Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS

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FXUS63 KTOP 222039

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
339 PM CDT Mon Apr 22 2019

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 337 PM CDT Mon Apr 22 2019

No hazardous weather is expected for the short-term forecast period.
The main impacts will be lingering cloud cover and subsequent
temperature forecasts through the overnight period into the day

The upper air pattern is characterized by a low pressure system over
the New England region with a minor shortwave now translating into
he Western Great Lakes with a closed upper low spinning over the
Desert Southwest and Baja region.  The surface cold front has near
made its way through the forecast area separating the more moisture
boundary layer with a more modified continental polar airmass now
working into the region.

This drier air should allow for a mix of sun and clouds for the rest
of the day and overnight period.  Thinking that the dry air will be
ultimately slower to work in than some models forecast with slower
overall progression of the cold front.  Isentropic ascent along the
frontal zone and the low level cold air advection could allow for
mid level cloud cover to linger over the region with even some wrap
around moisture working back into northern areas from the
deformation zone developing over the Great Lakes region. Considering
the amplified pattern from the Southern Plains into portions of the
Mid MS Valley region, high clouds also become a factor this period.

What all this means for temperatures is where the main challenge for
the short-term period has come into play.  Have kept high temps
slightly depressed for the balance of today in the mid 60s and low
70s.  Tonight, temps only drop to the 40s even with cold advection
with cloud cover in the forecast.  Tuesday highs should top out in
the 60s with the lowest temps actually over east central areas due
to possible showers lingering into the afternoon if isentropic
ascent becomes focused this far north aiding in depth of

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 337 PM CDT Mon Apr 22 2019

For the longer range forecast, a quiet week for hazardous weather
threat seems in store.  The split flow pattern will allow for the
closed upper low over the Desert Southwest to slide east into the
Southern Plains region.  Main belt of the Westerlies resides mainly
north of the area even into the weekend.  Overall height rises into
the latter portions of the week should yield a boost in overall
temps each day.  High temperatures range from the 70s by Wednesday
to the low 80s by the weekend while low temps rise from the 40s to
the mid 50s.

Along with the quasi-zonal pattern over the Rockies and high pressure
sliding east of the region into Saturday, should see an increase in
southerly flow over the region.  A main question for this period
will be storms and what variety.  Moisture quality with the
trajectory of return into the region will be a concern.  Also, how
much capping will be in place and what overall hodographs will look
like during the period where a frontal zone moves into the region on
Saturday.  Can`t rule out possible storms but severity is very hard
to pin down at this time.  Will keep a watch on trends over the next
few days, but Saturday into Sunday looks to be the next best chance
of possible impactful weather over the region.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1224 PM CDT Mon Apr 22 2019

MVFR CIGS linger longer than originally anticipated. However,
better mixing is taking place, so the expectation is that MVFR
lift to VFR for the afternoon. Northwest winds persist through
much of the period before gradually veering to the north during
the day tomorrow. Have kept some indication that MVFR stratus
could thicken back up during the overnight into early morning
period. Confidence is presently low with the front moving
southeast of the area and overall drier air moving in.




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