970
FXAK67 PAJK 272352
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
352 PM AKDT Sat Apr 27 2024

.SHORT TERM...A gale force low moving into the eastern gulf waters
will generate showers for the panhandle. While a wind concern,
mainly covered in the marine section, sporadic areas of moderate
rainfall will accompany this system. Two rounds of rain moving up
from the south look to move over the panhandle, the first tonight
into the overnight hours, and the second set of showers, mainly
for the southern panhandle, for late Sunday morning. Winds over
land look largely unimpressive compared to similar systems.
Naturally, due to the low`s position near PoW Island, highest
wind speeds are expected around southern and eastern PoW Island,
Ketchikan, and Metlakatla.

The low then tracks southward Sunday afternoon and evening will
yield some drying for the southern half of the panhandle with
winds calming. There is the potential for some radiation fog as
winds begin to calm Sunday night with clearing skies. Did not
include this potential in the forecast due to uncertainty on
clearing skies and lower wind speeds as the low moves south.

.LONG TERM.../ Monday to Thursday night / The surface low in the
southeast gulf of Alaska will move south-southeast towards the
Pacific Northwest coastal area by Late Monday night, leaving a
weak ridge in place over the gulf and into the panhandle as and
area of lower pressure persist over the Canadian interior from the
Yukon Territory to Central British Columbia and this situation
holding through Tuesday. Another short wave running along the
southern side of the gulf and will spin up a weak low ( about 1010
mb at present solutions ) and this may spread some rain to the
southern portion of the panhandle, however consistency between
model solutions have forecast trending towards ensemble solutions
and thus a middle of the road forecast at present. Thus mid week
is looking to be dry for the panhandle.


&&

.AVIATION...A marine layer that pushed in along the outer coast
Saturday morning moved offshore during the day. However, a system
advancing north in the gulf will continue a downward trend for
cloud ceilings from the southern panhandle northward and
bring showers. The southern panhandle and outer coast up to Sitka
will see some LLWS with SE winds around 35 kt with the frontal
passage Saturday night. Otherwise expect ceilings for the southern
half of the panhandle to 2500 ft or less, especially for outer
coast, before rebounding later Sunday as the front begins to
weaken and showers diminish. For Icy Strait northward, ceilings
likely to remain above 3000 ft through the period.

&&

.MARINE...Currently shown beautifully on satellite, a gale force
low is meandering into the eastern gulf of Alaska near Prince of
Wales Island. This low will then become stationary through tonight
and into tomorrow, before drifting southward. While gales will be
short lived, mostly along the NE quadrant of the low, widespread
30-35 knot winds will continue through tomorrow afternoon and
evening for the gulf waters.

What is more uncertain is the effect this system will have on the
inner channels. What is most confident is Clarence Strait, which
will see winds up to 25-30 knot sustained winds. For the rest of
the channels, what appears to be an initial front pushing
northward this evening will cause havoc with wind directions. As
the front pushes northward, it will generate winds up to 20 knots
southerlies as it traverses, but it appears to break up as it
hits Icy Strait. However, from the position of the low, most winds
will have a northerly to northeasterly component both before and
after the passing of the front tonight. A secondary push for
tomorrow morning for the southern half of the panhandle will last
longer before transitioning back to northerly with the low moving
south.


&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ661-662.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ035-036-641>643-663-664-671.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NC
LONG TERM....Bezenek
AVIATION...STJ

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