Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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000
ACUS03 KWNS 250725
SWODY3
SPC AC 250724

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0224 AM CDT Thu Apr 25 2019

Valid 271200Z - 281200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
NORTH TEXAS AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms associated with a marginal wind damage and hail threat
may develop across parts of north Texas and southern Oklahoma on
Saturday.

...North Texas/Southern Oklahoma...
A west-northwest mid-level flow pattern will be in place across most
of the CONUS on Saturday. A shortwave trough is forecast to move
quickly east-southeastward into the mid Mississippi Valley as a cold
front advances southeastward across the southern Plains. The front
is expected to be positioned around the Red River by late afternoon.
Surface dewpoints ahead of the front in the lower to mid 60s F
should contribute to a pocket of moderate instability across north
Texas by afternoon. Forecast soundings across north Texas show a
capping inversion in place for much of the day, which could weaken
by around 00Z/Sunday. This may be enough to allow for isolated
convective initiation along the front. If this occurs, then the
moderate instability combined with 30 to 40 kt of 0-6 km shear and
steep mid-level lapse rates would be favorable for isolated damaging
wind gusts and hail. Due to the conditionality of this scenario,
will keep the threat level at marginal across north Texas and
southern Oklahoma for Saturday.

..Broyles.. 04/25/2019

$$


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