Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Las Vegas, NV

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704
FXUS65 KVEF 190300
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
800 PM PDT Thu Apr 18 2019

.SYNOPSIS...Warm conditions expected through Saturday with high
temperatures climbing well above normal. Increasingly gusty
conditions are expected Saturday afternoon ahead of a disturbance
moving through. Cooler conditions are expected Sunday before
temperatures rebound early next week.

&&
.UPDATE...No significant changes were made to the overnight
forecast. A band of higher clouds will push through overnight, but
cloudy skies are not expected. It is much warmer tonight, with 850mb
temperatures running about 10 degrees warmer than last night per the
00Z sounding. Didnt change overnight lows from previous forecast as
they already showed a solution much warmer than last nights observed
lows. In general, it will be a quiet night with a few passing high
clouds, light winds, and mild temperatures.

&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... ISSUED 208 PM PDT Thu Apr 18 2019
.DISCUSSION...through next Thursday.

Even as the ridge of high pressure shifts east across the Four
Corner states Friday we are looking at our warmest temperatures of
2019 tomorrow. Las Vegas`s official climate station McCarran
International Airport took a run at 90 back on April 8. Confidence
high 90 will be hit or eclipsed tomorrow as for the past 3 days the
GFS/ECMWF ensemble mean temperature guidance has ranged between 90-
92 degrees.

Closed upper low currently west of San Diego will be kicked inland
over southern California tomorrow ahead of strong trough digging
southeast out of the northeast Pacific. Moisture is limited but
models do develop modest instability along the southern Sierra crest
for shower and thunderstorm development. The weaker system will
weaken further as it moves inland through Arizona Saturday. By then,
showers and thunderstorms will be developing across western and
central Nevada ahead of the deeper trough. Those showers and
thunderstorms will spread east into Lincoln and northern Mohave
Counties Sunday and Monday. Stronger westerly winds across Inyo and
San Bernardino Counties Saturday will spread eastward into Clark
County Saturday night. Warm temperatures will continue into Saturday
before cold front ushers into cooling for Easter Sunday.

High pressure returns next week for day and warm temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION...For McCarran...Variable winds this evening becoming
westerly at 4-8 knots overnight. Variable winds once again early
morning Friday becoming easterly up to 8 knots in the later morning
through the afternoon. Southwest winds could return earlier than the
typical diurnal switch on Friday, perhaps as early as 23Z.  Some
increase in high clouds expected but no operationally significant
cloud cover through the TAF period.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...Diurnally driven winds generally under 10 knots through
early Friday morning. Gusty southerly winds 10-15 knots late Friday
morning through the afternoon. KBIH could be an exception with
southwest to west winds 15-20 knots forecast in the late afternoon.
Expect an increase in high clouds tonight but no operationally
significant cloud cover is expected through the TAF period.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.

&&

$$
UPDATE...ASHLEY
DISCUSSION...Pierce
AVIATION...Salmen

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http://weather.gov/lasvegas or follow us on Facebook and Twitter



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