Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42
000
FXUS63 KTOP 270750
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
250 AM CDT Tue Jul 27 2021

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 250 AM CDT Tue Jul 27 2021

Generally good confidence continues with heat index values ranging
around to above 105F through Thursday.  Practice good heat safety
and limit exposure as much as possible.

Little change has taken place in the upper level pattern with same
general observance - mean Westerlies well north of the area into
Canada and a dome of high pressure continuing to steadily build into
the central portions of the CONUS.

This means hot and dry sensible weather with heat advisory level
conditions for the next few days.  As 595 decameter heights build
over the region and H85 temps climb to 25C and higher, surface
temperatures with mixing factored in should climb to the century
degree mark by tomorrow and Thursday over portions of the area.
Can`t rule out some areas push near the 110 degree range but right
now this doesn`t appear to be widespread enough to elevate the heat
advisory to a warning.

Early this morning have some fog mention again with some possible
patchy dense areas over central into portions of north central
Kansas counties.  This should burn off early if it does develop. The
rest of the forecast is dry through Thursday.  Variability is a bit
higher going into Friday and the early part of the weekend.  A weak
back-door cold front may stall and linger over the area.  As the
western ridge amplifies, and upper level trough may begin to dig
back into the northern and central Plains.  This could provide a bit
more shear into the weekend that would lead to some better longevity
of any updrafts that develop into storms along the lingering
boundary which is slow to move south of the area.  Again, uncertain
at this time, but also can`t foresee extending heat headlines into
the Friday and weekend time frame at this time considering thinking
appears to be more consistent with the past few model packages.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday)
Issued at 1125 PM CDT Mon Jul 26 2021

Ridging aloft and general subsidence is expected to keep VFR
conditions in place through Tuesday.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory from noon today to 9 PM CDT Thursday for
KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Drake
AVIATION...Wolters


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.