Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Great Falls, MT

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FXUS65 KTFX 251124
AFDTFX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
524 AM MDT Thu Apr 25 2019

.SYNOPSIS...

Weak cold front may bring a few showers this morning. Mainly dry
conditions, diminished winds, and near normal temperatures are
then expected for the remainder of the day. Friday begins an
active period that may last through the rest of the month. Breezy
conditions, slightly cooler temperatures, and widespread showers
and thunderstorms are all possible for Friday. Active pattern may
then continue into the weekend, with some snow possible on Sunday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Today through Saturday...A weak cold front is currently moving
across northern and central portions this morning. This has made
for a few scattered showers and a switch to north northeast winds.
This front will eventually loose steam later this morning and
influences of weak high pressure ridging are expected to take
over. Expect partly cloudy skies, diminished winds, and near
normal temperatures for the remainder of the day. Mainly dry
conditions will continue through the night with increasing clouds
expected. The first in a series of several upper level
disturbances then looks to bring unsettled weather for Friday.
Mainly northern and southern portions will be impacted in the
morning. Then chances for precipitation will move from west to
east throughout the day and night. Weak instability could provide
for a few thunderstorms. Breezy winds will also be possible for
most areas as the disturbance pushes through. We then see shower
activity become more isolated to scattered Friday night. Saturday
starts off in between systems before a surface low starts to
develop and another upper level trough moves through. The split
energy of this surface low may limit how widespread the next round
of showers are, although most areas will have at least a chance
by Saturday afternoon. This dynamic system looks to also continue
breezy conditions. Temperatures on Saturday look to continue going
on cooling trend, and be slightly below normal for most areas.
Anglin

Saturday Night through Thursday...The surface lows continue to
split their energy Saturday night into Sunday. However, the
Montana low opens the door for a cold front to come out of Canada
and bring widespread precipitation and cold air. The result will
be the possibility for a late season low elevation snow storm for
most areas. The mentioned disturbance pulls away Sunday night,
although upslope flow could bring lingering snow across the area.
Still only low to moderate confidence on snowfalls totals at this
point. By Monday morning lower elevation areas across the central
and north could see 1 to 4 inches, with little across the south.
Mountain areas in the central and northwest however could see 6 to
12+ inches. This will have to be monitored closely for the
potential of winter highlights in the coming days. Monday through
Wednesday we then say a pattern more typical in the winter with a
broad trough over the area and the jet stream dipping to our
south. This will bring continued chances for snow, with perhaps
some rain at times, and well below normal temperatures. Larger
trough moves east by mid week with perhaps some relief possible on
Thursday. Here temperatures could return to near normal with
chances for precipitation diminishing. Anglin

&&

.AVIATION...
Updated 0600 AM MDT Thur Apr 25 2019

Generally VFR conditions will prevail during the forecast period.
A weak cold front may bring some brief MVFR ceilings from north to
central this morning, mainly along and north of a line from KHLN
to KGTF to KLWT. A few showers are also possible with this front,
although confidence was only high enough to include VCSH for sites
with the best chance at this moment. Elsewhere should see VFR
conditions through this morning. High pressure ridge then takes
over for the rest of the day, bringing widespread VFR conditions
and generally light winds. Clouds will begin to increase tonight,
although VFR conditions should remain until showers enter the area
on Friday. Anglin

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  57  40  54  36 /  10   0  60  40
CTB  55  35  49  31 /  20  10  70  40
HLN  62  38  55  34 /  10   0  40  10
BZN  62  34  55  29 /  10   0  90  30
WEY  54  30  52  23 /   0  10  80  30
DLN  65  38  57  30 /  10   0  60  10
HVR  56  37  54  32 /  20  10  50  40
LWT  53  35  53  32 /  10  10  80  60

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls


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