Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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000
ACUS01 KWNS 160148
SWODY1
SPC AC 160146

Day 1 Convective Outlook AMEND 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0846 PM CDT Sat Jun 15 2019

Valid 160130Z - 161200Z

...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED OVER
WEST-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...AND PARTS OF NORTHWEST TEXAS...

UPGRADED TO MODERATE RISK FOR SIGNIFICANT DAMAGING WINDS INTO
OKLAHOMA

...SUMMARY...
Numerous storms capable of damaging wind and hail will spread out of
northwest Texas and into Oklahoma. A tornado remains possible from
Indiana into far southern Ohio, while damaging winds remain possible
from eastern Iowa across parts of northern Illinois this evening.

...Oklahoma and northwest Texas upgrade...
Several stations in northwest TX have measured severe winds in
excess of 80 mph as an MCS takes shape. The 00Z OUN sounding shows a
very unstable profile with steep lapse rates aloft and a deep moist
layer. Although shear profiles are relatively weak, this forward
propagating MCS is expected to produce widespread severe wind gusts,
with areas of significant damage possible.

...Central Indiana into southwest Ohio...
At least two tornadic supercells produced damage across Indiana
earlier this evening in association with a midlevel vort max
interacting with the nose of an instability plume. Radar continues
to show supercells, and a threat of tornadoes continues across the
tornado watch area. Low level shear remains favorable from Indiana
into southwest OH with 0-1 SRH of 200-300 m2/s2, with the most
unstable air over southern Indiana. Aside from a tornado or two, a
damaging wind threat will persist given favorable westerly winds as
storms traverse northern KY into southern OH.

...Eastern Texas Panhandle into Oklahoma...
A complex of severe storms is gradually shifting east across the TX
Panhandle with large hail and areas of damaging wind. The air mass
east of this complex is very moist and unstable, with low 70s F
dewpoints beneath 500 mb temperatures at or below -10 C. Meanwhile,
visible imagery shows TCU over northwest OK near a weak boundary
which is acting as a warm front. With time, both the ongoing
activity and new storms along the warm front will likely increase in
coverage, and will overturn the unstable air mass over OK. While
shear profiles are weak, the convective system will be supported
mainly by propagation, and aided by an increasing southwesterly
low-level jet this evening. But updrafts and downdrafts will be
strong owing to steep lapse rates aloft and PWAT to 1.50-1.60". The
result will be potentially damaging winds across the Enhanced Risk
area, along with hail.

...Southeast Iowa into northern Illinois...
An small MCS is currently over southeast IA, with new cells
developing along the front into northwest MO. Strong instability as
well as a continued feed of high theta-e out of the southwest will
support both a wind and hail threat this evening.

..Jewell.. 06/16/2019

$$


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