead of the front
Fri with increasing moisture...models all indicate a band of PWAT
values close to 2 inches in advance of the front. This moisture
along with lift from the upper trough/front and some instability
from limited daytime heating will support showers and
thunderstorms...with scattered to numerous coverage. These begin
pushing into the Nature Coast shortly before sunrise and central
then southern counties between mid morning and mid afternoon. A
few storms could become strong to marginally severe. The greatest
threat will be isolated damaging wind gusts...along with small
hail and lightning.

MID TERM/LONG TERM (Friday night - Thursday)...
A negatively tilted upper level trough will be lifting out to the
northeast up along the eastern seaboard Friday night with an
attendant cold front and band of showers and storms along and ahead
it exiting to the south of the forecast area. In the wake of theses
features a zonal flow aloft develops during the weekend followed by
upper level ridging building in over the Gulf/Florida during the
early and middle part of next week in response to upper troughing
over the western U.S.. At the surface high pressure building in over
the southeastern states and northern Gulf during the weekend will
shift east into the Atlantic early next week and will extend back to
the west across the northern peninsula through Thursday with a low
level east-southeast wind flow expected across the forecast area. A
fairly dry and increasingly subsident air mass under the ridging
should keep overall rain chances out of the forecast with only
perhaps some isolated diurnal showers (Pops 20 percent) possible
over central and southern interior zones along the sea breeze during
Wednesday and Thursday afternoons as low level moisture slowly
increases across the area. Near seasonal level temperatures on
Saturday will climb to above normal through the remainder of the
period with overnight lows warming to the mid and upper 60s with
even some lower 70s along the coast by early next week, with daytime
highs climbing into the upper 80s to around 90 each afternoon.

MARINE... Prevailing winds/seas 15 knots/4 feet or less as
a cold front moves in Fri bringing showers/thunderstorms
with locally higher winds and seas and a shift in wind
direction. Week high pressure settles in along the northern
Gulf for the weekend then slides out over the Atlantic for
early next week...strengthening as it reaches back to the
Gulf.

FIRE WEATHER...
increasing moisture ahead of an approaching front will preclude
any low RH concerns for Fri but dry air works in Sat with the RH
at 35 percent or less...however winds will be light and not create
red flag conditions. Robust winds... 20 foot and transport...will
result in high dispersion indices Friday. Moisture returns Sun
with the minimum RH staying above critical levels.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
TPA  70  81  63  85 /  10  80   0   0
FMY  70  86  65  87 /   0  50   0   0
GIF  67  83  61  86 /  10  70   0   0
SRQ  70  81  65  85 /   0  70   0   0
BKV  67  81  59  86 /  30  60   0   0
SPG  70  78  65  86 /  10  80   0   0

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.
&&

$$

Davis


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